November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Yup! Have always lived in Ferndale or Bellingham so it will be interesting to compare locations this year

Hopefully it will be a great one! Us Western Washingtonians are way overdue.

[snow_wizard]

Several pieces of good news this morning.

 

1. The ECMWF ensemble has the PNA down to zero by day 10.

2. ECMWF ensemble mean shows above normal heights over the Eastern Aleutians / GOA during the 10 to 15 day period.

3. Same with ECMWF ensemble control model

4. GFS and ECMWF agree on a significant MJO wave emerging soon which should be in a good position for us by late Nov / early Dec.

 

Right now this is all playing out how I wanted.

[snow_wizard]

I'll sign onto 1921-22. That was the knickerbocker winter.

 

The what?

 

It is interesting there are a few parallels to 1921 going on.  The very dry October in SE AK, the November torch (at least here), cold neutral ENSO, etc.

 

EDIT:  I just looked up what that was.  Pretty remarkable it was cold here at the time that storm hit the East Coast.  A great winter for all it appears.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z operational GFS wasn't great, but the ensemble mean is the chilliest yet late in the month with 850s dropping to -1 to -2 on the mean.  A very gradual cooling through the period beginning the middle of next week or so.

[snow_wizard]

I think Bastardi has lost all of his marbles now. Using the Brazilian model of all things! He admits he is out on a limb regarding this winter.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF basically shows 60 or warmer from tomorrow through Thursday in Seattle.  And still around 60 on Friday.    Getting close to 70 on Tuesday.  

 

Only rain is a quick little front on Tuesday night and it shows sunshine again on Wednesday.  

[Timmy Supercell]

November could get boring, real quick. 

 

Should get easier this week.      Just went through the Canadian and GFS...  both show almost completely dry weather during the daytime hours through Friday (after today of course).

 

Nooooo.... it needs to rain more....

 

I'll sign onto 1921-22. That was the knickerbocker winter.

 

I had to google that one.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the table could be set for some historic warmth this coming week. It all comes down to keeping the atmosphere mixed of course.

[Phil]

The what?

 

It is interesting there are a few parallels to 1921 going on. The very dry October in SE AK, the November torch (at least here), cold neutral ENSO, etc.

 

EDIT: I just looked up what that was. Pretty remarkable it was cold here at the time that storm hit the East Coast. A great winter for all it appears.

Those are my favorite kind of winters. Arctic air sprawling over the country from coast to coast, constructively interfering EPO/NAO blocks, and a nice storm train in the middle. Haven't seen a winter like that since 1984/85, 1983/84, 1978/79, etc.

[OKwx2k4]

I'll take an order of 1983-84 mixed with 1978-79 for the win please.

[snow_wizard]

Apparently the Afghanistan model says no snow for the NE this winter.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z ECMWF once again wipes out all of the low pressure over the GOA and eastern Aleutians by day 10. A very good sign.

[westcoastexpat]

The answer is obvious. Big stuff early isn't nearly as impressive as big stuff in the heart of the winter. Recent history tells us if it hits hard early you can forget about January. If we ease into cooler weather and gradually work toward something big we get a lot of warning shot type events before the really big stuff. Early quickies are getting old. Obviously a huge exception like 1896, 1955, or 1985 would always be welcome.

But some people here really prefer snowstorms as opposed to dry cold. We can get snowstorms whether it's on the periphery or heart of winter.

[snow_wizard]

But some people here really prefer snowstorms as opposed to dry cold. We can get snowstorms whether it's on the periphery or heart of winter.

Historically speaking January / early Feb cold waves are more likely to bring snow, larger amounts of snow, and longer lasting periods with snow on the ground. Amazingly I once did some digging and found out Feb 2 is the most likely day of the year to have snow on the ground. At least for the Seattle area. You sure wouldn't know it by looking at recent years.

 

Even looking at cold waves from this century. In December you had 2009 and 2013...both of which had little snow for good part of the Western lowlands. The only good January cold waves there have been are 2004, 2007, and 2012 all of which had snow. Going back a bit further you had 1996, 1993, 1982, 1980 all of which had significant snowfall for most places.

[Tundra]

Meteorologist Brett Anderson's interpretation of the latest EURO forecast model.

 

"The model certainly has a warm look for the rest of November across the western two-thirds of the country as milder, Pacific air continues to infiltrate the region. One bit of news, it does look like there will be a reprieve from the stormy pattern across western BC during the week of Nov. 14-20.

