August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

OK.

 

Glad I live, work, and play in the Seattle area.   

 

Nobody is taking the UHI away any time soon.  

 

FWIW, Seattle WFO is running quite a bit cooler than SEA this month. That was your favorite station to compare to previously.

[snow_wizard]

Honest question. Do sensors only trend warm when they are failing. I have never once heard someone question a sensor for cold readings.

 

I have seen 3 sensors over the past years that were obviously having problems and they were all high.  I notified NOAA about them and a few days later the readings mysteriously were accurate again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My location had a 58/23 in September 1972. That was a GREAT weather year. Silver Falls period or record dates back to 1938, the all-time high and low were in 1972. 

[snow_wizard]

The 67 at SEA at 3pm is more than a little surprising.  It's 72 here and we are usually a bit lower than them.  Their low was lower today also which is really rare.  We might sneak in a cheap minus today.  I could count the number of those this summer on one hand.

[wx_statman]

Again, not a one month deal. SEA has consistently run +1 to +2 warmer than OLM during recent warm seasons, and it can't be explained away by microclimates.

 

You can feel free to point out SEA's numbers and I'll feel free to point out a non-UHI affected station.

 

The problem with consistently pointing out OLM is that it doesn't actually prove or disprove anything. You have a personal, subjective bias in favor of the OLM station - but you present their numbers as borderline-scientific proof of Seattle's runaway UHI effect. While SEA obviously has UHI, constantly comparing their numbers to a completely different station in a different part of the Puget Sound (with different microclimate tendencies) only muddies the waters. 

 

For example, lets take a look at July 2013, a relatively warm month in the PNW but not in record breaking fashion. I'm going to use only post-1950 numbers to account for a comparison with BLI, since their records only go back to 1949. Here's how July 2013 stacked up in the post-1950 rankings for each station profiled:

 

-7th warmest at SEA

-7th warmest at Anacortes COOP

-8th warmest at BLI

-11th warmest at PAE

-12th warmest at Longview COOP

-24th warmest at OLM

 

It would be tempting to look at SEA and their 7th warmest July, and then look at OLM and immediately conclude that there's a massive UHI effect at SEA. But if you look at a more regional perspective, you'll quickly see that its in fact SEA's numbers that are more in line with the region and not OLM's. Were there more marine pushes through the Chehalis gap that July to cool off OLM? I don't know. But its pretty obvious that OLM is the outlier here. The stations that have more in common with SEA - those that are on or near the immediate Puget Sound - were all much closer in their anomalies to SEA than OLM. 

 

Just some food for thought. 

[snow_wizard]

My location had a 58/23 in September 1972. That was a GREAT weather year. Silver Falls period or record dates back to 1938, the all-time high and low were in 1972. 

 

23 is incredible for September.  Amazing year for weather in the NW.

 

1. Fabulous lowland snowstorm in January in the Puget Sound Lowlands.

2. The notable widespread lowland snowfall in April.

3. The F3 tornado that hit Vancouver and caused serious damage.

4. Coldest September of the 20th century.

5. Incredible December cold wave.

 

It also needs to mentioned this all came after the impressive October snowfall in 1971.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW, Seattle WFO is running quite a bit cooler than SEA this month. That was your favorite station to compare to previously.

 

 

It is my favorite station... gorgeous location.   I love it.   

 

Maybe its cooler there in really hot patterns due to the lake.   I bet that station has a reverse UHI.    SEA is the good station.  

 

By the way... it was perfectly equal with SEA in June and July.    Now 0.7 different this month.   Not really shocking.

[Phil]

The problem with consistently pointing out OLM is that it doesn't actually prove or disprove anything. You have a personal, subjective bias in favor of the OLM station - but you present their numbers as borderline-scientific proof of Seattle's runaway UHI effect. While SEA obviously has UHI, constantly comparing their numbers to a completely different station in a different part of the Puget Sound (with different microclimate tendencies) only muddies the waters.

 

For example, lets take a look at July 2013, a relatively warm month in the PNW but not in record breaking fashion. I'm going to use only post-1950 numbers to account for a comparison with BLI, since their records only go back to 1949. Here's how July 2013 stacked up in the post-1950 rankings for each station profiled:

 

-7th warmest at SEA

-7th warmest at Anacortes COOP

-8th warmest at BLI

-11th warmest at PAE

-12th warmest at Longview COOP

-24th warmest at OLM

 

It would be tempting to look at SEA and their 7th warmest July, and then look at OLM and immediately conclude that there's a massive UHI effect at SEA. But if you look at a more regional perspective, you'll quickly see that its in fact SEA's numbers that are more in line with the region and not OLM's. Were there more marine pushes through the Chehalis gap that July to cool off OLM? I don't know. But its pretty obvious that OLM is the outlier here. The stations that have more in common with SEA - those that are on or near the immediate Puget Sound - were all much closer in their anomalies to SEA than OLM.

