Phil Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 I am kind of relying on Nina climo on this point. I could certainly imagine a winter where the NE and NW take turns and the NC is cold the entire time.Yeah, I also want to see the Hadley Cells retract/intensify equatorward. There's a chance the upcoming MJO event will attempt to assist in this process. How the hemispheric wavetrain evolves during/after this MJO event will be VERY telling as to where we're going this winter, in my opinion. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 Weird how we're having the opposite problems w/ seasonality. Both November and December have gone into the crapper here, while February and March are delivering 90% of our winter, basically the inverse of what you guys are dealing with. Have to wonder if this will reverse at some point.It actually makes a lot of sense. Does that pattern for you guys go back 30+ years, though? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 Make November great again. As much as people want to paint November as the thief in the night of all things wintry, we haven't seen anything more than a dusting in November in almost 13 years. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 It actually makes a lot of sense. Does that pattern for you guys go back 30+ years, though?It does, minus the oddball decade of the 1980s. December just doesn't produce cold like it used to, before the dustbowl era. I guess the same could be said about January. Meanwhile, February and March have been smashing records left and right. Some of the most ancient, presumed-untouchable records, both in the temperature and snowfall department, have fallen in recent years. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 Mark Nelsen pointed out that the last 5 Ninas haven't delivered much of anything snow wise at PDX. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 MNel does not consider 08-09' a Nina, though I know that has been debated on here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 MNel does not consider 08-09' a Nina, though I know that has been debated on here.Uh, 08/09 was most definitely a Niña. In fact, I'd argue it was easily more of a Niña than this year. More coherent Niña convective cell, globally integrated -AAM bias was solid as well. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 As much as people want to paint November as the thief in the night of all things wintry, we haven't seen anything more than a dusting in November in almost 13 years. To the uneducated layman it would almost seem as if our climate has been warming in all months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 Weird how we're having the opposite problems w/ seasonality. Both November and December have gone into the crapper here, while February and March are delivering 90% of our winter, basically the inverse of what you guys are dealing with. Have to wonder if this will reverse at some point. Yeah, that's interesting. I'm sure the two trends are related as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 To the uneducated layman it would almost seem as if our climate has been warming in all months. We could see a record warm November and a foot of snow on the 30th... 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 Talk about a shake-up. Very nice! If this doesn't do the trick in the NPAC, I'm not sure what will. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/vp850.anom.30.5S-5N.gif 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 As much as people want to paint November as the thief in the night of all things wintry, we haven't seen anything more than a dusting in November in almost 13 years.Regionally, November has definitely outperformed historical climo over the past 30 years, though. PDX definitely matters, though!! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 Regionally, November has definitely outperformed historical climo over the past 30 years, though. PDX definitely matters, though!! Touchy! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 We could see a record warm November and a foot of snow on the 30th...Snow!!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 We could see a record warm November and a foot of snow on the 30th... A very good point... memorable events are really all that matters. Can't play in cool anomalies. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 A very good point... memorable events are really all that matters. Can't play in cool anomalies. You can take brisk, highly enjoyable walks in them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 00z GFS in 7 minutes! From Michael VentriceTake a look at the 1-10vs 1-15d snowfall forecasts from the ECMWF Ensembles...Bit of an increase there in the 11-15d period c.f. to 1-10d.-----------------------------A bit more snow..... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 Might go buy a snowblower... that will completely jinx snow at my house this year. Guaranteed to not snow if I spend money on it now.I bought one in January 2011. Sorry everyone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 I bought one in January 2011. Sorry everyone.Crap!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 You can take brisk, highly enjoyable walks in them. Today was plenty nice for a walk as well. Its not like its going to be too warm for outdoor activities the next few months. Too wet will happen often... too warm will not. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 Regionally, November has definitely outperformed historical climo over the past 30 years, though. PDX definitely matters, though!! Has it, though? An argument can be made that the 1955-85 stretch was more impressive than, or at least equivalent to, 1985-2015 with regards to November "performance." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 Weird how we're having the opposite problems w/ seasonality. Both November and December have gone into the crapper here, while February and March are delivering 90% of our winter, basically the inverse of what you guys are dealing with. Have to wonder if this will reverse at some point. Well February is still a solid winter month here in the cascades. It has no problem delivering average amounts of snowfall, at least when there's no droughts. But yeah March I think was a bigger month for snow/cold back in the 'ol hay day. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 Make November great again.November you can believe in! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 November you can believe in!This November is going to be huge, absolutely huge and incredible. Trust me. Believe me. Just incredible. Incredibly huge. I know more about November than the Meteorologists and Climatologists. Believe me. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 I bought one in January 2011. Sorry everyone.YVR bought a fleet in 2010, most likely due to 2008. That's what did it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tundra Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 00z GFS in 7 minutes! From Michael VentriceTake a look at the 1-10vs 1-15d snowfall forecasts from the ECMWF Ensembles...Bit of an increase there in the 11-15d period c.f. to 1-10d.