July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

PDX up four degrees between 1:20 and 1:25.  

 

200 by 6pm?   

 

Bye-bye, monthly cold anomaly.  <_>

[Jesse]

Euro ensembles seem to keep the highest heights offshore in the LR as well.

 

Ensemble mean looks pretty zonal overall. Likely lots of disagreement among individual members.

[GobBluth]

Euro ensembles seem to keep the highest heights offshore in the LR as well.

 

Ensemble mean looks pretty zonal overall. Likely lots of disagreement among individual members.

this may end up being a 3 day batch of 90+ days, then back to normal.

[James Jones]

Really nice day. This is Portland summer.

Yep, gorgeous day. Clear skies, 80 degrees, 50 degree dew, and a light breeze is total summer perfection in my book. 

[Jesse]

this may end up being a 3 day batch of 90+ days, then back to normal.

If I were a betting man I'd put my money on something like that.

 

3-4 day stretch of heat followed by maybe a strong marine push? Normal summer fare for our climate.

[luvssnow_spokane]

PDX up four degrees between 1:20 and 1:25.  

 

200 by 6pm?   

Nah... it all about the sun angle ... 

[Jesse]

Nah... it all about the sun angle ... 

 

We've lost 3° of noon-time solar elevation and over 30 minutes of daylight since the solstice now.

 

Rapidly approaching mid-May levels.

[Front Ranger]

We've lost 3° of noon-time solar elevation and over 30 minutes of daylight since the solstice now.

 

Rapidly approaching mid-May levels.

 

Yet climatologically, the warmest 30 day stretch of the year is straight ahead. Brace yourself...though I do believe August will be cooler than July this year.

[Jesse]

Yet climatologically, the warmest 30 day stretch of the year is straight ahead. Brace yourself...though I do believe August will be cooler than July this year.

I think July 15th- August 15th could be argued as the warmest 30-31 day period of the year here.

 

Bold call for August. We'll see.

[Front Ranger]

I think July 15th- August 15th could be argued as the warmest 30-31 day period of the year here.

 

Bold call for August. We'll see.

 

It's very close between 7/15-8/15 and 7/20-8/20. Probably depends on the individual station.

 

Been going with August as the "cool" month of the summer since the forecast contest. If this upcoming ridging episode happens mainly before the end of the month, I like my chances.

 

Either way, I'll be sure to hammer home my points with tons of model maps, obscure analogs, relentless OLM updates, and challenges to others over the coming month.

[Bryant]

SEA is up to a 0 departure and it's only noon.

Your agenda is exhausting to read every single day

[James Jones]

18Z is sure a warm run, not really a major heat wave but just solidly above normal from Sunday onwards. Supports Phil's call of a ridgy period in early August. Hoping the models trend towards a quick spike of heat followed by a crash or a return to more normal conditions.

[Geos]

Very cool.

 

That is a nice area.    

 

Or geoscience work too.

Yeah it seems pretty nice. Got a view clear over to the Olympics - at least the southern end right now. 

 

Definitely a warm one today with that sun angle.

[James Jones]

It's very close between 7/15-8/15 and 7/20-8/20. Probably depends on the individual station.

 

Been going with August as the "cool" month of the summer since the forecast contest. If this upcoming ridging episode happens mainly before the end of the month, I like my chances.

 

Either way, I'll be sure to hammer home my points with tons of model maps, obscure analogs, relentless OLM updates, and challenges to others over the coming month.

Just adding to this, nearly every every day from July 10 through August 17 has a record high of 100+ at PDX with a pronounced dropoff from the 18th on with only a few scattered 100+ days here and there. SEA shows the same thing, with nearly every day from the 2nd week of July until August 17th with a record high in the mid 90s or higher, but they're much rarer from the 18th onwards.

 

Also it's an odd quirk of history that PDX has never hit 100 during the first 3 days of August, considering that's basically the absolute peak of our summer climo. The only other days in that 7/10 to 8/17 stretch that have failed to hit 100 are 7/22 and 7/26.

[Front Ranger]

Just adding to this, nearly every every day from July 10 through August 17 has a record high of 100+ at PDX with a pronounced dropoff from the 18th on with only a few scattered 100+ days here and there. SEA shows the same thing, with nearly every day from the 2nd week of July until August 17th with a record high in the mid 90s or higher, but they're much rarer from the 18th onwards.

 

Also it's an odd quirk of history that PDX has never hit 100 during the first 3 days of August, considering that's basically the absolute peak of our summer climo. The only other days in that 7/10 to 8/17 stretch that have failed to hit 100 are 7/22 and 7/26.

 

This is exactly what makes 9/2/88 (1988...Tim's fav!) one of the most spectacularly anomalous days in PNW history.