 

It is a little more tricky in the East as there will likely be some resistance with the northwesterly flow aloft. I believe the model is still a little too warm across southeast Canada and the eastern U.S., but with a lack of cross-polar flow and shrinking snow cover over northwest Canada and the northern Prairies the air masses that do come into the East from the northwest will be hard pressed to be all that cold.

 

Overall, November could end up being another top five warmest on record from the Prairies to the Yukon/Northwest Territories."

 

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/miscellaneous/2016/590x363_11041303_nov4a.png

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/miscellaneous/2016/590x363_11041304_nov4b.png

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/miscellaneous/2016/590x363_11041305_nov4c.png

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/weekly-long-range-update-27/61175954

[IbrChris]

Meteorologist Brett Anderson's interpretation of the latest EURO forecast model.

 

"The model certainly has a warm look for the rest of November across the western two-thirds of the country as milder, Pacific air continues to infiltrate the region. One bit of news, it does look like there will be a reprieve from the stormy pattern across western BC during the week of Nov. 14-20.

 

It is a little more tricky in the East as there will likely be some resistance with the northwesterly flow aloft. I believe the model is still a little too warm across southeast Canada and the eastern U.S., but with a lack of cross-polar flow and shrinking snow cover over northwest Canada and the northern Prairies the air masses that do come into the East from the northwest will be hard pressed to be all that cold.

 

Overall, November could end up being another top five warmest on record from the Prairies to the Yukon/Northwest Territories."

 

Yeah I think this is the most likely scenario...pretty warm Nov across most of interior North America. If we can get a ridge to pop in the NE Pacific perhaps a weak cold shot late month for parts of the west, but the odds don't seem too high for that to occur at this point.

 

Also looks like most local resorts probably won't open until at least Thanksgiving, potentially later.

[Gradient Keeper]

I'll make a small wager that after the 10-14 day period things will look markedly different.

[stuffradio]

I think Bastardi has lost all of his marbles now. Using the Brazilian model of all things! He admits he is out on a limb regarding this winter.

 

You must be new to Bastardi, he uses the Brazilian every year. There's a running joke on this other forum that someone posts a picture of a Brazilian sports model whenever he talks about it.

[snow_wizard]

I'll make a small wager that after the 10-14 day period things will look markedly different.

The models are already showing improvement so I'm in agreement.

[stuffradio]

But some people here really prefer snowstorms as opposed to dry cold. We can get snowstorms whether it's on the periphery or heart of winter.

Historically, most of our snow comes after a dry shot of cold air, and we get an overrunning event happening as we warm up.

[Deweydog]

I'll make a small wager that after the 10-14 day period things will look markedly different.

I bet it gets darker considerably earlier at that point.

[Gradient Keeper]

I bet it gets darker considerably earlier at that point.

It had better! Slightly higher odds on your wager than mine.

[snow_wizard]

You must be new to Bastardi, he uses the Brazilian every year. There's a running joke on this other forum that someone posts a picture of a Brazilian sports model whenever he talks about it.

I'll bet he wouldn't if it showed a NE torch.

[Gradient Keeper]

 

Time Change and Model Times reminder

In case you forgot, Sunday morning at 2 AM Daylight Savings Time ends and Standard Time begins. Turn your clock back 1 hour.

 

Also, for weather geeks this means Computer Model runs come in 1 hour sooner! Yep! No more waiting until midnight for those exciting EURO runs to finish! I'll post the times below.

 

**When Model Runs initialize/begin**

6z NAM: Now 12:45 AM, Sunday

12z NAM: Now 6:45 AM, Sunday

18z NAM: Now 12:45 PM, Sunday

00z NAM: Now 6:45 PM, Sunday

 

6z GFS: Now 2:30 AM, Sunday

12z GFS: Now 8:30 AM, Sunday

18z GFS: Now 2:30 PM, Sunday

00z GFS: Now 8:30 PM, Sunday

 

12z ECMWF: Now 10:45 AM, Sunday

00z ECMWF: Now 10:45 PM, Sunday

 

12z CMC/GEM: Now 9:30 AM, Sunday

00z CMC/GEM: Now 9:30 PM, Sunday

 

6z GFS Ensembles: Now 5:00 AM, Sunday

12z GFS Ensembles: Now 11:00 AM, Sunday

18z GFS Ensembles: Now 5:00 PM, Sunday

00z GFS Ensembles: Now 11:00 PM, Sunday

 

Reminder! 12 hours 3 minutes until we turn back the clocks at 2 AM! (Or before you go to bed)

[Tundra]

Yeah I think this is the most likely scenario...pretty warm Nov across most of interior North America. If we can get a ridge to pop in the NE Pacific perhaps a weak cold shot late month for parts of the west, but the odds don't seem too high for that to occur at this point.

