OKwx2k4 Posted October 28, 2016 Report Share Posted October 28, 2016 JB releasing final winter forecast today after markets close. Gave a quick glance of some analogs to see but there were a ton of them. The ones that had my attention and have for awhile now were 1983-84, 2010-11, and 2013-14. Said big time cold from Thanksgiving to Christmas, then reloading and doing it again. Also said euro is too warm. Good stuff. SOI is now also negative. Can't wait to crack this monster ridge and heat. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 28, 2016 Report Share Posted October 28, 2016 All the Great Lakes are running way above normal for the time of year....big time fuel for LES when the Arctic Attack hits later in November! Those lakes are smokin'! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 28, 2016 Report Share Posted October 28, 2016 This guy says "just chill" CONUS! Brrr 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 28, 2016 Report Share Posted October 28, 2016 This guy says "just chill" CONUS! Brrr 20161028 Michael Clark 2016-17 winter analog temps.PNGHoly smokes! I think that guy stole my map! Lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 28, 2016 Report Share Posted October 28, 2016 Wow. As jb said on his daily update today, 83-84 analog is in play. That was one of the coldest, snowiest winters in Nebraska history. I was in middle school (junior high) and we had many snow days along with brutal cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2016 Saw this post from a met using the Nov-Dec '83/'95 analog... Snowfall averages for those months in the cities below: SYR 46.1" BOS 28.2" ORD 16.8" NYC 14.4" If ORD can average nearly 50% of normal snowfall by end of Dec, I'll take it. Interesting times ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 28, 2016 Report Share Posted October 28, 2016 Saw this post from a met using the Nov-Dec '83/'95 analog... Snowfall averages for those months in the cities below: SYR 46.1" BOS 28.2" ORD 16.8" NYC 14.4" If ORD can average nearly 50% of normal snowfall by end of Dec, I'll take it. Interesting times ahead. Was about to post this but you Ninja'd me LOL. Here's Allan Huffman's take: https://t.co/AqIaHRdhM5 I like his Other ENSO thoughts, and his snowfall map aligns with mine, except I think it should extend the above normal zone further SW down to OkWx's backyard. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 28, 2016 Report Share Posted October 28, 2016 Wow. As jb said on his daily update today, 83-84 analog is in play. That was one of the coldest, snowiest winters in Nebraska history. I was in middle school (junior high) and we had many snow days along with brutal cold. If you go to the link I posted above, you will see the departures for Dec '83! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 28, 2016 Report Share Posted October 28, 2016 I had never seen the BSR performance graph. Didn't even know anybody had one tbh. Might be worth following this next storm though I'm not clear exactly how it works? Anyone out here that can clarify how it is best used as a tool to forecast the next storm's potential across the lower 48? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 28, 2016 Report Share Posted October 28, 2016 Was about to post this but you Ninja'd me LOL. Here's Allan Huffman's take: https://t.co/AqIaHRdhM5 I like his Other ENSO thoughts, and his snowfall map aligns with mine, except I think it should extend the above normal zone further SW down to OkWx's backyard. Thanks. That's where 2010 analog comes in. Almost identical heights just stretched back west further. Once the suppression hits, I'll be just fine. :-) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 28, 2016 Report Share Posted October 28, 2016 This guy says "just chill" CONUS! Brrr 20161028 Michael Clark 2016-17 winter analog temps.PNGThat is cold stuff!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted October 29, 2016 Report Share Posted October 29, 2016 Another probably pretty easy question, but what does the temperature anomaly actually measure. I always look at it and think, "oh, 3 degrees, big woop". I am surely missing something in my ever-growing knowledge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted October 29, 2016 Report Share Posted October 29, 2016 Jim Flowers posted a video today and mentioned 1959/1960 as one of his top analogs regarding the winter pattern. 59/60 was top 5 snowiest for many in Nebraska. We are beyond due for one like that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 29, 2016 Report Share Posted October 29, 2016 Jim Flowers posted a video today and mentioned 1959/1960 as one of his top analogs regarding the winter pattern. 