 

Just some food for thought.

How many of those additional stations (surrounding Puget Sound) have experienced lackluster surrounding urbanization, as is the case with OLM? My guess is, not very many.

[Phil]

As I'm sure everyone knows, each station's anomalies are relative to their own individual climatologies.

 

So, a better question would be, why is OLM running cooler relative to its own climatological background versus many surrounding stations over the last few decades? I suspect UHI is a substantial factor, as urbanization continues.

 

The OLM "cool bias" transcends multiple sensor replacements, so that's obviously not the reason.

[Front Ranger]

The problem with consistently pointing out OLM is that it doesn't actually prove or disprove anything. You have a personal, subjective bias in favor of the OLM station - but you present their numbers as borderline-scientific proof of Seattle's runaway UHI effect. While SEA obviously has UHI, constantly comparing their numbers to a completely different station in a different part of the Puget Sound (with different microclimate tendencies) only muddies the waters. 

 

For example, lets take a look at July 2013, a relatively warm month in the PNW but not in record breaking fashion. I'm going to use only post-1950 numbers to account for a comparison with BLI, since their records only go back to 1949. Here's how July 2013 stacked up in the post-1950 rankings for each station profiled:

 

-7th warmest at SEA

-7th warmest at Anacortes COOP

-8th warmest at BLI

-11th warmest at PAE

-12th warmest at Longview COOP

-24th warmest at OLM

 

It would be tempting to look at SEA and their 7th warmest July, and then look at OLM and immediately conclude that there's a massive UHI effect at SEA. But if you look at a more regional perspective, you'll quickly see that its in fact SEA's numbers that are more in line with the region and not OLM's. Were there more marine pushes through the Chehalis gap that July to cool off OLM? I don't know. But its pretty obvious that OLM is the outlier here. The stations that have more in common with SEA - those that are on or near the immediate Puget Sound - were all much closer in their anomalies to SEA than OLM. 

 

Just some food for thought. 

 

So let's start with your premise - that the reason I point to OLM is because of subjective bias. That right there is a subjective statement on your part. I have outlined many times the reasons I prefer to look at OLM when comparing current anomalies/events to those of the past. I can go over those again, but they are not subjective.

 

I don't point to OLM as proof that SEA has UHI. The proof is pretty obvious if one looks at the numbers and the facts of where they are located and changes to the sensor surroundings in recent decades.

 

Obviously, every station has its own microclimate. That doesn't mean two stations in different microclimates have no relationship to each other from an anomaly perspective. I use OLM as a comparison point often because if you look back at local climate history and compare the two stations to decades past, you can see a trend of SEA deviating more and more from where they used to be in relation to OLM, and the anomaly trends (not just for one month, as you singled out with July 2013) are clear.

[wx_statman]

Sometimes you have to call a spade a spade. I've seen and investigated enough sensor problems in my young life to recognize one when I see it.

 

For example, Astoria didn't record one single cooler than average day in July, despite rather consistent troughs and cooler than average anomalies both @ 950-975mb and cool surface anomalies registered @ surrounding locations. This looks even worse than the DCA debacle.

 

July:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/75CDC450-4B15-4D53-A11A-2EE3C29D79A0_zpslps32nox.png

 

Or maybe it was the pattern?

 

OTH had one day below normal in July. Is their sensor broken too?

[wx_statman]

Yeah, the political and climate agendas are nauseating. Sort of irrelevant to this discussion, however

 

Its pretty relevant, because its out there. 

[wx_statman]

Off by 14 degrees.  Sure....

 

Do you think Allagash broke the state record low by 7 degrees in a pattern that wasn't conducive to such an occurrence? 

[Front Ranger]

As I'm sure everyone knows, each station's anomalies are relative to their own individual climatologies.

 

So, a better question would be, why is OLM running cooler relative to its own climatological background versus many surrounding stations over the last few decades? I suspect UHI is a substantial factor, as urbanization continues.

 

The OLM "cool bias" transcends multiple sensor replacements, so that's obviously not the reason.

