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10/23 - 10/30 Series of Storms/Cutters

Tom

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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The Long awaited pattern change is about to commence as the 1st trough is tracking into the PAC NW today.   This energy will track thru the N Rockies and spin up into our 1st significant Autumn storm for the Upper MW during the Sun/Mon period.  Will there be flakes flying for the those up north??  It will be the culprit as to how many of you will enjoy a bonafide Indian Summer weekend as this storm pumps up warmth over the heartland. 

0z GEFS...

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_nc.png

 

 

Then we we have to monitor a very complex scenario as a trough that is spinning off the PAC coast heads into the SW region and interacts with the main trough that tracks through the central Rockies.  Not only that, but there is a tropical storm off the Mexican coastline that appears to track into N Mexico enhancing this fascinating scenario.  Possible TriFecta???

 

image.gif

 

Could there be 1st flakes for someone in the heartland??  0z GEFS....hmmm???

 

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_c.png

 

0z Euro precip...

1.png

2.png

 

0z UKIE...

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

 

qpf_acc.us_c.png

 

Finally, there is a 3rd storm that the models are showing but the ultimate track is TBD...Bowling Ball??  Possible.  The key point here is we are entering a more active pattern and tracking systems through the Sub.  I have to say, it's not trending favorably for the central Plains of NE/SD.  Let's discuss!

image.png

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Clinton
Clinton

6z HRRR showing widespread heavy rain today.  @OKwx2k4 and @Iceresistance heavy totals for E. Oklahoma.  EAX has 2-3 inches in mby.

Clinton
Clinton

And it will likely be stronger when we get to Winter.  Oklahoma snow storm?

Tom
Tom

The Long awaited pattern change is about to commence as the 1st trough is tracking into the PAC NW today.   This energy will track thru the N Rockies and spin up into our 1st significant Autumn storm

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CentralNebWeather Grand Master

CentralNebWeather

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Tom said:

The Long awaited pattern change is about to commence as the 1st trough is tracking into the PAC NW today.   This energy will track thru the N Rockies and spin up into our 1st significant Autumn storm for the Upper MW during the Sun/Mon period.  Will there be flakes flying for the those up north??  It will be the culprit as to how many of you will enjoy a bonafide Indian Summer weekend as this storm pumps up warmth over the heartland. 

0z GEFS...

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_nc.png

 

 

Then we we have to monitor a very complex scenario as a trough that is spinning off the PAC coast heads into the SW region and interacts with the main trough that tracks through the central Rockies.  Not only that, but there is a tropical storm off the Mexican coastline that appears to track into N Mexico enhancing this fascinating scenario.  Possible TriFecta???

 

image.gif

 

Could there be 1st flakes for someone in the heartland??  0z GEFS....hmmm???

 

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_c.png

 

0z Euro precip...

1.png

2.png

 

0z UKIE...

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

 

qpf_acc.us_c.png

 

Finally, there is a 3rd storm that the models are showing but the ultimate track is TBD...Bowling Ball??  Possible.  The key point here is we are entering a more active pattern and tracking systems through the Sub.  I have to say, it's not trending favorably for the central Plains of NE/SD.  Let's discuss!

image.png

Why do these maps look familiar?  Seen these misses to the Southeast way too many times over the years.  NWS Hastings is now back to putting blowing dust in the forecast on Sunday.  Moisture sure doesn't look good around here.  

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mlgamer Proficient

mlgamer

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Tom said:

 

image.gif

 

Tom, I was about to create this very same GIF and post it. It's been a LONG time since I have seen a healthy closed low take this track. It actually reminds me of storms of the late 70s / early 80s. With cold air this would be a near perfect heavy snow track for me. The Canadian (and 06z GFS) has a similar storm and track. Even if it doesn't pan out, it was fun to see and be reminded of storms of yesteryear...lol

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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14 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Tom, I was about to create this very same GIF and post it. It's been a LONG time since I have seen a healthy closed low take this track. It actually reminds me of storms of the late 70s / early 80s. With cold air this would be a near perfect heavy snow track for me. The Canadian (and 06z GFS) has a similar storm and track. Even if it doesn't pan out, it was fun to see and be reminded of storms of yesteryear...lol

“Great Minds Think Alike”…I have personally witnessed many times on here when these synchronicities happen.  It’s real cool to see how the weather bonds us all together as we  read and learn from one another.  

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

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Bah.  Yesterday models trended very favorably for Iowa.  Overnight and this morning, however, models are trending back southeast, especially with the closed southern low.  Even the ICON and GDPS (Canadian), which were the most nw and bullish, have shifted significantly southeast and now miss Iowa.  Models now show eastern Iowa only getting some light rain from the initial surge up the front.

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season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Let's see if nature can spark some severe wx for our E NE peeps tomorrow...the ingredients are there to produce super cells...this is a fun first significant autumn storm to track that will carry with it multiple facets.

 

image.png

 

Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow..."Once upon a Time, I had a vision"...earlier this year, I was in the Park City, UT and I sat on the patio deck looking at the Trails and I had a vision of this area being hit hard this Season.  I'm thrilled to see that their 1st Snow of the Season is a Big one!

Quote

Winter Storm Warning 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
306 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

UTZ110>113-230000-
/O.CON.KSLC.WS.W.0006.221022T1800Z-221024T0600Z/
Wasatch Mountains I-80 North-Wasatch Mountains South of I-80-
Western Uinta Mountains-Wasatch Plateau/Book Cliffs-
Including the cities of Mantua, Logan Summit, Alta, Brighton,
Mirror Lake Highway, Moon Lake, Scofield, and Indian Canyon
306 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 21
  inches, locally higher in the Upper Cottonwoods and High Uintas.

