Tom Posted October 21, 2022 Report Share Posted October 21, 2022 The Long awaited pattern change is about to commence as the 1st trough is tracking into the PAC NW today. This energy will track thru the N Rockies and spin up into our 1st significant Autumn storm for the Upper MW during the Sun/Mon period. Will there be flakes flying for the those up north?? It will be the culprit as to how many of you will enjoy a bonafide Indian Summer weekend as this storm pumps up warmth over the heartland. 0z GEFS... Then we we have to monitor a very complex scenario as a trough that is spinning off the PAC coast heads into the SW region and interacts with the main trough that tracks through the central Rockies. Not only that, but there is a tropical storm off the Mexican coastline that appears to track into N Mexico enhancing this fascinating scenario. Possible TriFecta??? Could there be 1st flakes for someone in the heartland?? 0z GEFS....hmmm??? 0z Euro precip... 0z UKIE... Finally, there is a 3rd storm that the models are showing but the ultimate track is TBD...Bowling Ball?? Possible. The key point here is we are entering a more active pattern and tracking systems through the Sub. I have to say, it's not trending favorably for the central Plains of NE/SD. Let's discuss! 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 21, 2022 Report Share Posted October 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Tom said: The Long awaited pattern change is about to commence as the 1st trough is tracking into the PAC NW today. This energy will track thru the N Rockies and spin up into our 1st significant Autumn storm for the Upper MW during the Sun/Mon period. Will there be flakes flying for the those up north?? It will be the culprit as to how many of you will enjoy a bonafide Indian Summer weekend as this storm pumps up warmth over the heartland. 0z GEFS... Then we we have to monitor a very complex scenario as a trough that is spinning off the PAC coast heads into the SW region and interacts with the main trough that tracks through the central Rockies. Not only that, but there is a tropical storm off the Mexican coastline that appears to track into N Mexico enhancing this fascinating scenario. Possible TriFecta??? Could there be 1st flakes for someone in the heartland?? 0z GEFS....hmmm??? 0z Euro precip... 0z UKIE... Finally, there is a 3rd storm that the models are showing but the ultimate track is TBD...Bowling Ball?? Possible. The key point here is we are entering a more active pattern and tracking systems through the Sub. I have to say, it's not trending favorably for the central Plains of NE/SD. Let's discuss! Why do these maps look familiar? Seen these misses to the Southeast way too many times over the years. NWS Hastings is now back to putting blowing dust in the forecast on Sunday. Moisture sure doesn't look good around here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted October 21, 2022 Report Share Posted October 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Tom said: Tom, I was about to create this very same GIF and post it. It's been a LONG time since I have seen a healthy closed low take this track. It actually reminds me of storms of the late 70s / early 80s. With cold air this would be a near perfect heavy snow track for me. The Canadian (and 06z GFS) has a similar storm and track. Even if it doesn't pan out, it was fun to see and be reminded of storms of yesteryear...lol 4 Quote 22-23 Total Snowfall: 6.1" as of 03/18/23. 37% of normal to date. King of the 1" snowfalls (0.6", 1.5", 1.0", 1.0, 1.1", 0.4", 0.2", 0.3") Last snowfall >6": Feb 4, 2014: 13" (nine years and counting) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 21, 2022 14 minutes ago, mlgamer said: Tom, I was about to create this very same GIF and post it. It's been a LONG time since I have seen a healthy closed low take this track. It actually reminds me of storms of the late 70s / early 80s. With cold air this would be a near perfect heavy snow track for me. The Canadian (and 06z GFS) has a similar storm and track. Even if it doesn't pan out, it was fun to see and be reminded of storms of yesteryear...lol “Great Minds Think Alike”…I have personally witnessed many times on here when these synchronicities happen. It’s real cool to see how the weather bonds us all together as we read and learn from one another. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 21, 2022 Report Share Posted October 21, 2022 Bah. Yesterday models trended very favorably for Iowa. Overnight and this morning, however, models are trending back southeast, especially with the closed southern low. Even the ICON and GDPS (Canadian), which were the most nw and bullish, have shifted significantly southeast and now miss Iowa. Models now show eastern Iowa only getting some light rain from the initial surge up the front. 2 1 Quote season snowfall: 29.3" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 21, 2022 Report Share Posted October 21, 2022 The operational models are bouncing around with the speed of the cold front from run to run but the ensemble mean remains mostly unchanged. 12 GEFS 12z EPS did jog a little SE from the 0z run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 22, 2022 Report Share Posted October 22, 2022 The models still have a case of the wobbles tonight, the 18z Euro took a jog back to the NW and has a nice rain from Oklahoma through KC and into eastern Iowa. KC folks we need this rain bad lets reel it in! A lot of grass fires in the area today. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2022 Let's see if nature can spark some severe wx for our E NE peeps tomorrow...the ingredients are there to produce super cells...this is a fun first significant autumn storm to track that will carry with it multiple facets. Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow..."Once upon a Time, I had a vision"...earlier this year, I was in the Park City, UT and I sat on the patio deck looking at the Trails and I had a vision of this area being hit hard this Season. I'm thrilled to see that their 1st Snow of the Season is a Big one! Quote Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 306 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022 UTZ110>113-230000- /O.CON.KSLC.WS.W.0006.221022T1800Z-221024T0600Z/ Wasatch Mountains I-80 North-Wasatch Mountains South of I-80- Western Uinta Mountains-Wasatch Plateau/Book Cliffs- Including the cities of Mantua, Logan Summit, Alta, Brighton, Mirror Lake Highway, Moon Lake, Scofield, and Indian Canyon 306 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 21 inches, locally higher in the Upper Cottonwoods and High Uintas. * WHERE...Wasatch Mountains I-80 North, Wasatch Mountains South of I-80, Western Uinta Mountains and Wasatch Plateau/Book Cliffs. * WHEN...From noon Saturday to midnight MDT Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Heavy snow will result in winter driving conditions, especially for seasonal routes and mountain passes. Backcountry access will become treacherous and should be taken into consideration for hikers, hunters, and other recreators. Be prepared for traction restrictions. On the warm side of things, you guys in the South...Look Out baby! @OttumwaSnomowand E IA peeps are riding the fine line... @Clintonnear the bullseye... 