September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

For stress-related illness and irony's sake, the blob is in better shape now than it was a year ago:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.9.10.2015.gif

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.9.12.2016.gif

 

Much different location of course. This year, it's centered in the GOA. Last year, off the CA coast.

[James Jones]

It's worth noting that the surface temp sources have been running easily warmer this year than the troposphere sources. 2016 is still running record warm according to GISS, but there's been cooling since the peak in Jan-Mar on the satellite sources, as they tend to respond faster to ENSO changes.

 

I expect we'll start to see some cooling on the surface sources by October.

 

Yes, the satellite sources have always been far more sensitive to ENSO than the surface sources, and they show less warming in general, so that's no surprise.

 

I'm sure the surface will start cooling by October, and the string of record warm months will probably be over after September. It'd be shocking if it didn't considering we're in a weak Nina now while we were in the midst of the strongest Nino on record a year ago.

[Bryant]

Looking for some straight forward answers or links if possible. The "blob" obviously is being talked about again, and I want to know if it really does influence our climate in any way? The SST's in that area are simply a reflection of the upper level circulations, which in this case is high pressure resulting in less mixing of the waters. Does this truly alter the airmass enough to make a difference? Most of the blob is hype, and the "so much for winter" posts on FB are exaggerated (even if they are being serious), but I'm honestly curious. I'm assuming any type of warming, if any, would be isolated to the coastline? Thanks!

[TT-SEA]

Looking for some straight forward answers or links if possible. The "blob" obviously is being talked about again, and I want to know if it really does influence our climate in any way? The SST's in that area are simply a reflection of the upper level circulations, which in this case is high pressure resulting in less mixing of the waters. Does this truly alter the airmass enough to make a difference? Most of the blob is hype, and the "so much for winter" posts on FB are exaggerated (even if they are being serious), but I'm honestly curious. I'm assuming any type of warming, if any, would be isolated to the coastline? Thanks!

 

 

Good luck... there are no answers.   Its a chicken and egg thing that has debated for years on here.   Cliff Mass is convinced it results in warmer temperatures overall across the lowlands and not just at the coast.  Matt completely disagrees.    So many variables in play... might not be possible to isolate it.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I believe the blob talk is way overrated and agree with Matt. It is a symptom of the persistent Western ridge which has dominated for the past several years. It is not the cause. 

[TT-SEA]

I believe the blob talk is way overrated and agree with Matt. It is a symptom of the persistent Western ridge which has dominated for the past several years. It is not the cause. 

 

But Jim constantly reminds us how important it is to have anomalous surface high pressure in the GOA... which seems like it would create the blob.    Maybe its a position issue... but the blob is over the GOA right where Jim wants the surface high.

[luminen]

December 2013 crushes the blob.

[Deweydog]

Much different location of course. This year, it's centered in the GOA. Last year, off the CA coast.

 

Massive differences.  Like night and day, Hillary and Donald.  

[Bryant]

I believe the blob talk is way overrated and agree with Matt. It is a symptom of the persistent Western ridge which has dominated for the past several years. It is not the cause.

This is what I have always agreed with. I was just wanting to hear evidence from the other side possibly, or have some supporting numbers provided.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

But Jim constantly reminds us how important it is to have anomalous surface high pressure in the GOA... which seems like it would create the blob.    Maybe its a position issue... but the blob is over the GOA right where Jim wants the surface high.

 

Maybe this winter we will get annihilated by arctic air.  

[Bryant]

But Jim constantly reminds us how important it is to have anomalous surface high pressure in the GOA... which seems like it would create the blob. Maybe its a position issue... but the blob is over the GOA right where Jim wants the surface high.

If I'm not mistaken, Jim would want the high centered a bit further west.

[Phil]

Finalizing my first set of winter analogs. Will post later tonight.

 

General theme is a blocky winter overall..A strong NPAC/EPO block develops in November/December as a dominant signal. During January, the NAO block becomes the dominant signal, before the NPAC/EPO becomes dominant again in February/March.

 

Strongest signal for Arctic air in the PNW is in February, with a decent look in November also.

[TT-SEA]

Finalizing my first set of winter analogs. Will post later tonight.

 

General theme is a blocky winter overall..A strong NPAC/EPO block develops in November/December as a dominant signal. During January, the NAO block becomes the dominant signal, before the NPAC/EPO becomes dominant again in February/March.

 

Strongest signal for Arctic air in the PNW is in February, with a decent look in November also.

 

Love blocky winters!    It has to be better than last winter regardless.   

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 18Z GFS ensemble mean gets us down to just normal early next week and then warming up again.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[Geos]

Very nice day today. High of 74° with dew points in the lower 40s.

[wx_statman]

Yes, there was lots of talk on here that a new -PDO phase would mean a 1945-75 style global cooldown.

 

I remember it well. 

[wx_statman]

The last 3 years have really made up for the "pause" we saw in the 2000s.  August 2016 was the warmest on record globally yet again, not many cold anomalies to be found anywhere on the planet:

 

http://i.imgur.com/iiq9ytT.png

 

Maybe in the 2050s some of us will still be posting on this forum, reminiscing over how cool the 2010s were. 

