ENSO Discussion

[HighlandExperience]

We don't know much prior to 1847. No doubt 1847 through 1916 was incredibly snowy compared to now.

We can only assume it was much better than today.

[Deweydog]

We don't know much prior to 1847. No doubt 1847 through 1916 was incredibly snowy compared to now.

Truly a great period for lowland snow and racial pride!

[BLI snowman]

All ENSO regions out of Nina range now.

[Phil]

All ENSO regions out of Nina range now.

Yeah, also the 30 day SOI has been negative for almost a full month now. There's essentially no ENSO signal right now.

 

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

[snow_wizard]

All ENSO regions out of Nina range now.

Nino 3.4 will still end up below -0.5 for Nov. Already looking at our third tri monthly of -0.5 or below. 3.4 is back below -0.5 also.

[Phil]

Nino 3.4 will still end up below -0.5 for Nov. Already looking at our third tri monthly of -0.5 or below. 3.4 is back below -0.5 also.

A few fractions of a degree are meaningless here. There's not much of any ENSO signal right now, and this doesn't look to change.

[westcoastexpat]

A few fractions of a degree are meaningless here. There's not much of any ENSO signal right now, and this doesn't look to change.

 

Agreed. It's basically neutral at this point in every facet.

[BLI snowman]

A few fractions of a degree are meaningless here. There's not much of any ENSO signal right now, and this doesn't look to change.

 

Yeah, and if anything the Nina signal in the equatorial Pacific should have already peaked. Not much impetus for any cooling beyond what we've already seen up to this point. We may very well eek an "official" Nina out of this (five consecutive trimonthlies of -0.5c or lower in region 3.4) but we're going to literally have to see the bare minimum threshold to qualify as an event if we do.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, and if anything the Nina signal in the equatorial Pacific should have already peaked. Not much impetus for any cooling beyond what we've already seen up to this point. We may very well eek an "official" Nina out of this (five consecutive trimonthlies of -0.5c or lower in region 3.4) but we're going to literally have to see the bare minimum threshold to qualify as an event if we do.

 

Kind of similar to 2008-09. Many on here speak of it as a weak Nina, though most mets like Mark Nelsen do not consider that a Nina winter. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

 

Hard to say where this is going to go as the CFS is all over the place, but it has been trending downward over the past couple of weeks for next summer. Basically neutral now, with a good deal of members showing a dip back to Nina conditions. 

[Black Hole]

Nobody knows for sure, but I feel like the system is primed for a nina next year. Historically you usually don't have a multi year and at times strong nino event without going to la nina later. We didn't really get it this year, but next year could be different. 

[Phil]

Nobody knows for sure, but I feel like the system is primed for a nina next year. Historically you usually don't have a multi year and at times strong nino event without going to la nina later. We didn't really get it this year, but next year could be different.

My hunch is next year's ENSO will be more positive. We should be moving into a -QBO/cold equatorial tropopause regime, which typically enhances the equatorial Pacific convection overall.

 

This would favor a stronger intraseasonal/MJO component, and a reduction in the low frequency equatorial Pacific subsidence crucial to the La Niña base state.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My hunch is next year's ENSO will be more positive. We should be moving into a -QBO/cold equatorial tropopause regime, which typically enhances the equatorial Pacific convection overall.

 

This would favor a stronger intraseasonal/MJO component, and a reduction in the low frequency equatorial Pacific subsidence crucial to the La Niña base state.

 

Weren't we at some point going to have Ninas forever... Are you backing off that earlier prediction?

[Phil]

Weren't we at some point going to have Ninas forever... Are you backing off that earlier prediction?

I never said anything like that. I don't foresee another strong Niña until after the Niño response to solar minimum in 2019/20. So, 2020/21 would be my best guess for the next strong Niña.

 

Wildcard would be 2018/19..that's a year that could go either way w/ regards to ENSO, IMO. I think 2017/18 will be ENSO neutral.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I never said anything like that. I don't foresee another strong Niña until after the Niño response to solar minimum in 2019/20. So, 2020/21 would be my best guess for the next strong Niña.

 

Wildcard would be 2018/19..that's a year that could go either way w/ regards to ENSO, IMO. I think 2017/18 will be ENSO neutral.

 

I am cool with Neutral. Really anything from moderate Nina to weak Nino is good with me. 

[Front Ranger]

Weren't we at some point going to have Ninas forever... Are you backing off that earlier prediction?

 

He has changed his ENSO predictions somewhat over the past couple years. Nothing wrong with that.

[Phil]

He has changed his ENSO predictions somewhat over the past couple years. Nothing wrong with that.

