September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

That ridge that develops between Hawaii and the Aleutians on some of the LR guidance is the worst possible thing that could happen. That's the mechanical loading pattern for a fully coupled +EPO. Last October comes to mind.

 

That would be a nightmare.  I have my doubts given recent trends.

[TT-SEA]

This is based off of what? Your hopes?

 

 

Don't know for sure... intuition?    It feels like the next step in this evolution.

 

Sorry that I can't be more concrete.     I often think the pattern is going to evolve in ways I don't personally like.    

[TT-SEA]

Quite well huh? In the form of you replying to everyone of his posts with a cold hearted jab type of "quite well"? Your idea of a healthy relationship seems a bit off

 

I have probably responded to less than 5% of his posts.    

 

You should go back and just review this past weekend for starters.

 

And we have had some conversations as well.   More cordial than with you or Jesse... ever.  

[Jesse]

Quite well huh? In the form of you replying to everyone of his posts with a cold hearted jab type of "quite well"? Your idea of a healthy relationship seems a bit off

 

Pretty hilarious that he would call anyone mean spirited. I think there is a picture of his avatar by the term in webster's.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty hilarious that he would call anyone mean spirited. I think there is a picture of his avatar by the term in webster's.

 

 

You hate a warming climate.    And anyone who does not hate it as much as you do.    

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is really cool for the weekend and early next week.  A pretty good chance of seeing our first highs in the 50s.  Could be an opportunity for quite a few areas to score lows in the 30s also.  If the surface low early next week tracks as advertised that could produce a ridiculously cool day if the timing is right.

[TT-SEA]

WRF will be interesting.

 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_extended/images_d2/slp.147.0000.gif

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_extended/images_d2/slp.153.0000.gif

[Jesse]

00z ensembles look pretty solidly cool.

 

Although I threw several stones at a glass bottle 60 feet, 6 inches away from me today and have since determined that we are actually in for 45 days of warmth. I call it intuition.

[snow_wizard]

00z ensembles look pretty solidly cool.

 

Although I threw several stones at a glass bottle 60 feet, 6 inches away from me today and have since determined that we are actually in for 45 days of warmth. I call it intuition.

 

I wouldn't mind maybe 30 to 40 days of warmth in November / early December.  After a cold October that would be a pretty good lead up to get cold during actual winter for a change.

[TT-SEA]

00z ensembles look pretty solidly cool.

 

Although I threw several stones at a glass bottle 60 feet, 6 inches away from me today and have since determined that we are actually in for 45 days of warmth. I call it intuition.

Its not always right... although those 45 days might end up above normal in Seattle.

[snow_wizard]

Major snowfall being shown on the WRF for the Cascades early next week, particularly north of Snoqualmie Pass.  Looking like this coming trough is going to have some teeth.

[Jesse]

I wouldn't mind maybe 30 to 40 days of warmth in November / early December. After a cold October that would be a pretty good lead up to get cold during actual winter for a change.

I was actually mocking an inaccurate wishcast made a few weeks ago.

[TT-SEA]

Since September 7th...  SEA is at +1.1 and WFO SEA is at about +1.0

 

We will see what October brings when all is said and done.

 

Only looking at the Seattle area of course.

[TT-SEA]

By the way... the 45-day comment was total sarcasm and not a forecast.    Mocking the 'woe is me' attitude from Jesse with comments about a week of troughing needing to be paid for with weeks of warmth.   

[snow_wizard]

I was actually mocking an inaccurate wishcast made a few weeks ago.

 

I figured.

[snow_wizard]

Since September 7th...  SEA is at +1.1 and WFO SEA is at about +1.0

 

We will see what October brings when all is said and done.

 

Only looking at the Seattle area of course.

 

IMBY it's been pretty cool fairly consistently this month thanks to chilly nights.  The Seattle stations both do terrible with radiational cooling.  Fall colors are really starting to pop here with the cold nights and sunny days.

[TT-SEA]

IMBY it's been pretty cool fairly consistently this month thanks to chilly nights.  The Seattle stations both do terrible with radiational cooling.  Fall colors are really starting to pop here with the cold nights and sunny days.

Fall color has been accelerated since August due to earlier stress. When we drove from Portland to Seattle in mid August it was amazing to see how much yellow color was already on display.

[Phil]

That would be a nightmare. I have my doubts given recent trends.

Good news is the 00z CMC ensembles don't agree. Waiting on the 00z ECMWF/EPS. The long range bias-corrected GEFS is a full blown Pineapple Express slaughterfest during week 2. Tim's nightmare..lots of warm rain.

