10/23 - 10/30 Series of Storms/Cutters

[Andie]

This looks SO good. Raining hard right now. Thunder and lightning is awesome.  
64 and a low tonight in upper 40’s.  
Talk about welcomed. Rivers and lakes will be grateful.  
 

Edit:  Terrell, east of Dallas, spotted a tornado last night. The storm picked up intensity as it swept across No Tx. We received a 2nd 1” rain.  Came down in buckets   

 

[Clinton]

1.75 inches as of now, looking at the radar it would appear that the main storm may lift up west of where the models have been taking it.  I think there is a good chance of some additional rainfall for KC and mby late tonight and tomorrow morning.   Snow is being reported in Amarillo TX btw.

[Hawkeye]

It appears I will finish with about 1.38" late today and a 2-day total of about 1.50".  This is easily my biggest rain event since June.

[Clinton]

Light rain has moved back in this morning and looks to linger throughout the day.  I kind pick up another 1/4 to 1/2 inch which would push my storm total over 2 inches.

 

[Clinton]

Glad KC peeps did well they needed it.

 

NWS Kansas City

 

@NWSKansasCity

KC received 1.38" of rain today...that was the 4th highest single day total for 2022 and most since 6/21 (1.42"). The 1.38" we had today was more than we've had in the last 43 days combined

[Tom]

Up to 30" of snow fell in MT as the West got hit with their 1st Sig Snow of the Season...

Park City, UT...

 

 

Big Sky Resort in MT...

 

 

 

[Tom]

@OKwx2k4 @Black Hole are right in the comma head of this storm....

 

Nice looking radar loop for our S Peeps...

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=realtime&frames=50&interval=5&year=2022&month=10&day=25&hour=3&minute=25

[Iceresistance]

I got 2 inches of rain from this!  

[Clinton]

I got another .35 today bringing my storm total to exactly 2 inches. 

[Clinton]

Here are some estimated rainfall totals for my area from this storm and Lezaks thoughts as it pertains to the LRC.

"this main storm is tracking just southeast of KC. When this part of the pattern returns during the winter, this will likely be a large area of snow"

[Clinton]

Another interesting storm for the Southern Plains coming up.   I like how this could play out over the winter also.  @Andie you should get some good rainfall from this.

[Tom]

Nature is about to "Light it Up"...both 0z GEFS/EPS agree that it's going to get active for the heartland of the Nation.  Those that have been on the sidelines, may now be Front & Center come 1st week of NOV.

 

0z EPS...

 

Nice to see the C/S Plains drought stricken region in the AN precip anomalies...

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Nature is about to "Light it Up"...both 0z GEFS/EPS agree that it's going to get active for the heartland of the Nation.  Those that have been on the sidelines, may now be Front & Center come 1st week of NOV.

 

0z EPS...

 

Nice to see the C/S Plains drought stricken region in the AN precip anomalies...

New LRC is going to wipe out the drought in Oklahoma and North Texas. 

[jaster220]

Cute..

 

[Tom]

Here comes the last in a series of storms during this "parade"...I recall having conversations with some locals in Park City, UT while I was visiting back in early Aug and they mentioned the enhanced snowfall totals from The Great Salt Lake.  Well, the first LES of the season is producing some light snow showers off the lake!

 

 

 

[Tom]

This last system will be a fun one to track in future cycles....#TXPanHandleHook #LowerLakesCutter @OKwx2k4 @Andie @Iceresistance @Black Hole

 

[Andie]

Oh yeah. Bring it! 
Looks like a typical Tx 2 Step Hook ‘em Soaker.  
Lots of wind, water, and warnings.  
Usually makes for lively entertainment.  

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

This last system will be a fun one to track in future cycles....#TXPanHandleHook #LowerLakesCutter @OKwx2k4 @Andie @Iceresistance @Black Hole

 

And it will likely be stronger when we get to Winter.  Oklahoma snow storm?

[Clinton]

11 hours ago, Andie said:

Oh yeah. Bring it! 
Looks like a typical Tx 2 Step Hook ‘em Soaker.  
Lots of wind, water, and warnings.  
Usually makes for lively entertainment.  

This evenings Euro is a real soaker for Dallas.  This storm is fascinating with how is rolls down the Rockies  to the Gulf and then lifts almost due north, it even throughs some light totals in my area.

