August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Looks like BLI had a high of just 67 today. After a low of just 60 this morning. I smell another midnight low coming.

[Jesse]

Looks like BLI had a high of just 67 today. After a low of just 60 this morning. I smell another midnight low coming.

 

Pretty decent crash. Most people saw a ~20 degree drop in highs today, and there should be another 3-5 degrees shaved off tomorrow, at least down here.

[Deweydog]

Shades of 2008 if PDX can find a way to score a 69 degree high tomorrow.

[Jesse]

Shades of 2008 if PDX can find a way to score a 69 degree high tomorrow.

 

Doubt that is in the cards.

[Jesse]

The new 12z EPS still showing above average temperatures from day 7 to day 10. I don't see a major below average weather period coming up. We have just been so HOT lately that any cool down will feel more significant than it really is. 

 

All models have trended solidly cool beyond day 5. Tomorrow and Tuesday will likely be below average too (Tuesday thanks to cool lows, mostly).

 

Those maps look pretty suspect considering how troughy the 12Z Euro was days 7-10.

[Phil]

The new 12z EPS still showing above average temperatures from day 7 to day 10. I don't see a major below average weather period coming up. We have just been so HOT lately that any cool down will feel more significant than it really is.

 

http://i.imgur.com/YDVNZuB.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/K2MkNvy.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/KYH0dNQ.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/zoKNtgT.png

A cool period will initiate during the week of 8/28 to 9/4.

 

Actually, about 30/51 members are cooler than average in the day 6-10 day range, and 35/51 members are cooler than average in the day 11-15 range.

[Jesse]

Just checked the numbers for PDX for the first time since the 10th.

 

Hard to believe they are solidly in top 5 warm territory for August now. It's been a warm week and a half.

 

If they somehow stay above 72.1 between now and the 31st, three of the top five warm Augusts will have been in the last three consecutive years.

[FroYoBro]

Nah, when someone is clearly aiming to get my goad with a majority of their posts, hiding them helps me keep my nose clean.

Do you have me on ignore?

[Jesse]

Do you have me on ignore?

I saw this, so no.

[Jesse]

PDX is down to 68 with NW winds gusting to 23mph. Quite the change from yesterday afternoon!

[FroYoBro]

I saw this, so no.

Wow. Really feeling the love. #diversity 

[MossMan]

Wow. Really feeling the love. #diversity

I seem to be the special one, I feel honored!

[Deweydog]

Just checked the numbers for PDX for the first time since the 10th.

 

Hard to believe they are solidly in top 5 warm territory for August now. It's been a warm week and a half.

 

If they somehow stay above 72.1 between now and the 31st, three of the top five warm Augusts will have been in the last three consecutive years.

Olympia's not even in the running for top 500.

[Phil]

The CFSv2 is going to bust in September.

[Jesse]

Is Blizzard trying some sort of Jedi mind trick, where if he just keeps talking about the models like they are still warm they will eventually bend to his will?

[Phil]

Is Blizzard trying some sort of Jedi mind trick, where if he just keeps talking about the models like they are still warm they will eventually bend to his will?

I think he's just obsessed with heat.

[Front Ranger]

All models have trended solidly cool beyond day 5. Tomorrow and Tuesday will likely be below average too (Tuesday thanks to cool lows, mostly).

 

Those maps look pretty suspect considering how troughy the 12Z Euro was days 7-10.

 

Today was even below normal many places, at least north of Portland.

 

Average for today is 81/58 at PDX. PDX saw 81/58. And...+1 daily departure.

[Phil]

Today was even below normal many places, at least north of Portland.

 

Average for today is 81/58 at PDX. PDX saw 81/58. And...+1 daily departure.

They miscalculate those departures so frequently I stopped keeping track. Ridiculous.

[Jesse]

I think he's just obsessed with heat.

 

Or diversity, as Matt calls it.

[Front Ranger]

They miscalculate those departures so frequently I stopped keeping track. Ridiculous.

 

That was an especially fun one, though.

[Deweydog]

Or diversity, as Matt calls it.

Sometimes diversity and accuracy collide. It's a beautiful thing.

[Jesse]

Sometimes diversity and accuracy collide. It's a beautiful thing.

 

Heat and accuracy are synonymous in fallball land.

[Phil]

That was an especially fun one, though.

Yeah, would be the second time this summer they've listed a perfectly "normal" day as +1.

 

Seriously, who the hell is calculating this s**t?

[Phil]

Blizzard obsessed with heat LOL. I have already stated I'm hoping for cooler weather. I'm tired of the heat but this isn't the pattern to do it. We need more of a westerly flow.

Northwesterly flow will work fine, actually. There's nothing wrong with the pattern unless you're hugging the CFSv2.

[Deweydog]

Heat and accuracy are synonymous in fallball land.

Only when they are, not when they're not.

[Jesse]

Northwesterly flow will work fine, actually. There's nothing wrong with the pattern unless you're hugging the CFSv2.

 

Think you just nailed it.

 

Although in his defense, Bastardi told him to.

[Phil]

Think you just nailed it.

 

Although in his defense, Bustardi told him to.

FYP.

 

Cheesy, but accurate.

[Jesse]

00Z GFS illustrates one of the many ways next week's pattern could go to crap.

[snow_wizard]

The new 12z EPS still showing above average temperatures from day 7 to day 10. I don't see a major below average weather period coming up. We have just been so HOT lately that any cool down will feel more significant than it really is. 

 

 

 

You must wear heat colored glasses.

[snow_wizard]

00Z GFS illustrates one of the many ways next week's pattern could go to crap.

 

I'm more focused on the beauty before that.

[snow_wizard]

There is no NW flow coming anytime soon.

 

What????  I suppose it might be more straight north.  Are you looking at the same models as everyone else?

[Phil]

00Z GFS illustrates one of the many ways next week's pattern could go to crap.

It's actually only warm for 2 days @ 850mb despite the SW flow.

 

Troughing resumes thereafter quite swiftly.

[Phil]

There is no NW flow coming anytime soon.

Yes, there is W/NW flow coming, and you'll be sitting right in the middle of it.

 

Enjoy the cool weather! I'll be watching in envy (seriously).

[snow_wizard]

This block is absolutely gorgeous.  In the winter that placement pushes Arctic air in to the NW while moisture from the Pacific would undercut.  Pretty rare to see something like this in the summer.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Yes, there is W/NW flow coming, and you'll be sitting right in the middle of it.

 

Enjoy the cool weather! I'll be watching in envy (seriously).

 

I literally think some people on the forum are blind.

[Phil]

This block is absolutely gorgeous. In the winter that placement pushes Arctic air in to the NW while moisture from the Pacific would undercut. Pretty rare to see something like this in the summer.

But, there's no W/NW flow coming!! The models are all wrong because...?

 

Bastardi/Mark Nelsen et al 2016?

[Jesse]

In that case, I better see some below average temperatures. Highs in the 70s.

 

We will be seeing highs in the 70s tomorrow. The models are advertising NW flow. Although I suppose they could be wrong. What is the CFS saying for tomorrow?

[Deweydog]

I literally think some people on the forum are blind.

Ironic.

[snow_wizard]

Overall I really like the 0z GFS.  Tons of GOA blocking.  A repeating theme for weeks now.

[Phil]

This run effing sucks..most of the country in the upper 90s/100s right into early/mid September. Vibes of 2015.