August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

NAM is similar to the GFS.

 

It'd be interesting to see that scenario play out. Really unusual scenario this early.

 

 

Yeah... feels like a late September or early October warm spell set up but with mid-August sun angle and 850mb temps.  

[Jesse]

NAM is similar to the GFS.

 

It'd be interesting to see that scenario play out. Really unusual scenario this early.

Basically some late August backdoor action.

 

Great burn of 1910 redux?

[Deweydog]

Basically some late August backdoor action.

 

Great burn of 1910 redux?

Horse drawn fire apparatus and all!

[Front Ranger]

NAM is similar to the GFS.

 

It'd be interesting to see that scenario play out. Really unusual scenario this early.

Sounds like climo should show itself to the window?

[TT-SEA]

Great weather and the Mariners on fire... the peak of this summer no doubt!

[Front Ranger]

0z Euro will be worth staying up for.

[Front Ranger]

Great weather and the Mariners on fire... the peak of this summer no doubt!

If there was ever a post engineered to annoy certain members...

[TT-SEA]

If there was ever a post engineered to annoy certain members...

 

 

And yet... this is great summer weather and the Mariners are playing for the postseason.    I find both of those things very enjoyable.  

[Jesse]

That run is hilarious.

30 still within reach?

[Front Ranger]

And yet... this is great summer weather and the Mariners are playing for the postseason. I find both of those things very enjoyable.

I get it. Sticking to the facts. That's what you do.

 

Although, I do remember you saying a couple weeks ago that summer 2016 had been more enjoyable than summer 2015, which was too hot. A bit odd you are now praising hotter weather.

[TT-SEA]

I get it. Sticking to the facts. That's what you do.

 

Although, I do remember you saying a couple weeks ago that summer 2016 had been more enjoyable than summer 2015, which was too hot. A bit odd you are now praising hotter weather.

 

 

Not that hot... low 80s today and the next couple days.   Probably only a couple days around 90 here.

 

Its just nice to have a solidly sunny and warm pattern before summer is over.   

 

Good balance.   

[Front Ranger]

Not that hot... low 80s today and the next couple days. Probably only a couple days around 90 here.

 

Its just nice to have a solidly sunny and warm pattern before summer is over.

 

Good balance.

Just when it couldn't get any nicer, it did.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty safe to say it's impossible to have a region wide cool August here anymore.  What a joke this summer has been. We were in a troughy pattern at least 80% of the time from mid June to August 10 with nothing to show for it temperature anomaly wise.  Now of course we get into a warm pattern and it achieves anywhere from what it should to major over performance.  This climate is nothing close to what it used to be and I hate it.  Pure and simple.

[snow_wizard]

I am almost considering doing a house swap with somebody that lives in a climate that would actually be enjoyable to me.  That could be more doable than having to go through all the rigamoral of selling and buying.

 

This climate can go f**k itself up, down, and sideways.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty safe to say it's impossible to have a region wide cool August here anymore.  What a joke this summer has been. We were in a troughy pattern at least 80% of the time from mid June to August 10 with nothing to show for it temperature anomaly wise.  Now of course we get into a warm pattern and it achieves anywhere from what it should to major over performance.  This climate is nothing close to what it used to be and I hate it.  Pure and simple.

In the grips of Nina forcing and a tanking PDO.

 

Still a pretty enjoyable summer.

 

Stop worrying about cold anomalies and enjoy the sunshine. Rumor has it that it rains a lot here for much of the year.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, I'm starting to feel that way about winters here in the PNW. If we don't get big snowstorms during these next few La Nina winters then our climate might never come back.

 

I have gotten to the point where I just loathe it here.  I'm old enough to where I can remember when this climate was actually interesting.

[TT-SEA]

I have gotten to the point where I just loathe it here.  I'm old enough to where I can remember when this climate was actually interesting.

 

 

You are ridiculous.  

 

Last week you were bragging about our awesome summers.   Winter is always a crapshoot and it rains most of the time regardless.  