 

Also looks like most local resorts probably won't open until at least Thanksgiving, potentially later.

 

Yeah I think so too. I'm thinking January will be the month now that the lower 48 including the PNW gets a significant Arctic intrusion. If timing speeds up a bit then possibly as early as mid to late December. IMHO January has the potentially to be one of the coldest and snowiest ever in decades across the PNW.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS in 12 minutes !

[Tundra]

Reminder! 12 hours 3 minutes until we turn back the clocks at 2 AM! (Or before you go to bed)

 

Very important since now we don't have to wait until midnight for the EURO to finish running!

[Gradient Keeper]

Very important since now we don't have to wait until midnight for the EURO to finish running!

Exactly. It's the most wonderful time of the yearrrrrrr

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sure wish the radar was working. 

[stuffradio]

I'm at 1.8 inches of rain and counting. Wouldn't be surprised to reach 2.5 inches by 5PM.

[Weather101]

Hate this rain. Need a break from it.

[MossMan]

Not only is it raining, it's really raining!! And dark!

[Bryant]

Not only is it raining, it's really raining!! And dark!

 

Winter is coming!

[MossMan]

Winter is coming!

Sure hoping tomorrow will be dry enough to at least pick up some leaves!

[Phil]

Winter is coming!

About time. Frankly I just want to see Arctic air enter the country somewhere..I don't care if I blowtorch. Anything but this horrific coast to coast Pacific hose job.

 

I definitely like what I'm seeing out of the tropics and stratosphere, FWIW. We're finally losing the stagnant forcing that's been sitting at 120E (which has been responsible for the NPAC Low/+PNA given antecedent broad Hadley Cell states in both the NPAC and NATL, contrary to what you'd think), as the intraseasonal forcings (MJO et al) take over.

[Phil]

The one thing that's bothering me, however, is the continued propensity for intense, super-expanded Hadley Cells even as the MJO consolidates convective integral equatorward. Obviously, a +QBO/Niña broadens the Hadley Cells, but should also reduce their intensity. We have yet to observe a renormalization of the typical size/intensity ratio, let alone a normal Walker/Hadley intensity ratio.

 

Hard to imagine this regime can continue much longer before the rubber band snaps. Eventually this becomes unsustainable, and several modeling/paleo studies suggest an abrupt snap back is possible to probable.

[Front Ranger]

The answer is obvious.  Big stuff early isn't nearly as impressive as big stuff in the heart of the winter.  Recent history tells us if it hits hard early you can forget about January.  If we ease into cooler weather and gradually work toward something big we get a lot of warning shot type events before the really big stuff.  Early quickies are getting old.  Obviously a huge exception like 1896, 1955, or 1985 would always be welcome.

 

I hear what you're saying, but if Dec 2013 or Dec 2009 had produced widespread snowfall, obviously they would have been much more memorable events and not so "old". Neither event was especially quick, either.

[Tundra]

The newest edition of the 12z CFS still showing the possibility of a PNW Arctic Blast during the first week of December. Maybe we can have an early December 2013 repeat.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016110512/708/500h_anom.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016110512/720/850th_nb.na.png

[Bham_Guy]

Pretty good downpour at BLI right now

[Front Ranger]

Just looking at a winter like 1921-22 shows what potential this climate really has.  14 inches of snow in November (in spite of the month being quite warm overall), followed by a cold / snowy January, and extreme lows of 16 in December, 6 in January, and 13 in February!  That's a winter that is hardly even talked about...

 

Stats are for Landsburg.

 

The event in November was just barely cold enough for snow many places, with a lot of places south of Seattle having highs in the 40s, while places to the north were much colder. Clearbrook had a high of just 23 on 11/21.

 

The December cold snap was much longer and more impressive north of Seattle. Everett had 11 straight days with highs of 37 or colder, and Clearbrook was below 38 from the 16th to the end of the month. They also had a 16/9 day on 12/19. Not much snow most places, though. 

 

The January event definitely brought some impressive lows, even though highs weren't super cold.

 

Kent: 0

Everett: 9

Clearbrook: 8

Centralia: 3

 

There were two cold spells in February, though the second mainly just affected places near Fraser outflow. Clearbrook had 4 straight days in the 20s from 2/10 - 2/14.

 

Overall, a winter definitely dominated by areas further north, tons of Fraser outflow. Clearbrook managed 19 days below freezing that winter, and scores more in the mid 30s. One of the most consistently cold DJF on record up there, along with 1948-49.