59/60 was top 5 snowiest for many in Nebraska. We are beyond due for one like that.I'm glad to see a pro met included '59-'60. I know a lot of meteorologists and climatologists don't like to go that far back but I thought it was an ideal fit this year as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 29, 2016 Report Share Posted October 29, 2016 Another probably pretty easy question, but what does the temperature anomaly actually measure. I always look at it and think, "oh, 3 degrees, big woop". I am surely missing something in my ever-growing knowledge.The anomaly really depends on the length of time that it is forecast to be -3 over. For instance, if you say it is going to be 3º below average tomorrow, that's pretty simple to figure out. However, if you say it's going to be -3º below average for the next 10 days, you could arrive at that average any number of ways. You could have the first 5 at say 10º above average and another 5 during a cold wave at an average of -16º and still arrive at -3. Same concept applies over the course of a month or a season due to weather being ever changing. You'll very rarely ever see it just stay at -3 over a large duration. If it were like that then it would be no big deal at all. Hope this helps. When you read us reference months like December 1983 or January 2011 and talk about the massive cold waves that came during those times, they were offset partially by the fact that parts of my state set high temperature records in the week before or the week after those very memorable events. Hence you see averages like -6 instead of -20. -3 is a pretty cold month when it's broken down like that. Again I hope I was of some help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2016 I think a lot of members near I-80 would be quite happy by Jan 1st...the dark purple is 20"+ of snow OTG... ...signals of an active storm track and cold for central CONUS. http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/10/29/basis00/namk/weas/17010100_2900.gif Jan 22nd... http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/10/29/basis00/namk/weas/17012200_2900.gif 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted October 29, 2016 Report Share Posted October 29, 2016 Now that is something that strikes my fancy. Hopefully it is a sign of things to come! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 29, 2016 Report Share Posted October 29, 2016 I think a lot of members near I-80 would be quite happy by Jan 1st...the dark purple is 20"+ of snow OTG... ...signals of an active storm track and cold for central CONUS. http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/10/29/basis00/namk/weas/17010100_2900.gif Jan 22nd... http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/10/29/basis00/namk/weas/17012200_2900.gifMy God. Nice! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 30, 2016 Report Share Posted October 30, 2016 It would be fun to see a winter storm pop up somewhere in the upper Midwest or plains in the next couple weeks. GFs shows no cold outbreaks in the next two weeks. I'm interested to see how this winter pans out. Based on everything I have seen on here and other places, I am expecting a fairly typical winter at least in my backyard. It's been a warm summer and fall so we will need a pattern break to get the cold winter being predicted by many. If one believes the LRC then the beginning of the cycle would seem to support above average temps early in the cycle. I know the start and length of the cycle has not yet been determined but it is underway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 31, 2016 Report Share Posted October 31, 2016 Looking for more clues for the winter of 2016/17At this time it looks like we may end to having an neutral ENSO going back to 1950 here is a list of years that have had past neutral ENSO’s remember the years as referred to here start in September and run to the next August. Thus 1979 would run from September 1979 to August 1980.The neutral ENSO years 2008, 2006, 2005, 2004,2003,2001,1999,1996,1995,1994,1993,1992,1990,1989,1985,1984,1983,1980,1979,1978,1977,1968,1966,1962,1961,1960,1959,1958,1953,1952 and 1950. In the neutral ENSO winters here in Grand Rapids the average mean snow fall total has been 78.1” (around 75” is average for all years The top 3 snowiest winters (in that group) were 104.9” in 2008/09, 104.7” in 1958/59 and 98.1” in 2000/01. And on the flip side the 3 least snowy neutral years were 39.7” in 1952/53, 48.5” in 1979/80 and 51.5” in 1980/81. So how much snow will fall here in Grand Rapids this winter (2016/17) well its safe to say somewhere between 40 and 104” with between 70 to 80” being a good bet at this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Grey Posted October 31, 2016 Report Share Posted October 31, 2016 Looking for more clues for the winter of 2016/17At this time it looks like we may end to having an neutral ENSO going back to 1950 here is a list of years that have had past neutral ENSO’s remember the years as referred to here start in September and run to the next August. Thus 1979 would run from September 1979 to August 1980.The neutral ENSO years 2008, 2006, 2005, 2004,2003,2001,1999,1996,1995,1994,1993,1992,1990,1989,1985,1984,1983,1980,1979,1978,1977,1968,1966,1962,1961,1960,1959,1958,1953,1952 and 1950. In the neutral ENSO winters here in Grand Rapids the average mean snow fall total has been 78.1” (around 75” is average for all years The top 3 snowiest winters (in that group) were 104.9” in 2008/09, 104.7” in 1958/59 and 98.1” in 2000/01. And on the flip side the 3 least snowy neutral years were 39.7” in 1952/53, 48.5” in 1979/80 and 51.5” in 1980/81. So how much snow will