[Tom]

Nice to see Park City, UT to top the list of SN over the central Rockies...

 

@Andiethis looks pretty...

[Andie]

Yeah!  We’ve got loads of rolling thunder and heavy rain this morning.  
Slowly replenishing our lakes and fields greening up in time for fall.  

With luck we’ll keep regular rain to help farmers/ranchers with their fields.   This should help food prices and local farmers markets.  I’m hoping for a wet winter, -maybe without the ice! 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Future cycles of most of these storms are pretty much lit for NE Ok back throughout the red river and on through Andie's backyard.

Iceresistance should have a great time later on, too. Gonna be a fun year.

[Iceresistance]

2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Future cycles of most of these storms are pretty much lit for NE Ok back throughout the red river and on through Andie's backyard.

Iceresistance should have a great time later on, too. Gonna be a fun year.

I saw that, 11/3 could be a severe weather event per GFS consistency.

[Andie]

Since midnight I’ve received about 1.4” of rain. Lots of thunder. Really enjoyed the whole atmosphere after this drought.

More likely to come today. The fun’s just starting.  I just hope we all avoid hail and tornadoes.   

[OKwx2k4]

3 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

I saw that, 11/3 could be a severe weather event per GFS consistency.

Winter's grace around here never has come without a little wrath first. Only fitting.

[Clinton]

This mornings GFS develops enough of a comma head to wrap around nearly a 1/2 inch of rain for me on Sunday evening.  Not a huge rainstorm for the Mid-West but a nice little soaker, it even gets some light rain into SE Michigan near @jaster220 and @Niko.

[Niko]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

This mornings GFS develops enough of a comma head to wrap around nearly a 1/2 inch of rain for me on Sunday evening.  Not a huge rainstorm for the Mid-West but a nice little soaker, it even gets some light rain into SE Michigan near @jaster220 and @Niko.

That is some welcome needed rain. Looks like a wet Halloween nite for those trick or treaters.

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Clinton said:

This mornings GFS develops enough of a comma head to wrap around nearly a 1/2 inch of rain for me on Sunday evening.  Not a huge rainstorm for the Mid-West but a nice little soaker, it even gets some light rain into SE Michigan near @jaster220 and @Niko.

We'll take it! Thx for keeping us in mind up here Clinton

[Black Hole]

Just a few hundredths of an inch in the Tulsa area with the most recent storm, but looking good for the next one towards next weekend!

[Tom]

@Clinton @OKwx2k4 @jaster220 @Niko...I can't help but imagine what this "Texarkana Track" will do come Winter when it interacts with the Polar Jet....if there is more high lat blocking around, esp a nice west-based -NAO, lookout!  This is the 2nd storm in 5 days to take an almost identical track.  Pretty fascinating pattern.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

@Clinton @OKwx2k4 @jaster220 @Niko...I can't help but imagine what this "Texarkana Track" will do come Winter when it interacts with the Polar Jet....if there is more high lat blocking around, esp a nice west-based -NAO, lookout!  This is the 2nd storm in 5 days to take an almost identical track.  Pretty fascinating pattern.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have light rain falling this morning, so far .20 has fallen.  Very cool to see the bands rotate in from the east as I'm in the comma head part of the storm.  Good place to be in the Winter!

[jaster220]

@Tom

Looking at the current surface map over my morning cup of java and seeing it thinking OMG if this were winter I'd be staring a huge snowstorm in the face! Your post with the vort maps sure would make that BAMwx snow-cast a really good call. 

We've been enjoying "mild" temp's regime, right? While it has been a gorgeous couple days around here, but with the fog delaying the sun's effects we've been mostly in the 30s/40s/50s aside from a few hours in peak heating when we pop into the low 60s. Went to Lansing for dinner last evening and the car thermo was 65F into the blazing late pm sunshine (trees are mostly brown to bare - so no real color show to be had). A few hrs later was shocked to see a 43F on the way home just west of here in Washtenaw Cnty, and indeed I see Ann Arbor hit 29F near midnight. That's quite the plummet for us, especially pre-pumpkin day. KYIP hit 32F this morning and 31F yesterday in the +FOG conditions. The UHI effect has been stunning these past 2 days with places like Detroit City Airport and Grosse Ilse Airport being 12-15 degs warmer than the places I've cited. Having already had 4-5 freezes to this point here in Canton, this autumn is about as flipped from last year as you can get. I remember the never-ending summer lasted til the 3rd week in October before we slowly stepped down. 

