November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

70 on the truck thermometer!

 

Screenshot?

[Gradient Keeper]

70 here! No screenshot yet.

 

12z runs were weaker with the low bottoming it out somewhere around 950mb. Hmmm....

12z runs were also ugly if you like active, fun, or interesting weather. Not happening for at least the next 7-10 days.

[Jesse]

67 at PDX is pretty crazy for 11/4.

[Phil]

12z Euro gives the eastern seaboard a chilly shot of air. At least it's a shake up.

The models have been dangling that week two carrot for an eternity now. I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

67 at PDX is pretty crazy for 11/4.

Do you realize what this means?

 

Yeah, me neither.

 

Hmmm, 6+7 = 13. There are not 13 months in a year.

Today is 11/4. 11 + 4 = 15. 15 -13 = 2.

The 2nd month of the year is February.

That's all I got. If you were expecting something more clever, be prepared for disappointment. Nope.

[catnip]

Do you realize what this means?

 

Yeah, me neither.

 

Hmmm, 6+7 = 13. There are not 13 months in a year.

Today is 11/4. 11 + 4 = 15. 15 -13 = 2.

The 2nd month of the year is February.

That's all I got. If you were expecting something more clever, be prepared for disappointment. Nope.

 

So what you are saying is we should expect a massive blast on Feb 13?

 

[Phil]

Do you realize what this means?

 

Yeah, me neither.

 

Hmmm, 6+7 = 13. There are not 13 months in a year.

Today is 11/4. 11 + 4 = 15. 15 -13 = 2.

The 2nd month of the year is February.

That's all I got.

Lol. Since 13 - 1 = 12 months, shouldn't it be 15 - 1 = 14 weeks or 98 days? So, 98 days after January 1st = April 8th.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

73 here... 73/44 is more like early September or June here at 1600'. 

[Weather101]

73 here... 73/44 is more like early September or June here at 1600'.

Screenshot !

[Gradient Keeper]

So what you are saying is we should expect a massive blast on Feb 13?

 

You never know. Just in time to ruin Valentine's Day! Haha

 

Lol. Since 13 - 1 = 12 months, shouldn't it be 15 - 1 = 14 weeks or 98 days? So, 98 days after January 1st = April 8th.

 

Hmmm, you could go that route. There many ways we can decipher the deciphered, or deciphering the indecipherable. What all this really means is, good lord we need some weather excitement if I or others are resorting to this nonsense. Yeah.

[Phil]

You never know. Just in time to ruin Valentine's Day! Haha

 

Hmmm, you could go that route. There many ways we can decipher the deciphered.

What all this really means is, good lord we need some weather excitement if I or others are resorting to this nonsense. Yeah.

Even better, 11 / 4 = 2.75, - 1 = 1.75 months after 1/1.

 

So, either February 21st, or January 23rd depending on what 1/1 is supposed to represent. Boom, that's my new winter forecast. Arctic blasts on 1/23 and/or 2/21.

[Gradient Keeper]

70 @ PDX! Wow

[Deweydog]

70 @ PDX! Wow

Garbage obs.

[wx_statman]

Its interesting to note that PDX has never hit 70 this late in the season on an East wind. Latest two occurrences are 10/31/1954 and 11/1/1969. 

 

The 70 degree "readings" at PDX over the past hour are probably C to F conversion discrepancies. I wouldn't be surprised if the real high comes in at 69. 

[TT-SEA]

It was 70+ down in North Bend... not sure if that has happened this late with an east wind up here.     Probably not if has not happened in Portland.      Had to get out and enjoy it with my daughter.

 

[Bryant]

Decent agreement about the general pattern between the newest editions of the 12z GFS and EURO at day 10.

 

 

I'm not liking what the newest edition of the 12z GFS shows in the long range. It wants to return us to a Split Flow/Cut-Off Low type pattern.

 

No surprise given the westward shift of the NPAC low

[Phil]

All modeling is now on board with the activation of the MJO/intraseasonal forcing component over the background state.