fall here in Grand Rapids this winter (2016/17) well its safe to say somewhere between 40 and 104” with between 70 to 80” being a good bet at this time.2012/2013 and 2013/2014 were neutral winters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2016 Taking a look at the ever-expanding snow cover in Eurasia, nearly all of Russia has a snowpack as of yesterday! Very impressive... Oct 29th... http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/prvsnow_asiaeurope.gif Oct 30th... http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif Northern Hemisphere & Eurasian snow cover nearing the Top 3 spot... http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/plots/daily_snow_extent/multisensor_4km_nh_snow_extent_by_year_graph.png http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/plots/daily_snow_extent/multisensor_4km_ea_snow_extent_by_year_graph.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2016 NCAR CESM DJF forecast... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2016 The Polar Vortex is expected to shift towards Scandinavia and re-energize itself over the next 10 days. Having done so, the upper air pattern will be conducive to produce a Cross Polar Flow pattern into N.A. as we head deeper into November. Temps near Siberia are going to be extremely frigid nearing -20/-25F region wide. We may be starting to tap into that air moving forward, esp if GFS is right about a potential SSW event developing near Siberia. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016103106/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_21.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 31, 2016 Report Share Posted October 31, 2016 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 were neutral winters.Thanks.I added the winters of 2012/13 and 2013/14 and the snow fall range at Grand Rapids, MI with the two years added is now between 40" and 116.0" with a mean of 79.5" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 31, 2016 Report Share Posted October 31, 2016 @ Tom Just need the Cubbies to win a pair first! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 31, 2016 Report Share Posted October 31, 2016 Thanks.I added the winters of 2012/13 and 2013/14 and the snow fall range at Grand Rapids, MI with the two years added is now between 40" and 116.0" with a mean of 79.5" I'd lean towards that larger number if it were me. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 31, 2016 Report Share Posted October 31, 2016 I am thinking 140" for my area. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 31, 2016 Report Share Posted October 31, 2016 The Polar Vortex is expected to shift towards Scandinavia and re-energize itself over the next 10 days. Having done so, the upper air pattern will be conducive to produce a Cross Polar Flow pattern into N.A. as we head deeper into November. Temps near Siberia are going to be extremely frigid nearing -20/-25F region wide. We may be starting to tap into that air moving forward, esp if GFS is right about a potential SSW event developing near Siberia. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016103106/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_21.pngPush that blue a tad southward and bang!!!! Arctic Express over the lower 48 states. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 31, 2016 Report Share Posted October 31, 2016 Russia literally filled completely the rest of the way up with snow yesterday. SAI should be famtastic. I guess there will be no running from it if it fails this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 31, 2016 Report Share Posted October 31, 2016 Russia literally filled completely the rest of the way up with snow yesterday. SAI should be famtastic. I guess there will be no running from it if it fails this year. That would be an epic, epic failure indeed. On another board, grumblings of "all the cold's over there" and "there's just zero cold to be tapped on our side due to the NPAC alignment". Some saying the cold isn't here now and we may be forever teased by models showing phantom cold outbreaks ala 2011-12. Decided to look back and compare where we stood in that infamous autumn. Here's 5 yrs ago today: Here's yesterday (latest avail): There's certainly more overall, and there's already been more across Canada than ever was in 2011. Plus, you can see the rogue storm along the EC. Even DT will tell you that Oct snowstorms along the EC are a negative sign for eastern US winters. Takeaway: I'm seeing enough significant differences to feel good that this isn't like that season. