August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

I think Sandpoint is pretty high on most of our lists, as is Coeur d'Alene.

 

 

I love Couer D'Alene.   I also never realized how beautiful it is going south on 95 from the city.   I could definitely live there.  

[TT-SEA]

Pretty nice weekend now on the WRF... plenty of sun and in the low to mid 70s.      

 

Big improvement.  

[Jesse]

00z GFS ensembles trended much warmer for the weekend and beyond.

[BLI snowman]

I love Couer D'Alene.   I also never realized how beautiful it is going south on 95 from the city.   I could definitely live there.  

 

Northern Idaho is great. Beautiful lakes and mountains and enough population and activities to not feel too remote. Also much greener and more lush than many parts of the Mountain West. A nice transition zone between that region and the PNW. 

[snow_wizard]

594 heights into the Aleutians. That's be something.

 

The ECMWF is the same.

[snow_wizard]

00z GFS ensembles trended much warmer for the weekend and beyond.

 

Not from what I'm seeing.

[Jesse]

Not from what I'm seeing.

The 00z Euro and 00z Euro ensembles look cooler than the GFS for the weekend and beyond, which is generally a good sign.

[Phil]

3,000 feet in the Appalachians is a cultural wasteland.

What defines "culture" in your mind?

 

At least from my perspective, that area is a lot more cultured than many other areas I've visited.

[Phil]

Nine days from meteorological autumn, here's what J/J/A looks like on the NOAA data:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/EAF0C24D-B011-456E-B544-8D4B1D571306_zpslzeib72t.jpg

[ShawniganLake]

Nine days from meteorological autumn, here's what J/J/A looks like on the NOAA data:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/EAF0C24D-B011-456E-B544-8D4B1D571306_zpslzeib72t.jpg

That blue (-1 to -2F) over southern Vancouver Island is laughable.

[TT-SEA]

That blue (-1 to -2F) over southern Vancouver Island is laughable.

 

 

Here is a much better representation of the last 90 days...

[Jesse]

Widespread 40s in the Columbia Basin this morning, as well as on the west side.

 

Always a sure sign of approaching autumn.

[Jesse]

Might be time to dust off the Tim and Phil thread. This feels like one that might last a few pages.

[Tyler Mode]

A beautiful morning over Clark County!

 

August 23rd, 2016

 

44 degrees following yesterday's 43.  As of right now, this is the coolest average low I've had for August.  51.5 degrees.

 

[MossMan]

Widespread 40s in the Columbia Basin this morning, as well as on the west side.

 

Always a sure sign of approaching autumn.

Hit 49 at my house around 7am, was out with the dogs and even though we are entering late August the sun is still quite powerful...was comfortable in shorts and the temp quickly rose. Currently 57 at a little after 8am.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

A beautiful morning over Clark County!

 

August 23rd, 2016

 

44 degrees following yesterday's 43.  As of right now, this is the coolest average low I've had for August.  51.5 degrees.

 

 

Gorgeous shot! There have been some fairly chilly lows this August. 43 yesterday and 41 this morning at my place. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Getting a new weather station online in the next couple of weeks. Now we just need some weather to record on it!

[Front Ranger]

Clearly was troughy at the 500mb level for a good part of the time and still above normal at every station for every month.

 

We live at the surface.

 

Will you tell us it was a snowy winter if the snow does not quite reach the ground?

 

Uh, no.

[Front Ranger]

Low of at least 46 at the airport of the gods this AM.

[Front Ranger]

At every station on the climate data section of the SEA NWS site for every month.  

 

18 out of 18  (6 stations * 3 months),

 

I'd say Quillayute is less relevant to this board than PDX.

[Jesse]

D**n that blue map is infuriating! Laughable! Completely destroys my memories of this toasty summer.

 

I think a strongly worded letter is in order.

[Deweydog]

It hasn't snowed here in months.

[Jesse]

Upper levels were cooler than average over our region this summer, overall. 

 

If upper level temps were slightly warmer than average in the winter, many places still might end up near to below normal, thanks to inversions. In that case it would be fair to say that a map painting upper level departures as red is as correct as the departures of the stations on the surface. Both can be right.