 

Wave initiates in the MT/WPAC, then propagates into the EPAC/WHEM, which would destructively interfere with the background state for awhile. This wave is modeled to die upon propagation into the IO, however it remains to be seen if this occurs. If it does occur, it'd be a profound statement as to the resilience of the -IO regime, which has been driving the pattern since July.

 

If forcing does enter the IO, in a coherent manner, that would suggest the background state is indeed unstable, and would represent a systematic shift that would result in a significant pattern change over the Pacific.

[Canadian guy]

Amazing how much cooler it has been up here today.  Only 50 for a high and been in the 40's for most of the day.

[wx_statman]

It was 70+ down in North Bend... not sure if that has happened this late with an east wind up here.     Probably not if has not happened in Portland.      Had to get out and enjoy it with my daughter.

 

 

The foothills have been 70+ this late, due to downsloping. PDX is different because our East winds take on a more low-level character (drawing cooler surface air in from the gorge, even if its only slightly cooler) starting right around Halloween. That's obviously a generalization but it holds true in most years. November 2010 was a great example. 

[Phil]

Its interesting to note that PDX has never hit 70 this late in the season on an East wind. Latest two occurrences are 10/31/1954 and 11/1/1969.

 

The 70 degree "readings" at PDX over the past hour are probably C to F conversion discrepancies. I wouldn't be surprised if the real high comes in at 69.

That 1954 analog keeps coming up everywhere. Headscratcher.

[BLI snowman]

Amazing how much cooler it has been up here today.  Only 50 for a high and been in the 40's for most of the day.

 

South wind just hit BLI, went from 55 to 67.

[Jesse]

The 70 degree "readings" at PDX over the past hour are probably C to F conversion discrepancies. I wouldn't be surprised if the real high comes in at 69.

Good call.

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=pqr&sid=PDX&pil=CLI

 

Still an incredibly warm day for this late.

[Jesse]

The foothills have been 70+ this late, due to downsloping. PDX is different because our East winds take on a more low-level character (drawing cooler surface air in from the gorge, even if its only slightly cooler) starting right around Halloween. That's obviously a generalization but it holds true in most years. November 2010 was a great example.

The Cascade foothills have definitely seen some amazing off-season warmth thanks to downsloping. Haven't there been highs in the 70s even in December in spots? I remember you doing a post about that a while back.

[Deweydog]

The Cascade foothills have definitely seen some amazing off-season warmth thanks to downsloping. Haven't there been highs in the 70s even in December in spots? I remember you doing a post about that a while back.

I think there were 70's at some favored elevated spots in January 2009 maybe?

[Phil]

Huge changes in the d11-15 12z EPS. Is this for real, arising via that developing MJO? Or just another head-fake?

 

Would be in line with my original ideas for the second half of November, however, this is going to be a huge fight either way, much more so than I was thinking.

[wx_statman]

Good call.

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=pqr&sid=PDX&pil=CLI

 

Still an incredibly warm day for this late.

 

Definitely. Its rare enough to hit 69 this late in the year, especially on an East wind. 

[wx_statman]

The Cascade foothills have definitely seen some amazing off-season warmth thanks to downsloping. Haven't there been highs in the 70s even in December in spots? I remember you doing a post about that a while back.

 

Yeah, 70's are possible under a strong ridge at any point during the winter in locations that can escape the effect of low level cold. Whether by means of elevation (like Horse Creek RAWS or Laurel Mountain) or via downsloping in favored locations. 

[Jesse]

Yeah, 70's are possible under a strong ridge at any point during the winter in locations that can escape the effect of low level cold. Whether by means of elevation (like Horse Creek RAWS or Laurel Mountain) or via downsloping in favored locations.

I meant more in terms of classic downsloping spots. Places at relatively low elevations that benefit from their proximity to high mountains directly to the east. Marblemount, Darrington Packwood and Estacada come to mind.

[BLI snowman]

The Cascade foothills have definitely seen some amazing off-season warmth thanks to downsloping. Haven't there been highs in the 70s even in December in spots? I remember you doing a post about that a while back.

 

Estacada has hit 68 in December before, I'm not aware of any 70+ readings in December although it has happened a few times in January thanks to downsloping.

[wx_statman]

I think there were 70's at some favored elevated spots in January 2009 maybe?