 

Well, it's not just OLM. There are plenty of other rural stations (or stations that have remained in urban settings from day one) that reflect a similar trend. EUG, Monroe, Clearbrook, Landsburg, Battle Ground, downtown Portland, Silver Creek Falls, Cottage Grove are some. Unfortunately, missing data is an issue for some of these stations.

 

It's warmed everywhere. But it's warmed more in places that have had more development nearby. Again...not rocket science here.

[wx_statman]

How many of those additional stations (surrounding Puget Sound) have experienced lackluster surrounding urbanization, as is the case with OLM? My guess is, not very many.

 

Anacortes is a small town. Bellingham isn't exactly a major city either. 

[Front Ranger]

Its pretty relevant, because its out there. 

 

I personally completely disagree with Anthony Watt's agenda. Be careful not to lump all this stuff together...I think that was Phil's point.

[MossMan]

Today would be a perfect day to be over in Coulee City... 83 and sunny with a light breeze.

Wish I was still over there. 66 with dribbles here at home. Though I bought an over the air digital antenna and I get Q13 Fox so I have been in watching football in between washing my truck, working with my new dog, ect. So hasn't been all bad. Missing the 80's/90's and sun however.

[wx_statman]

As I'm sure everyone knows, each station's anomalies are relative to their own individual climatologies.

 

So, a better question would be, why is OLM running cooler relative to its own climatological background versus many surrounding stations over the last few decades? I suspect UHI is a substantial factor, as urbanization continues.

 

The OLM "cool bias" transcends multiple sensor replacements, so that's obviously not the reason.

 

I think you're broadbrushing this just like Front Ranger. Like I said in my previous post, Anacortes is a small town of 16,000. None of the places I mentioned outside of Seattle are tremendously urbanized. 

[Deweydog]

One thing that does make me wonder about the Astoria data is the fact it was freakishly warmer than Hoquiam the other day. Normally the cooling from a marine push effects places further south first. That and the fact Hoquiam is a bit inland from the actual ocean. I will say the pattern on that day was a bit unorthodox though.

You think the thermometer altered the marine push?

[wx_statman]

Well, it's not just OLM. There are plenty of other rural stations (or stations that have remained in urban settings from day one) that reflect a similar trend. EUG, Monroe, Clearbrook, Landsburg, Battle Ground, downtown Portland, Silver Creek Falls, Cottage Grove. Unfortunately, missing data is an issue for some of these stations.

 

It's warmed everywhere. But it's warmed more in places that have had more development nearby. Again...not rocket science here.

 

And nobody is disputing that. Its weird that you feel the need to say that. 

 

Personally, my concern with you is your over-reliance on OLM as some sort of anti-SEA buffer. That's exactly what I laid out in my post about July 2013. 

[Front Ranger]

I think you're broadbrushing this just like Front Ranger. Like I said in my previous post, Anacortes is a small town of 16,000. None of the places I mentioned outside of Seattle are tremendously urbanized. 

 

How am I broadbrushing? Please try to stick to the facts, hyperbole isn't helpful for these types of discussions.

[wx_statman]

So let's start with your premise - that the reason I point to OLM is because of subjective bias. That right there is a subjective statement on your part. I have outlined many times the reasons I prefer to look at OLM when comparing current anomalies/events to those of the past. I can go over those again, but they are not subjective.

 

I don't point to OLM as proof that SEA has UHI. The proof is pretty obvious if one looks at the numbers and the facts of where they are located and changes to the sensor surroundings in recent decades.

 

Obviously, every station has its own microclimate. That doesn't mean two stations in different microclimates have no relationship to each other from an anomaly perspective. I use OLM as a comparison point often because if you look back at local climate history and compare the two stations to decades past, you can see a trend of SEA deviating more and more from where they used to be in relation to OLM, and the anomaly trends (not just for one month, as you singled out with July 2013) are clear.

 

Exactly. SEA has UHI.

 

I just said in 4 words what took you three paragraphs to type. 

[Front Ranger]

Personally, my concern with you is your over-reliance on OLM as some sort of anti-SEA buffer. That's exactly what I laid out in my post about July 2013. 

 

Sounds like a rather subjective concern. Again - I've laid out why I believe OLM is a better station to use as a comparison to past events/current anomalies.

 

And one month is just one month. I've looked at this a lot deeper than that.

[wx_statman]

I personally completely disagree with Anthony Watt's agenda. Be careful not to lump all this stuff together...I think that was Phil's point.