* WHERE...Wasatch Mountains I-80 North, Wasatch Mountains South
  of I-80, Western Uinta Mountains and Wasatch Plateau/Book
  Cliffs.

* WHEN...From noon Saturday to midnight MDT Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Heavy snow will result in winter driving conditions,
  especially for seasonal routes and mountain passes.
  Backcountry access will become treacherous and should be taken
  into consideration for hikers, hunters, and other recreators.
  Be prepared for traction restrictions.

 

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On the warm side of things, you guys in the South...Look Out baby!

4.png

 

@OttumwaSnomowand E IA peeps are riding the fine line... @Clintonnear the bullseye...

3.png

 

0z EPS covering all 3 potential systems....#STJ delivering the goods for our Southern folks!

 

image.png

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Clinton Grand Master

Clinton

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Evening models are rolling in and the 18z Euro looks to provide some nice drought relief for the KC area and others.  It's gotten so dry hear this rain has me excited like a good snow storm to track.

1666785600-6Y0SvHPio60.png

Rain still falling over the lakes and esp Michigan at hour 90.

1666785600-si3CU1hboic.png

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Looks to be a swing-n-a-miss for Motown. NOAA confirms we're in a drought but expect it to ease/subside by Jan 1 due to the expected influences of NINA

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Models seem to have settled on a solution for the early week storm and it's a wet one for Oklahoma, KC and areas around the lakes.

6z Euro

1666828800-2NFqhmmupLU.png

6z GFS

1666828800-ALQxA8FK7fI.png

6z ICON

1666818000-6XaK0WSCk9w.png

You gotta like this pattern and how we literally flipped the switch into a bonafide SW Flow that looks to unload from the Heavens!

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Andie Grand Master

Andie

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Texas will get 2 big chances at rain this week. 
Starting tonight the front will bring us rain beginning late tonight early morning.   

Then Hurricane Rosalyn will deliver some much needed rain to Texas Hill Country and south Texas.  
We’re finally in the rain loop and Farmers and ranchers alike will not be complaining!   Neither will lakes, rivers, or aquifers. Bring on the rain.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Iceresistance Grand Master

Iceresistance

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21 minutes ago, Tom said:

@OKwx2k4 @Iceresistance...gotta love the track of this closed ULL....

image.gif

If this was further into winter, that would be an incredibly fierce snowstorm!

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

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Models are looking pretty solid for eastern Iowa.  It appears there will be one band of rain, up to an inch, lifting up through my area.  A second band, with the main low, will surge up through Chicago.  

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season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Andie Grand Master

Andie

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North Texas is 87* 

Winds Out of the South 26mph gusting to 40. 
Humidity 44%. Dew 60

It would seem to be blowing up a nice storm for us.  Rain shouldn’t hit until after midnight.  I dislike night storms as if they generate a tornado you can’t see them. 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Latest Euro shows just loads of precip for many folks over the next 10 days. Almost coast-to-coast. Unfortunately still skunking parts of the Plains states and parts of the SW but still really nice to see given how dry it's been for so long in many of these places. Very beneficial pattern change.

index (35).png

Especially the OH and Mississippi River basin area…

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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8 hours ago, Tom said:

@OKwx2k4 @Iceresistance...gotta love the track of this closed ULL....

image.gif

Cannot help but think of GHD-1

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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MIKEKC Rising Star

MIKEKC

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Posted

HRRR is a bit off, look at radar, the precipitation shield is much farther west than what the model shows...I think that is really good news for KC with regards to higher amounts. WE NEED A LOT, drought is pretty bad here, lots of trees and shrubs dying. Hopefully this will save a lot of them.

Good to see all the heavy rain from Texas up through Oklahoma, and into MO. Going to help get some water into the OLE MISSISSIPPI

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Clinton Grand Master

Clinton

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1 hour ago, MIKEKC said:

HRRR is a bit off, look at radar, the precipitation shield is much farther west than what the model shows...I think that is really good news for KC with regards to higher amounts. WE NEED A LOT, drought is pretty bad here, lots of trees and shrubs dying. Hopefully this will save a lot of them.

Good to see all the heavy rain from Texas up through Oklahoma, and into MO. Going to help get some water into the OLE MISSISSIPPI

14z HRRR now showing 2+ inches for KC.  Good deal on that westward shift.

image.thumb.png.22ec801546a858f531766ef7d8f14cdc.png

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

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Posted

Models have diverged a bit for my area.  The 3kNAM dropped to 0.5", but several other models are well over an inch, including the HRRR.  Less than one inch would be a disappointment.

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season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Andie Grand Master

Andie

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Posted

1.25” rain, 67* and more storms rolling in around 9pm tonight. 
Wind will pick up with gusts to 35mph. Low 50 tonight. 
It’s been really welcomed. Can’t wait to get bounced out of bed tonight with thunder.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

I got clouds this late pm

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

I'm up to 1.08", so I'm happy.  We should get a few more tenths.

I also received 0.11" later yesterday through this morning, so that counts, too.

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season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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jcwxguy Experienced

jcwxguy

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Had a bad jumpscare this morning with 4 Tornadoes! Including two just to the south of my School! The one in Mustang is the strongest compared to the rest of them. 

i have a close friend who lives in Mustang, the sirens never went off. 

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