 

Horse Creek RAWS (3,400') reaches well into the 70's fairly routinely under strong ridges. They hit 77 on 1/16/2009 but also 77 on 1/17/2014 and 76 on 1/25/2015, for example. 

 

Granted, all three examples were the result of fairly historic January ridges for the West Coast. 

[wx_statman]

I meant more in terms of classic downsloping spots. Places at relatively low elevations that benefit from their proximity to high mountains directly to the east. Marblemount, Darrington Packwood and Estacada come to mind.

 

I see. I'm not aware of any 70 degree readings at those locations in the "heart" of winter, between about 12/15 and 1/15.

 

McMinnville hit 72 on 12/28/1917 during a historically mild SW'erly flow pattern, and there may have been downsloping off the Coast Range to help make that happen. Similar to Sequim hitting 68 on 1/19/2005 with likely downslope assistance from the Olympics. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Very warm wind has kicked up here in Bellingham. I've been outside most of the afternoon, and felt a huge difference in the wind.

 

Looks like the airport went from 55 at 3:25pm to 67 at 3:53pm before dropping back and holding steady at 66

 

My home weather station is showing a similar jump.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem has a recorded high of 72 I believe in December 1929, but looking at other valley sites that recording is dubious. 

[wx_statman]

Looks like Kosmos, WA hit 70 on 1/15/1965 in a downsloping pattern. East winds @ PDX that afternoon:

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPDX/1965/1/15/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Portland+International&req_state=WA&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=98661&reqdb.magic=7&reqdb.wmo=99999

 

Kosmos hit 83 in November 1949 for the WA state monthly record. The townsite was flooded by the construction of Mossyrock Dam in the 1960's, and the town was moved and renamed Glenoma. This location hit 99 in October 1987, establishing the WA state record for that month. 

[Jesse]

Looks like Kosmos, WA hit 70 on 1/15/1965 in a downsloping pattern. East winds @ PDX that afternoon:

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPDX/1965/1/15/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Portland+International&req_state=WA&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=98661&reqdb.magic=7&reqdb.wmo=99999

 

Kosmos hit 83 in November 1949 for the WA state monthly record. The townsite was flooded by the construction of Mossyrock Dam in the 1960's, and the town was moved and renamed Glenoma. This location hit 99 in October 1987, establishing the WA state record for that month.

Good find! Kosmos was one of the places I was thinking of.

 

Apparently during low water years you can see parts of the old townsite rising out of Riffe Lake. Kind of cool.

[BLI snowman]

I see. I'm not aware of any 70 degree readings at those locations in the "heart" of winter, between about 12/15 and 1/15.

 

McMinnville hit 72 on 12/28/1917 during a historically mild SW'erly flow pattern, and there may have been downsloping off the Coast Range to help make that happen. Similar to Sequim hitting 68 on 1/19/2005 with likely downslope assistance from the Olympics. 

 

McMinnville had a highly questionable sensor in that era, though. That was undoubtedly a historically warm pattern in December 1917 but I'm inclined to be pretty skeptical of that number. Corvallis hit 66, Salem hit 62, and Forest Grove topped out at 60 that day. All more believable.

[Jesse]

Ensembles are trending a bit cooler in the long range now.

 

A mid-month pattern change would be nice.

[wx_statman]

McMinnville had a highly questionable sensor in that era, though. That was undoubtedly a historically warm pattern in December 1917 but I'm inclined to be pretty skeptical of that number. Corvallis hit 66, Salem hit 62, and Forest Grove topped out at 60 that day. All more believable.

 

I agree. Its something I neglected to mention. My thinking is that with the low sun angle on 12/28, over-exposure would be minimal. Having said that, I definitely wouldn't include any McMinnville maximum readings from that era in a formal study. 

[BLI snowman]

I agree. Its something I neglected to mention. My thinking is that with the low sun angle on 12/28, over-exposure would be minimal. Having said that, I definitely wouldn't include any McMinnville maximum readings from that era in a formal study. 

 

Or minimums. The 14 on 3/31/1920 and 3 on 4/9/1925 stand out a bit.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z ensemble mean shows 850s dropping to zero by the 20th.