I really haven't made any significant changes. I under-forecasted the strength of the Niño last winter, and over-forecasted the strength of the ongoing -ENSO, both failures resulting from the systematic corruption of the QBO.

[Front Ranger]

I really haven't made any significant changes. I under-forecasted the strength of the Niño last winter, and over-forecasted the strength of the ongoing -ENSO, both failures resulting from the systematic corruption of the QBO.

 

I'm 94% sure you were calling for a multi-year Nina 2016-18 a couple years ago.

[Jesse]

I'm 94% sure you were calling for a multi-year Nina 2016-18 a couple years ago.

I would even say less than a year ago. Maybe even over the last summer.

[Phil]

I'm 94% sure you were calling for a multi-year Nina 2016-18 a couple years ago.

I said multi-year Niña or -ENSO (which I think is still quite likely), and that was before the QBO failed to cycle, at which point I stated that 2017/18 was less likely to qualify as a Niña given more vigorous convection would be favored over the equatorial Pacific as the tropical tropopause cools.

[Phil]

I would even say less than a year ago. Maybe even over the last summer.

I'm still predicting a multi-year -ENSO. Probably won't verify as strong as I thought it would, but thats mostly a trivial difference.

 

If you can't read for context, that's not my problem, so please don't make it my problem.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Are we still going to be looking for some cooling. 

[Phil]

Are we still going to be looking for some cooling.

Yes. At least that's my take.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yes. At least that's my take.

 

I hope you are right. Not trying to give you a hard time, just curious as to your thoughts. 

[Phil]

I hope you are right. Not trying to give you a hard time, just curious as to your thoughts.

It's no problem. My prediction was/is for an overall cooling to begin in 2017, +/- 1yr, statistically speaking. In hindsight, it looks like 2016 will probably be the statistical start time, given the super niño induced warmth.

[snow_wizard]

The atmosphere is unquestionably becoming more Ninaish again. MJO currently in octant 2 / 3 and basically stalled, robust positive OLR anoms 5S to 5N / 160W to 160E, nice trade wind burst about the commence. Little doubt the SOI will react to this also.

[Geos]

Pretty good cold pool going now.

 

 

 

1+2 still running a bit above normal.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What are people's thoughts on this?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

[snow_wizard]

What are people's thoughts on this?

 

 

Looking less bullish on a rise to warm ENSO next year.  I would say a Nino is nearly out of the question for 2017-18.

[OKwx2k4]

If it qualifies as a true La Niña, it's going to be cutting it super close. The atmosphere has been pretty much all over the place with it so it's really hard to say it's much of anything but a cold neutral. Not making a call on the future beyond that. Heck, the professionals can't even get it right that far away. Lol

[westcoastexpat]

Looking less bullish on a rise to warm ENSO next year. I would say a Nino is nearly out of the question for 2017-18.

That's a pretty bullish statement.

[snow_wizard]

That's a pretty bullish statement.

 

History is strongly on my side.  We just came out of a two year super Nino.  No way what we're seeing now has made up for that.

[westcoastexpat]

History is strongly on my side.  We just came out of a two year super Nino.  No way what we're seeing now has made up for that.

 

I highly doubt a weak Nino, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a warm neutral year after this cold neutral year.

[Phil]

History is strongly on my side. We just came out of a two year super Nino. No way what we're seeing now has made up for that.

I like ENSO-neutral next winter, assuming the QBO progresses as expected. I think a Niña is less likely.

[Phil]

If next winter is a Niña, I don't think it'll be a good winter. Would almost certainly be a +EPO dominated Pacific hose-job, given the -QBO. A warmer ENSO/-QBO would actually favor stronger NPAC blocking.

[Jesse]

If next winter is a Niña, I don't think it'll be a good winter. Would almost certainly be a +EPO dominated Pacific hose-job, given the -QBO. A warmer ENSO/-QBO would actually favor stronger NPAC blocking.

This should give Jim a nice moral quandary. Well done!

[stuffradio]

Could be a true December 2008! It barely qualified as a weak Nina in 2008 also.

[snow_wizard]

This should give Jim a nice moral quandary. Well done!

 

I wouldn't mind warm neutral next winter, but I'm far from convinced it will happen.

[Jesse]

I wouldn't mind warm neutral next winter, but I'm far from convinced it will happen.

I think Phil's just trying to push your buttons.

[Phil]

I think Phil's just trying to push your buttons.

Nope. The Niña/-QBO combo is notorious for failing to establish NPAC blocking. These years are usually zonal/+EPO dominated failures, with a few exceptions confined to the heart of solar minimums.