Jesse Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Seems like a "perfect storm" tomorrow for those interested in cold anomalies. Looks to be a perfectly timed warm front that will allow temps to fall down into the low 50's overnight tonight with the muck beginning around commute time or shortly thereafter. ECWMF says 59º for a high tomorrow. EPS mean sits at 61º. GFS MOS guidance sits 59º. It's actually too bad that the record low, high is only 54º tomorrow.Yeah, interesting setup. Timing is everything. Today should actually have equally impressive cold anoms with the cooler lows. PDX looks to pull off a -7 or -8. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Is that a flock of birds or just something weird with the photo in front of the cloud? Probably crows. There's always huge flocks of crows flying in the late afternoon and evening here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Nate sure is taking his time with that August PDO number. Clearly he realizes what is on the line. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Looking very likely October starts off below normal. We're on the right track at least for now. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Yikes! PDX up three degrees in the last hour. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 The WRF shows tomorrow being downright cool in Seattle. Only low to mid 50s in the mid afternoon. Pretty wild temperature swings Sunday through Tuesday. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Yikes! PDX up three degrees in the last hour. We're more than due for a day where SEA owns PDX for minus anomalies. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 We're more than due for a day where SEA owns PDX for minus anomalies.We're due for a lot of things. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 We're more than due for a day where SEA owns PDX for minus anomalies. MOS guidance shows a high of 58 tomorrow for PDX. It would surprise me to see lows fall much below 53-54 there, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 PDX down three degrees in the last hour! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PacNW44 Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Nate sure is taking his time with that August PDO number. Clearly he realizes what is on the line. The August # is .52 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 The August # is .52Where'd you find it? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 The ECMWF looks a wee bit chilly. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PacNW44 Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Where'd you find it? I received a copy of his email when he issued the # on 9/13, not sure why the UW table hasn't been updated yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 54F and rain Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Possible windstorm on the 12Z GFS at 240 hours... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_240_precip_p03.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Possible windstorm on the 12Z GFS at 240 hours... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_240_precip_p03.gifClassic windstorm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Possible windstorm on the 12Z GFS at 240 hours... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_240_precip_p03.gifYes please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Looks like we're going to enter a NPAC vortex pattern during the second week of October. Good news is that it might set up far enough W/SW to allow ridging to continue over AK/NE-PAC. If it does establish farther E/NE, into the upper GOA/Alaska, that's somewhat more problematic given it might be difficult to dislodge, as evidenced by years like 1966, 1975, 2005, 2007, etc. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Wow, long range opens up the faucet with more than 5" of rain. Good thing that changes every 6 hours. Phil, 2007 had decent snowstorms here though, so that wouldn't be bad. I don't know how it was further south though. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Looks like we're going to enter a NPAC vortex pattern during the second week of October. Good news is that it might set up far enough W/SW to allow ridging to continue over AK/NE-PAC. If it does establish farther E/NE, into the upper GOA/Alaska, that's somewhat more problematic given it might be difficult to dislodge, as evidenced by years like 1966, 1975, 2005, 2007, etc.Do you foresee the mean trough position being over the PNW throughout October? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Wow, long range opens up the faucet with more than 5" of rain. Good thing that changes every 6 hours. Phil, 2007 had decent snowstorms here though, so that wouldn't be bad. I don't know how it was further south though.Great, if you lived in the foothills. Frustratingly disappointing for most everyone else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 The next week is looking pretty cool overall. The upcoming sharp ridge is looking more and more like a short-lived blip on the radar. Pretty fun, dynamic pattern we have been in lately. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Wow, long range opens up the faucet with more than 5" of rain. Good thing that changes every 6 hours. Phil, 2007 had decent snowstorms here though, so that wouldn't be bad. I don't know how it was further south though. Even the southern Cascades scored in 2007. I know some folks who have been here since the 80's and there were bigger snows in 2007 than the next 8 years. Except this last December was probably bigger locally since we had the most monthly snowfall since the 90's. Probably 10-12 inches on the ground during the Pineapple festival / windstorm in the lowlands. I personally thoroughly enjoyed the warm rains we had and the wind. Almost lost power in Hillsboro during that one. I don't know the exact ins-and-outs but for some reason K-Falls didn't get that much snow in Dec 2008... Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 The next week is looking pretty cool overall. The upcoming sharp ridge is looking more and more like a short-lived blip on the radar. Pretty fun, dynamic pattern we have been in lately.That's a pretty wicked trough next Saturday on the euro. 850's may drop below 0 with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 It's snowing on some bc highways right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 It's snowing on some bc highways right now. Is that Pennask summit? That one is way up there. Like pushing 6000' isn't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Is that Pennask summit? That one is way up there. Like pushing 6000' isn't it?It is, and around 5500'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Today seemed to be an easier jog to 60 than anticipated, down here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Today seemed to be an easier jog to 60 than anticipated, down here.Windchills are a factor! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Do you foresee the mean trough position being over the PNW throughout October?I think (at least) through the first 10 days of October, yeah. Thereafter, I'm watching for the development of a North Pacific trough..if we're able to keep it far enough W/SW, NE Pacific ridging may continue, allowing for N/NW flow over the NW US/BC. If it establishes too far E/NE, that opens the door to W/SW flow and/or a Pacific hose job, which would probably be a mild/moist pattern, though I doubt it'd result in a blowtorch. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Today seemed to be an easier jog to 60 than anticipated, down here. Low was 52 at PDX. Pretty difficult to see a Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 I think (at least) through the first 10 days of October, yeah. Thereafter, I'm watching for the development of a North Pacific trough..if we're able to keep it far enough W/SW, NE Pacific ridging may continue, allowing for N/NW flow over the NW US/BC. If it establishes too far E/NE, that opens the door to W/SW flow and/or a Pacific hose job, which would probably be a mild/moist pattern, though I doubt it'd result in a blowtorch.For the record, I'm talking about the large scale upper level pattern, not the surface results. I don't yet have a sufficient understanding of the local-scale climate dynamics in play. Definitely figured this out over the summer, as the upper level pattern behaved largely as I anticipated it to, while conditions at the surface wound up slightly warmer than I was thinking, sometimes much warmer. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Low was 52 at PDX. Pretty difficult to see a Indeed. Around 60 looking like a good call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 12Z ECMWF is great... basically sunny after today through next Thursday. Some rain next Friday then clearing from the north on Saturday and then a cool, crisp early October pattern setting up. I prefer that to warm rain for sure. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 It'd be nice if PDX broke their pathetic record low max of 60 on October 1st. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 The 12z EPS depicts the ideal scenario regarding the NPAC vortex. Keeps it far enough west to actually constructively interfere w/ the antecedent NEPAC ridge and Siberian High, leading to a bihemispheric "ridge bridge". During winter, this would direct cross-polar flow right into the western US. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/EE8F78B3-EB69-4A96-BB55-9C27A233C7BB_zpsvybvztem.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 SEA popped up to 60 on the last update. WRF last night was too cold... as it often is in these situations. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 SEA popped up to 60 on the last update. WRF last night was too cold... as it often is in these situations. The station that matters is still in the mid 50s. All is well. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 The station that matters is still in the mid 50s. All is well. Ahh... good to know. Although they might also get some late afternoon clearing and SW winds. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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