 

You need to find some activities that allow you to enjoy our great summer weather.     It is fleeting but makes the crap the rest of the year much more tolerable.   

[James Jones]

Come on Tim, just let the guy vent. We've just had three years of generally unfavorable weather for guys like Jim, and after a couple months of normalcy, we're back in the midst of what looks to be another record breaking stretch of heat. You'd be pretty annoyed too if we were working on our 4th consecutive 2010ish summer.

[Jesse]

Come on Tim, just let the guy vent. We've just had three years of generally unfavorable weather for guys like Jim, and after a couple months of normalcy, we're back in the midst of what looks to be another record breaking stretch of heat. You'd be pretty annoyed too if we were working on our 4th consecutive 2010ish summer.

You are missing an important detail, though. Tim's preferences are correct and upstanding, Jim's are not.

[snow_wizard]

Come on Tim, just let the guy vent. We've just had three years of generally unfavorable weather for guys like Jim, and after a couple months of normalcy, we're back in the midst of what looks to be another record breaking stretch of heat. You'd be pretty annoyed too if we were working on our 4th consecutive 2010ish summer.

 

Incredibly well stated.  I'm exhausted by all of the warmth the last few years.

[TT-SEA]

Come on Tim, just let the guy vent. We've just had three years of generally unfavorable weather for guys like Jim, and after a couple months of normalcy, we're back in the midst of what looks to be another record breaking stretch of heat. You'd be pretty annoyed too if we were working on our 4th consecutive 2010ish summer.

 

Yeah... most of this summer has been pretty much normal.     That should be good for everyone.

 

Summer should not be just slightly better than winter.   That is not interesting or fun in my opinion.  

[snow_wizard]

You are missing an important detail, though. Tim's preferences are correct and upstanding, Jim's are not.

 

If this pattern becomes established we could be looking at a nightmare like Aug / Sept 1967.  That winter wasn't nearly good enough to make it worth it.

[TT-SEA]

Incredibly well stated.  I'm exhausted by all of the warmth the last few years.

 

 

I like summer to be summer.   Winter will do what it wants.  

 

We already have some of the coolest summer weather in the country.  

[Jesse]

If this pattern becomes established we could be looking at a nightmare like Aug / Sept 1967. That winter wasn't nearly good enough to make it worth it.

I can't even begin to fathom how we could possibly in for more major, prolonged warmth like that after the last few years. Give the models some time to settle.

[Jesse]

Surprising amount of ensemble support for the "rogue" GFS run.

[snow_wizard]

Surprising amount of ensemble support for the "rogue" GFS run.

 

It will probably verify.  The trend the past week has been for the models to do away with anything interesting / cool and replace it with major warmth.

[snow_wizard]

Don't worry, the following few winters have the set-up to bring it all back. This is the most excited I've ever been for a winter season.

 

If we can get the anomalous GOA ridge back we might be fine for winter.  I'm just irritated to have go through another endless run of much above normal temperatures.

[James Jones]

Yeah... most of this summer has been pretty much normal.     That should be good for everyone.

 

Summer should not be just slightly better than winter.   That is not interesting or fun in my opinion.  

Sure, I like summer too. My guess is even Jim and Jesse like our typical summers. And weren't you saying recently that last summer was too hot?

 

Also, slightly better than winter? A normal summer is mostly sunny with lots of days in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Goes without saying that it doesn't really resemble winter at all.

[TT-SEA]

If we can get the anomalous GOA ridge back we might be fine for winter.  I'm just irritated to have go through another endless run of much above normal temperatures.

 

 

Hopefully the 1991-2020 averages will take care of that problem... cold anomalies will become easier to achieve.  

[Jesse]

Sure, I like summer too. My guess is even Jim and Jesse like our typical summers. And weren't you saying recently that last summer was too hot?

 

Also, slightly better than winter? A normal summer is mostly sunny with lots of days in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Goes without saying that it doesn't really resemble winter at all.

Absolutely love our typical summers.