 

We've been on an absolute tear globally, especially in the last 16 months. We were already cooking in 2014, but the Nino in 2015-16 took things to another level. Jeff Masters at Wunderground has done a good job providing updates on global temperature records as they've been falling. 

[wx_statman]

Finalizing my first set of winter analogs. Will post later tonight.

 

General theme is a blocky winter overall..A strong NPAC/EPO block develops in November/December as a dominant signal. During January, the NAO block becomes the dominant signal, before the NPAC/EPO becomes dominant again in February/March.

 

Strongest signal for Arctic air in the PNW is in February, with a decent look in November also.

 

Wouldn't be surprising for a Nina. 1955-56 and 2010-11 come to mind. Then again, those were stronger events. 

[Phil]

Post #1 of 3.

 

So, overview. First, here's all -ENSO/+QBO winters, no adjusting for ENSO amplitude, solar activity, etc. Just raw.

 

On a monthly basis from October - March.

 

October:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C3E8D8F4-6E39-4840-B7AF-4EA4ABF7DA77_zpsmsbg9owq.png

 

November:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7C4B0E02-66D5-4171-9A8B-6AEB2B3282F1_zpsnjco8k7t.png

 

December:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/668A1C0A-08C6-424D-ACD1-5A8D7FDA8E07_zpslz40fnek.png

 

January:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B3945546-46DC-4925-B13E-D09A228DE727_zpsvru6ulno.png

 

February:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/8C9A2DC2-B386-4785-8203-CC4783FFA8D4_zpszifsleqr.png

 

March:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4547D03B-B668-4BA5-97C2-A0DA466D658D_zpsbkbj1jli.png

 

What stands out here is the flip in the NPAC pattern from October to November, and the polar blocking signal peaking in January. However, this analog aggregate is not sufficient given that ENSO amplitude and solar activity are not accounted for..

 

In the next post, I'll eliminate the stronger -ENSOs and the weaker QBO matches.

[Phil]

Post #2 of 4.

 

Here, I've eliminated the weaker QBO matches and stronger Niñas. However, I have NOT adjusted for solar. Same resolution, monthly basis, October-March:

 

October:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C1223069-6113-4EFC-94BF-D5D25B9DC82A_zpsmipdhmah.png

 

November:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4315B30B-6CA9-4B53-B4CA-B6AAAAB98417_zpswnypor71.png

 

December:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F9DC4C3E-2122-4735-A7D9-EDBECF8D15B2_zpsinumae1m.png

 

January:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1996043E-A6A1-4902-A718-F21258032304_zpsctpsq4l9.png

 

February:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C59C3EDE-8AF8-4939-9F7D-31769AEAD8F0_zpsczzqulrh.png

 

March:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/9C88D26F-0F24-405F-ACB0-B2FD3216FC47_zpsk3raagyt.png

 

Note how, despite everything being shifted east, the same signal emerges, with the flip in the NPAC pattern from October/November, and polar blocking peaking in January, before that February signal shows up again.

 

However, without accounting for solar activity, this could also be a problematic analog aggregate. So, in the next post, I'll return all the -ENSOs/+QBO back into the aggregate, and factor for solar instead.

[Phil]

Post #3 of 3.

 

This is an analog aggregate with all -ENSOs/+QBOs featuring low solar/geomag forcing. Note, the geomag cycle (which is possibly more influential on the NAM state than UV/TSI) lags the sunspot cycle by a few years.

 

Same resolution, monthly basis, October-March.

 

October:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/D970A8B8-A8C0-4711-A703-08687C407ECF_zpsw71avots.png

 

November:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/80B38500-DDEF-440E-92D6-F9C31A119137_zpsd6j5ja4m.png

 

December:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/081362DF-465B-4F18-8518-E2C93D0A5E4A_zpsnsuotiz6.png

 

January:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B3394473-9F04-4787-A521-B18679288A21_zpsnjofgelz.png

 

February:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/E4A03D5D-2230-4557-9F12-1B2F1CB96FBB_zps6qditd0k.png

 

March:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/764927C3-C296-4E91-AEBA-856249977FD4_zpso5g8hxql.png

 

Again, same signal w/ regards to the flip in NPAC pattern sometime between October/November, and polar blocking peaking during January. However, we also get a stronger NAO blocking signal in December here, and more of a -PNA blocking signal in February.

[Phil]

I guess I could theoretically do a QBO-rooted analysis, too, given ENSO/solar are both in non-extraordinary states right now.

[Phil]

I think the only supported conclusion(s) we can reach right now are:

 

1) Blocking is favored to develop over the NPAC by/during November.

 

2) Polar blocking (-NAM/-NAO et al) is favored to reach maximum strength during January.

 

3) While all months show potential for Arctic intrusion for Arctic intrusion into the PNW, the months of November/December and/or February look to hold the strongest signal, while January and March hold a less impressive signal.