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 31, 2016 Report Share Posted October 31, 2016 Hoffman in S. Bend (he always maintained a "weenie-free zone" so you'll never see anything crazy from him). He notes his departure's actually pretty cold though: http://www.wndu.com/content/news/Mikes-Winter-Outlook-for-2016-2017-398983361.html Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 31, 2016 Report Share Posted October 31, 2016 That would be an epic, epic failure indeed. On another board, grumblings of "all the cold's over there" and "there's just zero cold to be tapped on our side due to the NPAC alignment". Some saying the cold isn't here now and we may be forever teased by models showing phantom cold outbreaks ala 2011-12. Decided to look back and compare where we stood in that infamous autumn. Here's 5 yrs ago today: 20161031_NHemi_Snowcover_Oct31_2011.gif Here's yesterday (latest avail): 20161031_NHemi_Snowcover_Oct30_2016.gif There's certainly more overall, and there's already been more across Canada than ever was in 2011. Plus, you can see the rogue storm along the EC. Even DT will tell you that Oct snowstorms along the EC are a negative sign for eastern US winters. Takeaway: I'm seeing enough significant differences to feel good that this isn't like that season.Yeah, I don't think we have anything at all to worry about. If I don't get snow this year it will be pure random bad luck in an otherwise great pattern. 11-12 was the second most boring winter I've ever had behind last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 31, 2016 Report Share Posted October 31, 2016 Yeah, I don't think we have anything at all to worry about. If I don't get snow this year it will be pure random bad luck in an otherwise great pattern. 11-12 was the second most boring winter I've ever had behind last year. At least I could drive a few hrs north and catch a Big Dog and about 36" OTG in Kalkaska to get a snow fix. Not sure I could go to a zone like yours. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 31, 2016 Report Share Posted October 31, 2016 At least I could drive a few hrs north and catch a Big Dog and about 36" OTG in Kalkaska to get a snow fix. Not sure I could go to a zone like yours.I remember hearing and reading some stupidly crazy hype about how awesome that winter was going to be here. Of course after coming off a 25" winter and then a 33" winter at the time plus the greatest ice storm of my lifetime in '08. I was all in for it too. I just got so mad watching 33 and 34 degree rain and then add to that seeing it snow everywhere but here (it seemed like) on Christmas day after so much hype about how we were supposed to have a white Christmas down here. I about lost my mind. Lol. Winter was over after that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 31, 2016 Report Share Posted October 31, 2016 I remember hearing and reading some stupidly crazy hype about how awesome that winter was going to be here. Of course after coming off a 25" winter and then a 33" winter at the time plus the greatest ice storm of my lifetime in '08. I was all in for it too. I just got so mad watching 33 and 34 degree rain and then add to that seeing it snow everywhere but here (it seemed like) on Christmas day after so much hype about how we were supposed to have a white Christmas down here. I about lost my mind. Lol. Winter was over after that. Most memorable event was the first snow(storm) on Nov 29th. Got pounded by 2"/hr fatties and 8.5" later it was quite the thump. Heaviest paste like 8:1 stuff too so tons of damage came with it. Needless to say I too was pumped for the upcoming winter. That was the only real snow we got that year and then went more than 2 yrs before we got a legit Warning criteria synoptic storm! Forgettable times for sure! Let's hope this bodes much better for both of our regions! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 31, 2016 Report Share Posted October 31, 2016 Most memorable event was the first snow(storm) on Nov 29th. Got pounded by 2"/hr fatties and 8.5" later it was quite the thump. Heaviest paste like 8:1 stuff too so tons of damage came with it. Needless to say I too was pumped for the upcoming winter. That was the only real snow we got that year and then went more than 2 yrs before we got a legit Warning criteria synoptic storm! Forgettable times for sure! Let's hope this bodes much better for both of our regions! 20161031 Judah Cohen tweet on snowcvr.PNGI think it will. I'm still hugely in favor of a progression like the years 1983, 1977 and 2010. I don't really see cause to waver from it. The months don't line up on top of each other but if you take and follow them month for month from September through February in each year, the nature of what I'm seeing really stands out. If the cold comes in the east in the latter half of this month, then the next major cold wave after it is going to drive straight through the heart of the country and stay for a great while. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 31, 2016 Report Share Posted October 31, 2016 CFS looking cold for early Dec: Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 31, 2016 Report Share Posted October 31, 2016 CFS looking cold for early Dec: 20161031 JB on CFS cold Dec.PNGI'd put a couple of storm tracks in that blue area too for the winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 31, 2016 Report Share Posted October 31, 2016 I'd put a couple of storm tracks in that blue area too for the winter. That's so Jan 1918 with the cold centered right over IN, OH, KY You'll get your storm this year buddy. (CFS snow maps for next 45 days = get the snow removal equipment ready here in SMI. 3 of 4 members show significant amounts here) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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