[TT-SEA]

Sure, I like summer too. My guess is even Jim and Jesse like our typical summers. And weren't you saying recently that last summer was too hot?

 

Also, slightly better than winter? A normal summer is mostly sunny with lots of days in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Goes without saying that it doesn't really resemble winter at all.

 

 

Right.    That is the way it should be.   

 

Someone was celebrating upper 50s and drizzle on SeaFair Sunday... that is just slightly better than winter on a day that should be the opposite of winter in Seattle in every way.   

 

Warmer than normal is still summery.  

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF still has the cool down early next week... all is well with the world again!  

 

Of course it also has another heat wave later next week.  

[snow_wizard]

I have a feeling this is going to be a long run of warmth.  The pattern has reverted to almost identical to what dominated last summer and the MJO looks to be stuck in the same region it is now for quite some time.  This is probably going to ruin the progress we made on the PDO also.

[Jesse]

If we can get the anomalous GOA ridge back we might be fine for winter. I'm just irritated to have go through another endless run of much above normal temperatures.

It is very annoying. Especially in light of the past few years.

 

I still think this is a hiccup in an overall regime shift, though.

[Jesse]

I have a feeling this is going to be a long run of warmth. The pattern has reverted to almost identical to what dominated last summer and the MJO looks to be stuck in the same region it is now for quite some time. This is probably going to ruin the progress we made on the PDO also.

00z Euro looked a bit better.

[Karl Bonner]

00z GFS and Euro sure look interesting with the Canadian high pressure in Montana late Thursday / early Friday.  Especially given that it's only the 3rd week of August.  This is more of a late September-like east wind!

[Phil]

Incredibly well stated. I'm exhausted by all of the warmth the last few years.

I'm just as miserable, dude. Trust me, I get it.

 

After our warmest winter on record, we followed with our cloudiest/nastiest April/May on record, now yet another nasty summer that'll finish with 50-60 days above 90 degrees, and over 70 days with heat indices above 100 degrees.

 

Not to mention we've had three consecutive 100+ days, could be #4 today.

[Phil]

I am almost considering doing a house swap with somebody that lives in a climate that would actually be enjoyable to me. That could be more doable than having to go through all the rigamoral of selling and buying.

 

This climate can go f**k itself up, down, and sideways.

You should move to Maine or Alaska or something.

[Phil]

I have a feeling this is going to be a long run of warmth. The pattern has reverted to almost identical to what dominated last summer and the MJO looks to be stuck in the same region it is now for quite some time. This is probably going to ruin the progress we made on the PDO also.

There's no reason to be panicking about anything. The last three summers have interestingly developed a -IOD circulation hence the somewhat eastward bias in the low frequency forcing.

 

This is intraseasonal, though, as opposed to low frequency.

[TT-SEA]

I am almost considering doing a house swap with somebody that lives in a climate that would actually be enjoyable to me. That could be more doable than having to go through all the rigamoral of selling and buying.

 

This climate can go f**k itself up, down, and sideways.

A house swap is easier? That sounds like a complete mess. And you can sell your house in minutes right now in King County with multiple offers above the asking price.

 

And by the way... it seems like every time we drive through Montana in the summer its always too hot. I swear every trip my wife or my kids says that its too hot here during our many stops.

 

We did the entire trip over the weekend but this time we had to get my sons to camp on the Oregon Coast before going home. We came into Portland through the Gorge on the way to the coast and stopped at IHOP in Beaverton around 10 a.m. on Sunday morning. We all got out of the car and everyone commented on how nice it was to be back in our own climate. It just has a different feel. More gentle and the air smells better.

 

By far the most beautiful part of the entire trip was from Hood River to Tillamook. Portland looked vibrant and alive unlike the sleepy, hazy towns in Montana. It was a sensory explosion of green and blue and activity. They were having a bike event over the bridges and even on the freeways... and all the boats on the Columbia. Sure looked like a nice place to live.

 

The same can be said coming into Seattle on our trips. Sure we have to put up with more clouds and rain... but it's worth it in the big picture.