0z EPS covering all 3 potential systems....#STJ delivering the goods for our Southern folks! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 22, 2022 Report Share Posted October 22, 2022 6z Euro for the first wave. 1 1 Quote Season Snowfall: ~ 20.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 22, 2022 Report Share Posted October 22, 2022 6z Euro with 2 to 3 inch amounts for Oklahoma and N Texas. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 22, 2022 Report Share Posted October 22, 2022 If you wanted to write a perfect series of events to close out the warmth and droughty dearth of great weather down here, this is going to be it through Halloween. To say that I'm excited is an understatement. I'm glad to be excited about the weather again. 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted October 22, 2022 Report Share Posted October 22, 2022 Looks like we could have some boomers tomorrow evening. Would be a nice way to cap off this brief summer-like warmup before we fall back down to normal/below normal for the week. Speaking of summer-like temps, looking at a high around 80 today. Going to enjoy it and have a BBQ with the family this afternoon. 3 1 Quote Weather station: https://sodakweather.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 23, 2022 Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 Evening models are rolling in and the 18z Euro looks to provide some nice drought relief for the KC area and others. It's gotten so dry hear this rain has me excited like a good snow storm to track. Rain still falling over the lakes and esp Michigan at hour 90. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 23, 2022 Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 It all starts here on October 24th! I can't wait for this drought to break! 4 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 23, 2022 Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 12 hours ago, Iceresistance said: It all starts here on October 24th! I can't wait for this drought to break! WPC has a slight risk of excessive rainfall down your way. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 23, 2022 Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 Models seem to have settled on a solution for the early week storm and it's a wet one for Oklahoma, KC and areas around the lakes. 6z Euro 6z GFS 6z ICON 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 23, 2022 Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 The 6z EPS and GEFS This mornings Euro Control is a little further west so I wouldn't be surprised if the 12z Euro doesn't shift a little further west today, that would be great for Iowa. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 23, 2022 Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 The WPC has expanded it's excessive rainfall risk north, now has it knocking on my back door. Still a slight risk for severe along the Missouri River. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 23, 2022 Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 Looks to be a swing-n-a-miss for Motown. NOAA confirms we're in a drought but expect it to ease/subside by Jan 1 due to the expected influences of NINA 2 Quote Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5" Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 45.0" (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Clinton said: Models seem to have settled on a solution for the early week storm and it's a wet one for Oklahoma, KC and areas around the lakes. 6z Euro 6z GFS 6z ICON You gotta like this pattern and how we literally flipped the switch into a bonafide SW Flow that looks to unload from the Heavens! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 23, 2022 Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Tom said: You gotta like this pattern and how we literally flipped the switch into a bonafide SW Flow that looks to unload the Heavens! This storm reminds me of the storms that delivered some big snows to me last February. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 23, 2022 Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 Texas will get 2 big chances at rain this week. Starting tonight the front will bring us rain beginning late tonight early morning. Then Hurricane Rosalyn will deliver some much needed rain to Texas Hill Country and south Texas. We’re finally in the rain loop and Farmers and ranchers alike will not be complaining! Neither will lakes, rivers, or aquifers. Bring on the rain. 5 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 @OKwx2k4 @Iceresistance...gotta love the track of this closed ULL.... 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 23, 2022 Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 21 minutes ago, Tom said: @OKwx2k4 @Iceresistance...gotta love the track of this closed ULL.... If this was further into winter, that would be an incredibly fierce snowstorm! 5 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 23, 2022 Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 This is related to this storm system, it's really windy outside with the pulling in of the moisture, Dewpoint is 62°F 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 23, 2022 Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 Models are looking pretty solid for eastern Iowa. It appears there will be one band of rain, up to an inch, lifting up through my area. A second band, with the main low, will surge up through Chicago. 2 Quote season snowfall: 29.3" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 23, 2022 Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 Small cluster of thunderstorms moving in. Feels like may with a temp of 84 and some humidity. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted October 23, 2022 Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 Latest Euro shows just loads of precip for many folks over the next 10 days. Almost coast-to-coast. Unfortunately still skunking parts of the Plains states and parts of the SW but still really nice to see given how dry it's been for so long in many of these places. Very beneficial pattern change. 