 

Then you've changed. I remember you being pretty fond of the wattsupwiththat.com site back in the day. 

[Front Ranger]

Exactly. SEA has UHI.

 

I just said in 4 words what took you three paragraphs to type. 

 

So it seems you're looking to start a fight over nothing? 

 

I addressed your other points in those 4 paragraphs as well.

[wx_statman]

How am I broadbrushing? Please try to stick to the facts, hyperbole isn't helpful for these types of discussions.

 

You're broadbrushing the effect of UHI at SEA by constantly referring to OLM.

 

That's my opinion.

[Front Ranger]

Then you've changed. I remember you being pretty fond of the wattsupwiththat.com site back in the day. 

 

I stopped visiting that site at least 6 years ago.

 

Coming into a conversation swinging, with outdated preconceived notions, is not necessarily wise.

[Deweydog]

Then you've changed. I remember you being pretty fond of the wattsupwiththat.com site back in the day.

He has. He's wised up quite a bit since his name change.

[wx_statman]

Sounds like a rather subjective concern. Again - I've laid out why I believe OLM is a better station to use as a comparison to past events/current anomalies.

 

And one month is just one month. I've looked at this a lot deeper than that.

 

Absolutely. Its my opinion based on what I see.

 

Do you see how an over-reliance on OLM can lead one astray in a month like July 2013? I'm just curious. 

[wx_statman]

So it seems you're looking to start a fight over nothing? 

 

I addressed your other points in those 4 paragraphs as well.

 

We might have to agree to disagree. 

[wx_statman]

I stopped visiting that site at least 6 years ago.

 

Coming into a conversation swinging, with outdated preconceived notions, is not necessarily wise.

 

Swinging? I addressed my concerns with your over-reliance on OLM with factual data from July 2013. 

 

And preconceived notions are only as outdated as you make them. You never personally informed me that you stopped visiting that website. 

[Phil]

Or maybe it was the pattern?

 

OTH had one day below normal in July. Is their sensor broken too?

No, it probably wasn't the pattern. The nature of the troughing, streamflow, and pressure gradient fluctuated frequently through July.

 

Heck, PDX ran a negative departure for the month, and Astoria can't manage a single day with a minus departure?

[Phil]

I personally completely disagree with Anthony Watt's agenda. Be careful not to lump all this stuff together...I think that was Phil's point.

Yeah, no need to bring that irrelevant debate in here. No one here is a proponent of Anthony Watts et al.

[snow_wizard]

You think the thermometer altered the marine push?

 

No.

 

I was just saying the thermometer being high at Astoria could explain how whacky the readings were in comparison to Hoquiam.  I'm only going by how things usually play out on this.

[wx_statman]

No, it probably wasn't the pattern. The nature of the troughing, streamflow, and pressure gradient fluctuated frequently through July.

 

Heck, PDX ran a negative departure for the month, and Astoria can't manage a single day with a minus departure?

 

OK, so I'm just trying to understand. You're saying that the sensor @ AST must be broken because there were no negative daily departures in July. But the sensor @ OTH is functioning properly because it registered one day with a negative daily departure?

 

Help me out here. Because I don't see how that makes sense. 

[snow_wizard]

I stopped visiting that site at least 6 years ago.

 

Coming into a conversation swinging, with outdated preconceived notions, is not necessarily wise.

 

I visit it to monitor the sea ice.  Very good for that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That's a good question. I don't think I've ever heard people question readings that might appear slightly cool. The only example that I know of is the -55F in Allagash, ME in January 1999. Initially made headlines as a new state record low, only to have the NWS revise the reading to something like -41F a few days later. Calibration issues. But again, that was only reviewed because it was a possible state record. 

 

Some have questioned the -42 at Horse Ridge in SE Oregon in December 2013. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It would be remiss to mention that Eugene tied a record low this month

[Phil]

OK, so I'm just trying to understand. You're saying that the sensor @ AST must be broken because there were no negative daily departures in July. But the sensor @ OTH is functioning properly because it registered one day with a negative daily departure?

 

Help me out here. Because I don't see how that makes sense.

Why is it that you struggle to grasp such simple concepts sometimes? You're obviously a smart guy, so I don't know if you're just shooting for a few gotchas, or what.

[wx_statman]

Some have questioned the -42 at Horse Ridge in SE Oregon in December 2013. 

 

RAWS readings are easily questioned, since they're not quality controlled. But that reading doesn't seem out of line for that cold wave. The Poplars COOP had an official -37F.