 

SLE: 104

PDX: 105 (3 degrees warmer than they've ever been in June, and 4 degrees warmer than any other September day)

SEA: 98 (only 1 degree cooler than their hottest August day on record and 4 degrees warmer than any other September day)

 

Only other comparable September event would be 1944, but I think that one was a tad cooler overall.

[TT-SEA]

Or geoscience work too.

Yeah it seems pretty nice. Got a view clear over to the Olympics - at least the southern end right now. 

 

Definitely a warm one today with that sun angle.

 

Sun angle is higher at your home in WI.

[Jesse]

New monthly high for PDX today.

 

84.

[James Jones]

This is exactly what makes 9/2/88 (1988...Tim's fav!) one of the most spectacularly anomalous days in PNW history.

 

SLE: 104

PDX: 105 (3 degrees warmer than they've ever been in June, and 4 degrees warmer than any other September day)

SEA: 98 (only 1 degree cooler than their hottest August day on record and 4 degrees warmer than any other September day)

 

Only other comparable September event would be 1944, but I think that one was a tad cooler overall.

Yep, definitely a crazy heat wave. I think 9/2/88 also has the warmest 850mb temps on record for the western lowlands, which makes sense because how else would you get that warm in early September?

 

http://i.imgur.com/8jBzKot.png

 

 

 

 http://i.imgur.com/vQ6HyOd.png?1

[TT-SEA]

80/60 at SEA for a +3.5

[Front Ranger]

80/60 at SEA for a +3.5

 

DP down to 53...watch out for the midnight low.

[seattleweatherguy]

DP down to 53...watch out for the midnight low.

Lower dp equals colder lows?

[TT-SEA]

Lower dp equals colder lows?

 

 

Sometimes.

 

Although the dewpoint will probably go up again this evening after the daytime mixing settles down.

 

GFS MOS shows 67 still at 11 p.m. and low of 58 by morning.    Also shows a high tomorrow of 82.   

 

Enjoy the cold weather!

[Deweydog]

I was a +10 today thanks to all the butt crunches I've been doing lately.

[FroYoBro]

I was a +10 today thanks to all the butt crunches I've been doing lately.

 

Wow. I didn't know this was an adult fantasy forum. 

[Front Ranger]

Wow. I didn't know this was an adult fantasy forum. 

 

This forum has a rich history of fantasies and delusions.

[TT-SEA]

81/61 at WFO SEA today.

 

And OLM was baking at +5 which blew away the +4 at SEA and +4 at BLI

[TT-SEA]

I think this might be the first time this month when the sky was almost completely clear across the region.

 

[TT-SEA]

Friday and Saturday are cooler on the 00Z GFS.    It found yet one more trough for Saturday that was not there before.

[MossMan]

Friday and Saturday are cooler on the 00Z GFS. It found yet one more trough for Saturday that was not there before.

How does tomorrow look? I swapped my normal Friday off for tomorrow since all signs were pointing towards a nice Thursday and a crappy Friday. Planning on playing on the lake all day tomorrow!

[TT-SEA]

How does tomorrow look? I swapped my normal Friday off for tomorrow since all signs were pointing towards a nice Thursday and a crappy Friday. Planning on playing on the lake all day tomorrow!

 

 

Looks awesome... get out by noon.   There could be some clouds and possible convection later in the afternoon.  

 

Here is 2 p.m.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_tsfc.21.0000.gif

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/intcld.21.0000.gif

[Phil]

Ridge is much farther west on the long range 00z GFS. Why does this feel familiar?

[TT-SEA]

Ridge is much farther west on the long range 00z GFS. Why does this feel familiar?

 

Now the Goofus is right in the 10-15 day range?

[Phil]

Now the Goofus is right in the 10-15 day range?

Did I say that?

 

GooFuS does roughy match the 12z EPS, though.

[Phil]

12z EPS looked like this d7-12. Keeps shifting the ridge west:

 

[Geos]

It cleared out really nicely to the west near sunset tonight.

 

 

Peaked at 82° here.

[ShawniganLake]

I think this might be the first time this month when the sky was almost completely clear across the region.

 

Ha. And it rained where I was working for about 1/2hr this afternoon.

[Jesse]

12z EPS looked like this d7-12. Keeps shifting the ridge west:

 

image.png

 

Yup, I noticed that earlier today.

 

Definitely like the way this is trending. Such a different feel to everything than the last 2-3 summers.

[Phil]

00z ECMWF farther west again, ridge starting to overturn by d9. Verbatim, would begin another discontinuous retrogression.

[Phil]

Chilly air gets into west-central WA by d9. This has the looks of a ridge that will end up in the GOA.

[Deweydog]

Chilly air gets into west-central WA by d9. This has the looks of a ridge that will end up in the GOA.

Brrrrrrrr!

 

Looks like three blanket nights in the 8-10 day range.