4 Quote Weather station: https://sodakweather.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 23, 2022 Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 18z HRRR showing what will be the biggest rain some have seen in months. 3km NAM is similar. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 23, 2022 Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 North Texas is 87* Winds Out of the South 26mph gusting to 40. Humidity 44%. Dew 60 It would seem to be blowing up a nice storm for us. Rain shouldn’t hit until after midnight. I dislike night storms as if they generate a tornado you can’t see them. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted October 23, 2022 Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 Starting to see some development down in NE near St. Paul and Clearwater areas that looks like a good track to hit here later. Thinking we are a 'go' for convection this evening and NWS FSD seems to agree. 3 Quote Weather station: https://sodakweather.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said: Latest Euro shows just loads of precip for many folks over the next 10 days. Almost coast-to-coast. Unfortunately still skunking parts of the Plains states and parts of the SW but still really nice to see given how dry it's been for so long in many of these places. Very beneficial pattern change. Especially the OH and Mississippi River basin area… 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted October 23, 2022 Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 Love it when the rays of sunshine poke through the dark clouds. The calm before the storm. 4 Quote Weather station: https://sodakweather.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 23, 2022 Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 8 hours ago, Tom said: @OKwx2k4 @Iceresistance...gotta love the track of this closed ULL.... Cannot help but think of GHD-1 2 Quote Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5" Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 45.0" (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted October 23, 2022 Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 Severe Thunderstorm Watch just issued for my county, among others in SD/IA/MN/NE. Here we go! 1 1 Quote Weather station: https://sodakweather.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 23, 2022 Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 I'm surprised that no one is mentioning that there was a tornado in Nebraska earlier and that there are active Supercells right now! 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted October 24, 2022 Report Share Posted October 24, 2022 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: Cannot help but think of GHD-1 Bring it on in 1.5 mo!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted October 24, 2022 Report Share Posted October 24, 2022 2 Quote Weather station: https://sodakweather.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 24, 2022 Report Share Posted October 24, 2022 0z HRRR pushing 3 inch totals right up to my door step. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 24, 2022 Report Share Posted October 24, 2022 Incredible day today. Dust storms, fires, possible tornado close to norfolk, and now a cold front that might bring a shower. It was an interesting drive home from kc today. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 24, 2022 Report Share Posted October 24, 2022 6z HRRR showing widespread heavy rain today. @OKwx2k4 and @Iceresistance heavy totals for E. Oklahoma. EAX has 2-3 inches in mby. 3 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 24, 2022 Report Share Posted October 24, 2022 3 hours ago, Clinton said: 6z HRRR showing widespread heavy rain today. @OKwx2k4 and @Iceresistance heavy totals for E. Oklahoma. EAX has 2-3 inches in mby. Those of us in Nebraska are jealous of this. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 24, 2022 Report Share Posted October 24, 2022 42 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: Those of us in Nebraska are jealous of this. Hope you guys get a turn soon. Nothing more aggravating than drought. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted October 24, 2022 Report Share Posted October 24, 2022 HRRR is a bit off, look at radar, the precipitation shield is much farther west than what the model shows...I think that is really good news for KC with regards to higher amounts. WE NEED A LOT, drought is pretty bad here, lots of trees and shrubs dying. Hopefully this will save a lot of them. Good to see all the heavy rain from Texas up through Oklahoma, and into MO. Going to help get some water into the OLE MISSISSIPPI 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 24, 2022 Report Share Posted October 24, 2022 Light rain falling looks like it's going to pick up to a nice steady rain. It's good to see it fall! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 24, 2022 Report Share Posted October 24, 2022 1 hour ago, MIKEKC said: HRRR is a bit off, look at radar, the precipitation shield is much farther west than what the model shows...I think that is really good news for KC with regards to higher amounts. WE NEED A LOT, drought is pretty bad here, lots of trees and shrubs dying. Hopefully this will save a lot of them. Good to see all the heavy rain from Texas up through Oklahoma, and into MO. Going to help get some water into the OLE MISSISSIPPI 14z HRRR now showing 2+ inches for KC. Good deal on that westward shift. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 24, 2022 Report Share Posted October 24, 2022 Models have diverged a bit for my area. The 3kNAM dropped to 0.5", but several other models are well over an inch, including the HRRR. Less than one inch would be a disappointment. 2 Quote season snowfall: 29.3" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted October 24, 2022 Report Share Posted October 24, 2022 1.09 inches of rain so far in my part of KC. That's the biggest rain in 4 months!!!!! Look at the GFS.... Is that a wintry look to start around Nov. 4th....Oh my, Lets GO!!! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 24, 2022 Report Share Posted October 24, 2022 1.25” rain, 67* and more storms rolling in around 9pm tonight. Wind will pick up with gusts to 35mph. Low 50 tonight. It’s been really welcomed. Can’t wait to get bounced out of bed tonight with thunder. 2 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2022 Report Share Posted October 24, 2022 I got clouds this late pm Quote Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5" Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 45.0" (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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