 

4) We'll know by November if winter 2016-17 is following this historical guide, or whether the system goes a different route. If the winter fails, it will probably be due to a strong +EPO/Western-Arctic Vortex pattern.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Looking for some straight forward answers or links if possible. The "blob" obviously is being talked about again, and I want to know if it really does influence our climate in any way? The SST's in that area are simply a reflection of the upper level circulations, which in this case is high pressure resulting in less mixing of the waters. Does this truly alter the airmass enough to make a difference? Most of the blob is hype, and the "so much for winter" posts on FB are exaggerated (even if they are being serious), but I'm honestly curious. I'm assuming any type of warming, if any, would be isolated to the coastline? Thanks!

 

Cliff Mass ran some model simulations that showed an increase of 1-2F over land (I'm assuming that was for SEA). http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2016/09/the-blob-is-back.html

 

It's not a linear relationship... ie, if the blob anomaly is +4C, our observed temperature increase would only be a fraction of that, but that might still be enough to screw us during marginal snow situations.

 

I would think the effects would be most profound right by the coast, but there should be effects everywhere west of the Cascades.

[Phil]

Or..if the "January curse" in the PNW is really just a fluke, then perhaps the signal showing the strongest blocking occurring in January should be interpreted differently.

[Front Ranger]

I think the only supported conclusion(s) we can reach right now are:

 

1) Blocking is favored to develop over the NPAC by/during November.

 

2) Polar blocking (-NAM/-NAO et al) is favored to reach maximum strength during January.

 

3) While all months show potential for Arctic intrusion for Arctic intrusion into the PNW, the months of November/December and/or February look to hold the strongest signal, while January and March hold a less impressive signal.

 

4) We'll know by November if winter 2016-17 is following this historical guide, or whether the system goes a different route. If the winter fails, it will probably be due to a strong +EPO/Western-Arctic Vortex pattern.

 

Another front-loaded winter??? 

 

 

[Phil]

Another front-loaded winter???

Haha, I guess it depends how you interpret the results, no?

 

I'll see if I can nail things down more concretely over the next several weeks.

[Front Ranger]

Haha, I guess it depends how you interpret the results, no?

 

I'll see if I can nail things down more concretely over the next several weeks.

 

If you were Jim, Tim would be warning you about using such words.

[Bryant]

If you were Jim, Tim would be warning you about using such words.

You got that right

[Phil]

Very weak SST gradient over the N/NEPAC right now.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_global_1.png

[TT-SEA]

Very weak SST gradient over the N/NEPAC right now.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_global_1.png

 

 

Does that mean the jet stream will tend to be weaker than the models show?   Or do the models take that into account?

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS moves up timing over the weekend... looks like models are meeting in the middle as usual.   

 

GFS saw it first... then abandoned the idea when the ECMWF picked it up... now coming back.   

 

Looks like ridging coming back early next week.   And all of this is basically nothing for Portland so Mark ends up right as well.  

[snow_wizard]

Cliff Mass ran some model simulations that showed an increase of 1-2F over land (I'm assuming that was for SEA). http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2016/09/the-blob-is-back.html

 

It's not a linear relationship... ie, if the blob anomaly is +4C, our observed temperature increase would only be a fraction of that, but that might still be enough to screw us during marginal snow situations.

 

I would think the effects would be most profound right by the coast, but there should be effects everywhere west of the Cascades.

 

I say again...the blob is different this year than the past two.  The PDO numbers bear that out.

[snow_wizard]

Right now a below September is looking like it has a good shot at happening.

 

What an amazing day it was today!  A nice 73-44 IMBY.  A few degrees cooler would have been even better, but I'll take it.

[TT-SEA]

Right now a below September is looking like it has a good shot at happening.

 

 

 

Jinx!

[snow_wizard]

If I'm not mistaken, Jim would want the high centered a bit further west.

 

I'm actually pretty happy with where it has been.

 

EDIT:  To clarify I'm happy with the mean position of the positive surface pressure and 500mb anoms over the NE Pacific over the past 2.5 months or so.  With the current situation 5 degrees further west would have been perfect.

[Timmy Supercell]

Very gusty winds in Klamath Falls right now. Walls are "rumbling". Yet KLMT only reads 19mph. Today is the day I feel more desperation for a station. But we may not be in this town very much longer. I'll have to suffer not buying one here until we relocate.

 

Comparing to previous actual "windstorm" occurrences, sounds like 50+ occurring up the hill at my house. Huge difference from the airport.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very gusty winds in Klamath Falls right now. Walls are "rumbling". Yet KLMT only reads 19mph. Today is the day I feel more desperation for a station. But we may not be in this town very much longer. I'll have to suffer not buying one here until we relocate.

 

Comparing to previous actual "windstorm" occurrences, sounds like 50+ occurring up the hill at my house. Huge difference from the airport.

 

Where are you guys heading?

[Timmy Supercell]

Where are you guys heading?

 

We're not sure exactly. Either another eastern Oregon town or in northern CA. My father is looking to own a rental property somewhere but it's not going to be right away.

 

Winds getting louder now as I type.... Wow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We're not sure exactly. Either another eastern Oregon town or in northern CA. My father is looking to own a rental property somewhere but it's not going to be right away.

 

Winds getting louder now as I type.... Wow.

 

You sound like Rob now during an east wind event. lol