-----------------------------A bit more snow..... I see snow at my location! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 This November is going to be huge, absolutely huge and incredible. Trust me. Believe me. Just incredible. Incredibly huge. I know more about November than the Meteorologists and Climatologists. Believe me.Yes November can! On another note, I'm pretty sure I've seen evidence stating not all months have in fact been warming, at least up here. If I can find it, I will post it. There just seems to be so many layman these days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 Has it, though? An argument can be made that the 1955-85 stretch was more impressive than, or at least equivalent to, 1985-2015 with regards to November "performance."Well, I'm looking at 1985-2015 compared to the previous 75+ years. 1985, 1993, 1996, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2010. Regardless, mother nature doesn't follow a calendar, and we can definitively say that early season Nov/Dec events have increased. Especially pre-Dec 15. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 Has it, though? An argument can be made that the 1955-85 stretch was more impressive than, or at least equivalent to, 1985-2015 with regards to November "performance."I would say that 1955-1985 wins for folks south of Seattle. From Seattle north, I would take the latter period. I would agree that 1985-2015 dwarfs many other 30 year periods for November winter weather, dating back to 1850. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 Well, I'm looking at 1985-2015 compared to the previous 75+ years. 1985, 1993, 1996, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2010. Regardless, mother nature doesn't follow a calendar, and we can definitively say that early season Nov/Dec events have increased. Especially pre-Dec 15. That's kind of a funky way of looking at it. If you were to look at 30 year periods, then 1895-1925, 1955-85, and 1985-2015 are all pretty similar with regards to November performance. The only 30 year stretch that you could definitively say did not outperform 1985-2015 is 1925-55. That era was remarkable for its concentration of cold waves in DJF (and mostly JF), to the exclusion of November and March (compared to other multi-decadal stretches). In other words, I don't think it can be claimed that 1985-2015 definitively outperformed "historical" norms with regards to November performance. Its an exercise in subjectivity at best, IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 Hmmmm..........http://i.imgur.com/poVcPgR.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 Well, I'm looking at 1985-2015 compared to the previous 75+ years. 1985, 1993, 1996, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2010. Regardless, mother nature doesn't follow a calendar, and we can definitively say that early season Nov/Dec events have increased. Especially pre-Dec 15. I'm not so sure. For example, the 1919-64 stretch would warrant a closer look if we're talking about pre-December 15 cold waves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 I would say that 1955-1985 wins for folks south of Seattle. From Seattle north, I would take the latter period. I would agree that 1985-2015 dwarfs many other 30 year periods for November winter weather, dating back to 1850. But are you really saying anything? If we're to look at individual, successive 30 year periods counting backward from 2015, then 1895-1925 and 1955-85 are pretty similar to 1985-2015 with regard to November performance. That's 90 out of 165 years (55% of all years) since 1850. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 That's kind of a funky way of looking at it. If you were to look at 30 year periods, then 1895-1925, 1955-85, and 1985-2015 are all pretty similar with regards to November performance. The only 30 year stretch that you could definitively say did not outperform 1985-2015 is 1925-55. That era was remarkable for its concentration of cold waves in DJF (and mostly JF), to the exclusion of November and March (compared to other multi-decadal stretches). In other words, I don't think it can be claimed that 1985-2015 definitively outperformed "historical" norms with regards to November performance. Its an exercise in subjectivity at best, IMO.As I said, calendar months aside, we can definitely say early season events have outperformed compared to climo. The fact that we saw Dec 2008, Dec 2009, Nov 2010, and Dec 2013 all within 6 years is pretty remarkable. Decent little event in Nov 2014 also in there. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 Has it, though? An argument can be made that the 1955-85 stretch was more impressive than, or at least equivalent to, 1985-2015 with regards to November "performance." This is certainly a case where Western WA north of Olympia at least has kicked NW Oregon's arse. I have personally had significant snowfall IMBY in the following Novembers. 1985 1993 1996 2006 2010 2014 5 of those had significant intrusions of Arctic air. 1996 didn't get quite as cold, but had over 6 inches of snow. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 As I said, calendar months aside, we can definitely say early season events have outperformed compared to climo. And as I said, I disagree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 That's kind of a funky way of looking at it. If you were to look at 30 year periods, then 1895-1925, 1955-85, and 1985-2015 are all pretty similar with regards to November performance. The only 30 year stretch that you could definitively say did not outperform 1985-2015 is 1925-55. That era was remarkable for its concentration of cold waves in DJF (and mostly JF), to the exclusion of November and March (compared to other multi-decadal stretches). In other words, I don't think it can be claimed that 1985-2015 definitively outperformed "historical" norms with regards to November performance. Its an exercise in subjectivity at best, IMO. In this area 1985-2015 unquestionably outperformed any other 30 year period on record in the month of November. Sounds like that hasn't been as true in Oregon. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 In this area 1985-2015 unquestionably outperformed any other 30 year period on record in the month of November. Sounds like that hasn't been as true in Oregon. That's the thing. It hasn't. I'm approaching this subject from a strictly regional perspective, including both OR and WA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 And as I said, I disagree. That's literally all you do with me. Show me a 30 year period where Nov/Dec outperformed 1985-2015. Or 40 years compared to Nov/Dec 1975-2015. No reason to deny the trend. January has gone to , Feb/Mar have been mediocre, and Nov/Dec have been above normal. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 7, 2016 Report Share Posted November 7, 2016 That's the thing. It hasn't. I'm approaching this subject from a strictly regional perspective, including both OR and WA.But for some reason you were only looking at Portland when discussing March earlier? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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