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10/23 - 10/30 Series of Storms/Cutters


Tom

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Models have diverged a bit for my area.  The 3kNAM dropped to 0.5", but several other models are well over an inch, including the HRRR.  Less than one inch would be a disappointment.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1.25” rain, 67* and more storms rolling in around 9pm tonight. 
Wind will pick up with gusts to 35mph. Low 50 tonight. 
It’s been really welcomed. Can’t wait to get bounced out of bed tonight with thunder.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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I got clouds this late pm

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I'm up to 1.08", so I'm happy.  We should get a few more tenths.

I also received 0.11" later yesterday through this morning, so that counts, too.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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30 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Had a bad jumpscare this morning with 4 Tornadoes! Including two just to the south of my School! The one in Mustang is the strongest compared to the rest of them. 

i have a close friend who lives in Mustang, the sirens never went off. 

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This looks SO good. Raining hard right now. Thunder and lightning is awesome.  
64 and a low tonight in upper 40’s.  
Talk about welcomed. Rivers and lakes will be grateful.  
 

Edit:  Terrell, east of Dallas, spotted a tornado last night. The storm picked up intensity as it swept across No Tx. We received a 2nd 1” rain.  Came down in buckets   


 

D66E9764-450F-43E2-A4ED-BC893C5F8013.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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1.75 inches as of now, looking at the radar it would appear that the main storm may lift up west of where the models have been taking it.  I think there is a good chance of some additional rainfall for KC and mby late tonight and tomorrow morning.   Snow is being reported in Amarillo TX btw.

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It appears I will finish with about 1.38" late today and a 2-day total of about 1.50".  This is easily my biggest rain event since June.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Here are some estimated rainfall totals for my area from this storm and Lezaks thoughts as it pertains to the LRC.

image.thumb.png.8ac9346df9f051a14d34e39b4c8694e4.png

"this main storm is tracking just southeast of KC. When this part of the pattern returns during the winter, this will likely be a large area of snow"

image.thumb.png.04edbb8c83fa9b7bf357681d42f35cc4.png

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Nature is about to "Light it Up"...both 0z GEFS/EPS agree that it's going to get active for the heartland of the Nation.  Those that have been on the sidelines, may now be Front & Center come 1st week of NOV.

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

 

0z EPS...

image.gif

 

Nice to see the C/S Plains drought stricken region in the AN precip anomalies...

image.png

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Nature is about to "Light it Up"...both 0z GEFS/EPS agree that it's going to get active for the heartland of the Nation.  Those that have been on the sidelines, may now be Front & Center come 1st week of NOV.

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

 

0z EPS...

image.gif

 

Nice to see the C/S Plains drought stricken region in the AN precip anomalies...

image.png

New LRC is going to wipe out the drought in Oklahoma and North Texas. 

image.thumb.png.2cedc5150ff8c7ce89274d8db24b9c98.png

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Cute..

 

2022-10-26 10am Surf.jpg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Here comes the last in a series of storms during this "parade"...I recall having conversations with some locals in Park City, UT while I was visiting back in early Aug and they mentioned the enhanced snowfall totals from The Great Salt Lake.  Well, the first LES of the season is producing some light snow showers off the lake!

image.gif

 

 

 

image.png

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Oh yeah. Bring it! 
Looks like a typical Tx 2 Step Hook ‘em Soaker.  
Lots of wind, water, and warnings.  
Usually makes for lively entertainment.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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11 hours ago, Andie said:

Oh yeah. Bring it! 
Looks like a typical Tx 2 Step Hook ‘em Soaker.  
Lots of wind, water, and warnings.  
Usually makes for lively entertainment.  

This evenings Euro is a real soaker for Dallas.  This storm is fascinating with how is rolls down the Rockies  to the Gulf and then lifts almost due north, it even throughs some light totals in my area.

1667217600-0NreLcVvKUo.png

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Yeah!  We’ve got loads of rolling thunder and heavy rain this morning.  
Slowly replenishing our lakes and fields greening up in time for fall.  

With luck we’ll keep regular rain to help farmers/ranchers with their fields.   This should help food prices and local farmers markets.  I’m hoping for a wet winter, -maybe without the ice! 

 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Future cycles of most of these storms are pretty much lit for NE Ok back throughout the red river and on through Andie's backyard.

Iceresistance should have a great time later on, too. Gonna be a fun year.

I saw that, 11/3 could be a severe weather event per GFS consistency.

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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Since midnight I’ve received about 1.4” of rain. Lots of thunder. Really enjoyed the whole atmosphere after this drought. 😄

More likely to come today. The fun’s just starting.  I just hope we all avoid hail and tornadoes.   

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

This mornings GFS develops enough of a comma head to wrap around nearly a 1/2 inch of rain for me on Sunday evening.  Not a huge rainstorm for the Mid-West but a nice little soaker, it even gets some light rain into SE Michigan near @jaster220 and @Niko.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

That is some welcome needed rain. Looks like a wet Halloween nite for those trick or treaters.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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6 hours ago, Clinton said:

This mornings GFS develops enough of a comma head to wrap around nearly a 1/2 inch of rain for me on Sunday evening.  Not a huge rainstorm for the Mid-West but a nice little soaker, it even gets some light rain into SE Michigan near @jaster220 and @Niko.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

We'll take it! Thx for keeping us in mind up here Clinton

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just a few hundredths of an inch in the Tulsa area with the most recent storm, but looking good for the next one towards next weekend!

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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@Clinton @OKwx2k4 @jaster220 @Niko...I can't help but imagine what this "Texarkana Track" will do come Winter when it interacts with the Polar Jet....if there is more high lat blocking around, esp a nice west-based -NAO, lookout!  This is the 2nd storm in 5 days to take an almost identical track.  Pretty fascinating pattern.

 

 

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