 

It's that "flat" ridge south of the Aleutians that can cause problems. Can be a very tough to break given its nature to (locally) constructive interfere.

[Jesse]

IMBY it's been pretty cool fairly consistently this month thanks to chilly nights.  The Seattle stations both do terrible with radiational cooling.  Fall colors are really starting to pop here with the cold nights and sunny days.

 

Indeed. The colors have really been starting to pop here over the last week or so.

 

It has been a gorgeous month.

[BLI snowman]

Indeed. The colors have really been starting to pop here over the last week or so.

 

It has been a gorgeous month.

 

Definitely feels like we are ahead of the last two years for color. We should have a way to quantify this stuff.

[TT-SEA]

Cloudy tomorrow morning but sunny by afternoon.

 

After Thursday... 18 out of 21 days here will have been pretty much sunny. Nice run for September.

[snow_wizard]

Good news is the 00z CMC ensembles don't agree. Waiting on the 00z ECMWF/EPS. The long range bias-corrected GEFS is a full blown Pineapple Express slaughterfest during week 2. Tim's nightmare..lots of warm rain.

 

It's that "flat" ridge south of the Aleutians that can cause problems. Can be a very tough to break given its nature to (locally) constructive interfere.

 

Yuck...We don't want to see that yet.  That pattern in November can historically be a good sign though.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF does not have a strong storm for Sunday.

[Phil]

Yuck...We don't want to see that yet. That pattern in November can historically be a good sign though.

Yeah, no surprise that 8/10 analogs for the 00z GFS were Niño winters. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

 

Those two Niña years (1967/68, 1984/85) were powerhouses, though.

[Jesse]

Whatever happened to Blizzard?

 

Maybe his parents cut back on his computer time when school started.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, no surprise that 8/10 analogs for the 00z GFS were Niño winters. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

 

Those two Niña years (1967/68, 1984/85) were powerhouses, though.

 

67-68 was decent, not a regional great by any means. By recent standards I guess it was awesome for the I-5 corridor.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is really cold.  Unquestionably slower to break down the block.  At one point the block reaches the North Pole.  Nice to see the GFS and Euro both trend longer on that feature.  This could be an impressive cold snap (for this time of year) brewing.

[snow_wizard]

67-68 was decent, not a regional great by any means. By recent standards I guess it was awesome for the I-5 corridor.

 

84-85 was definitely awesome for many locations.

[Bryant]

Whatever happened to Blizzard?

 

Maybe his parents cut back on his computer time when school started.

No longer has an account

[MossMan]

00Z ECMWF does not have a strong storm for Sunday.

That's too bad since we will be staying out at Long Beach this weekend...would have been fun.

[TT-SEA]

That's too bad since we will be staying out at Long Beach this weekend...would have been fun.

 

 

Might still happen... environment is ripe for development.  

[Jesse]

Warm morning.

[Phil]

FWIW, assuming (soon to be) Mathhew tracks up/off the eastern seaboard, the top track analogs are Gloria (1985) and Hazel (1954). Both years have been showing up as potential analogs in the CPC superensemble. Interesting winters followed in the western US.

[snow_wizard]

The 6z GFS analog composite continues the GOA ridge through day 11.

 

[snow_wizard]

Warm morning.

 

Really strong NW to SE temperature gradient with that barely visible cold front.  Pretty likely almost everywhere will have evening lows today.  May not be that easy for the big cities though.

[TT-SEA]

Really strong NW to SE temperature gradient with that barely visible cold front.  Pretty likely almost everywhere will have evening lows today.  May not be that easy for the big cities though.

 

 

61 for a low at SEA?    Guaranteed a midnight low with clear skies by this afternoon and evening.

 

SEA will probably be right at normal for September after today.     Standing at -0.2 right now.  

[stuffradio]

Nice day.

[Phil]

The 6z GFS analog composite continues the GOA ridge through day 11.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_06gfs814.gif

Yeah, 06z run was much better. No flat ridge south of the Aleutians. I have an irrational fear of that pattern, given the last several years. Does nothing but promote a Hudson Bay vortex in the long run.

[GobBluth]

The 6z GFS analog composite continues the GOA ridge through day 11.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_06gfs814.gif

1985 analogs, early season cold snap?

[Phil]

Based on the orientation of the tri-polar wave series and polar anticyclone @ 126hrs, I think this GFS run might go zonal/+EPO in the extended range.