[jaster220]

16 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I have light rain falling this morning, so far .20 has fallen.  Very cool to see the bands rotate in from the east as I'm in the comma head part of the storm.  Good place to be in the Winter!

#THINKSNOW! 

Now residing in an area notoriously plagued by both WTOD and mixing issues, I'm going to be geeked at any prospects of a snow event that can avoid those buzz-killing problems. I'll take a solid 4-6" all-snow event over a larger slushy mixy mess like we had last winter. 

[Clinton]

12 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

#THINKSNOW! 

Now residing in an area notoriously plagued by both WTOD and mixing issues, I'm going to be geeked at any prospects of a snow event that can avoid those buzz-killing problems. I'll take a solid 4-6" all-snow event over a larger slushy mixy mess like we had last winter. 

This is the type of system to get excited about.  I always like coming back to these threads over the Winter to see how the models handled these storms.  Something to keep in mind this 2nd storm really wasn't modeled to give either one of us much moisture, now it looks like we both may receive .50 qpf maybe more for you.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

This is the type of system to get excited about.  I always like coming back to these threads over the Winter to see how the models handled these storms.  Something to keep in mind this 2nd storm really wasn't modeled to give either one of us much moisture, now it looks like we both may receive .50 qpf maybe more for you.

Agreed 100% - a few days ago this was under the radar and given 40% chance of rain in my grids. I'd love this kind of surprise/trend come winter. Been too long since we were talking about surprise over-achievers around SMI. Last Feb's fake Big Dog by my office really burned. I still cannot believe how long they rode those 12-18" maps and forecast, just to have the 1st wave miss NW (too warm for the metro), and the 2nd essentially stay far enough SE to stamp a big red FAIL on top of their maps. And for anybody with an eye to wx history for this far SE corner of The Mitt, they would know that the final outcome had like an 80% likelihood of playing out, especially with the marginal temp regime that plagued last winter. 

[jaster220]

Come on cold air! (lol)

DTX:

The aforementioned upper
level low pressure will open and shift into the region this evening
into tonight as another southern stream shortwave kicks east from
the central Rockies. A large dry layer of air in place will limit
rain showers initially this evening, but as time progresses, rain
showers will become likely and persist through the overnight hours.

Additional showers will then overspread the area on Monday as this
second southern stream shortwave tracks quickly in the vicinity from
the central plains. Rain showers from this second system will
persist into Monday evening before ending overnight. Thereafter, dry
weather is expected for much of the week before another strong wave
within the southern stream encroaches by the Friday/Saturday time
frame.

 

For DTW...Showers and low ceilings likely holding off until after
midnight. High confidence in a period of IFR conditions late
tonight into Monday morning, with a low chance of brief period of
LIFR.

[Niko]

10 hours ago, Tom said:

@Clinton @OKwx2k4 @jaster220 @Niko...I can't help but imagine what this "Texarkana Track" will do come Winter when it interacts with the Polar Jet....if there is more high lat blocking around, esp a nice west-based -NAO, lookout!  This is the 2nd storm in 5 days to take an almost identical track.  Pretty fascinating pattern.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I was thinking the same thing. What a beauty of a track for winter.

[Clinton]

11 hours ago, Niko said:

I was thinking the same thing. What a beauty of a track for winter.

Still getting light rain here from this system.  Nice suprise!

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Still getting light rain here from this system.  Nice suprise!

Isn't that a great gift from nature?  Let that precip soak into the soils bc there will be more where that came from.  Cut-Off Low's always seem to throw surprises.

[jaster220]

10 hours ago, Tom said:

Isn't that a great gift from nature?  Let that precip soak into the soils bc there will be more where that came from.  Cut-Off Low's always seem to throw surprises.

DTW just shy of 1/2" with more hopefully on tap for the overnight. Not on the comma head side like Clinton, but getting any liquid is a huge help for our hurting hydro. 

[Niko]

On 10/31/2022 at 5:50 AM, Clinton said:

Still getting light rain here from this system.  Nice suprise!

Congrats! I luv a weather surprise especially when it has to do w/ snow during winter.