 

Although, of course, the cries of "fake cold!" would be echoing through the forum. Perhaps a good deal of this summer's warmth was "fake warmth", then, by that measure?

[Jesse]

Too bad we lowlanders couldn't all have been basking in low resolution warmth January of 2009.

[Jesse]

Models seem to be really struggling with the weekend and next week.

 

Overcooked block.

[Jesse]

To clarify, there have been 3-4 legitimately warm upper level patterns this summer (early June, late July, mid August and now late August).

 

Default troughing has been a theme surrounding those periods. Troughing tends to make the upper levels cooler than normal.

[Front Ranger]

Upper levels were cooler than average over our region this summer, overall.

 

If upper level temps were slightly warmer than average in the winter, many places still might end up below normal thanks to inversions. In that case it would be fair to say that a map painting upper level departures as red is as correct as the departures of the stations on the surface. Both can be right.

 

Although, of course, the cries of "fake cold!" would be echoing through the forum. Perhaps a good deal of this summer's warmth was "fake warmth", then, by that measure?

Even though upper levels were a little cooler than average, I wouldn't say it's been a troughy summer overall (not saying you were). Compared to the last couple, for sure, but most of the troughing has been very weak... September could change that, though!

 

The few significant troughs/ULLs did manage to produce widespread below normal weather (mid June, early July, early August).

[TT-SEA]

To clarify, there have been 3-4 legitimately warm upper level patterns this summer (early June, late July, mid August and now late August).

 

Default troughing has been a theme surrounding those periods. Troughing tends to make the upper levels cooler than normal.

All true.

[ShawniganLake]

Models seem to be really struggling with the weekend and next week.

 

Overcooked block.

Yea, a pretty big shift in the 12z GFS for next week.  Either way, it feels like we are probably done with the really hot stuff for the season, after Friday. 

[Deweydog]

Climate pundits will be trying to figure this summer out for decades, centuries to come. A true mystery for the ages.

[Front Ranger]

To clarify, there have been 3-4 legitimately warm upper level patterns this summer (early June, late July, mid August and now late August).

 

Default troughing has been a theme surrounding those periods. Troughing tends to make the upper levels cooler than normal.

Yeah, the issue is that the really warm patterns were really just as frequent as the truly cool patterns,and they produced larger anomalies.

 

What's occurred in August has obviously gone a long way towards tilting the balance towards warm, and undermining summer outlooks.

 

A very cool September could still tilt the JAS period to normal or even slightly below, of course.

[Jesse]

Yea, a pretty big shift in the 12z GFS for next week.  Either way, it feels like we are probably done with the really hot stuff for the season, after Friday. 

 

Possibly. I will never rule out a September spike.

[Jesse]

Yeah, the issue is that the warm patterns were really just as frequent as the truly cool patterns,and they produced larger anomalies.

 

What's occurred in August has obviously gone a long way towards tilting the balance towards warm, and undermining summer outlooks.

 

A very cool September could still tilt the JAS period to normal or even slightly below, of course.

 

Believe it when I see it.

[Front Ranger]

Ahhh... August will be warmer than July at every station. Not cooling as the summer progressed. Warm... less warm... and then warmer again at most stations.

You're both jumping the gun. The JAS period was always the point of discussion, since everyone agreed June would be warm.

[Deweydog]

I see no less than a few onshore pushes on the 12z.

[Jesse]

I see no less than a few onshore pushes on the 12z.

 

MOS guidance shows a bunch of 80/60 type days Saturday through early next week.

[Deweydog]

MOS guidance shows a bunch of 80/60 type days Saturday through early next week.

Sounds refreshing after a nice three day heatwave.

[FroYoBro]

I think we need some real leadership around here. I started an important poll where you can take your vote for the alpha dog.

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1382-alpha-dog-poll/

[Jesse]

Sounds refreshing after a nice three day heatwave.

 

75/55 would be pure hell, though.

 

Dodging bullets!

[Deweydog]

75/55 would be pure hell, though.

 

Dodging bullets!

Just like the fact you don't have a patch on your shoulder to have honor, you don't have to have a negative daily departure to be refreshing.