November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

This seems mildly interesting

00z GFS Ensembles

500mb Height Anomaly

HR 120-384

Warm anomaly rapidly shifts west to Alaska/Arctic. Not ideal by any means, but perhaps a step in the right direction as we head towards late November.

Animated Gif -> http://imgur.com/CVFyUU7

 

EDIT: For what it's worth, the crummy 00z CFS shows the EXACT same pattern progression. I'm not sure we should dismiss this and ignore it.

 

Edit: 00z CMC Ensembles similar also. 00z ECMWF Ensembles through day 10 appear to be moving towards a similar solution of possible retrogression. We'll have to see what models/ensembles show in the coming days.

[westcoastexpat]

00Z CFS again advertising a complete pattern change toward the end of the month with a 10+ day arctic outbreak bleeding into December 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00Z CFS again advertising a complete pattern change toward the end of the month with a 10+ day arctic outbreak bleeding into December 

Yup, I saw that too. It tries to tease us as the pattern begins to setup in the "believable" range before day 16. It's honestly close to giving the PNW 2-3 weeks of arctic air non-stop.

[westcoastexpat]

Yup, I saw that too. It tries to tease us as the pattern begins to setup in the "believable" range before day 16. It's honestly close to giving the PNW 2-3 weeks of arctic air non-stop.

 

I mean, it's the CFS, so I'm just having some fun, but I do believe that end of the month into December is an opportunity for our first major arctic blast. It kind of goes against what I want, which would be the first major blast hitting around mid December in order to ensure a wintery Christmas, but it's just not in my nature to wishcast. Anyway, I will never turn down a blast of winter. I'm totally okay with a front loaded winter.

[Gradient Keeper]

I mean, it's the CFS, so I'm just having some fun, but I do believe that end of the month into December is an opportunity for our first major arctic blast. It kind of goes against what I want, which would be the first major blast hitting around mid December in order to ensure a wintery Christmas, but it's just not in my nature to wishcast. Anyway, I will never turn down a blast of winter. I'm totally okay with a front loaded winter.

Yeah, it's fun to look at, but no one should run to Vegas to place bets. BUT ya never know!

[TT-SEA]

Inversion in places... and a warm east wind in other places in King County.

 

Most stations in the lows 60s at 6 a.m. out here.    60 at my house.

 

But 42 at SEA where the east wind has not surfaced and it looks foggy in Issaquah.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Tracking the Gulf of Alaska mega-low

What will become an absolutely massive storm somewhere around 927-935mb over the Gulf of Alaska sometime on Tuesday is actually currently around 985mb over the southern Sea of Okhotsk just to the southwest of Kamchatka. Models show it will meander northeast and weaken a bit at first, but then a piece of energy moves off Asia energizing it. It then rides along an ultra-powerful 230-240mph jet stream fueling extreme Cyclogenesis. On Monday another piece of energy merges with it giving it another boost causing it to bomb rapidly deepening near the central Aleutians.

 

I have created 3 separate animated Gifs showing everything.

6z GFS HR 0 to 120 http://imgur.com/BrX0PEP

6z GFS HR 72 to 120 http://imgur.com/eU771Ow

6z GFS HR 72 to 108 http://imgur.com/SG07Wdk

 

This shows how it evolves from what it is now and then into an absolute Goliath. It will be fun to track this the next several days. I find it fascinating how this region between Kamchatka, the Sea of Okhotsk, and the Western/Southwestern Bering Sea is a breeding ground for extreme extra-tropical cyclones, just one after another, after another.

http://i.imgur.com/ms5oFhE.png

[IbrChris]

 

Tracking the Gulf of Alaska mega-low

What will become an absolutely massive storm somewhere around 927-935mb over the Gulf of Alaska sometime on Tuesday is actually currently around 985mb over the southern Sea of Okhotsk just to the southwest of Kamchatka. Models show it will meander northeast and weaken a bit at first, but then a piece of energy moves off Asia energizing it. It then rides along an ultra-powerful 230-240mph jet stream fueling extreme Cyclogenesis. On Monday another piece of energy merges with it giving it another boost causing it to bomb rapidly deepening near the central Aleutians.

 

I have created 3 separate animated Gifs showing everything.

6z GFS HR 0 to 120 http://imgur.com/BrX0PEP

6z GFS HR 72 to 120 http://imgur.com/eU771Ow

6z GFS HR 72 to 108 http://imgur.com/SG07Wdk

 

This shows how it evolves from what it is now and then into an absolute Goliath. It will be fun to track this the next several days. I find it fascinating how this region between Kamchatka, the Sea of Okhotsk, and the Western/Southwestern Bering Sea is a breeding ground for extreme extra-tropical cyclones, just one after another, after another.

 

It's going to pump up a massive warm ridge over central North America...looking at +20 F anomalies over portions of the Canadian Prairies in the 6-10 day period.

[Gradient Keeper]

It's going to pump up a massive warm ridge over central North America...looking at +20 F anomalies over portions of the Canadian Prairies in the 6-10 day period.

Yeah, it's going to amplify the hell out of the pattern out ahead of it.

[crf450ish]

[Gradient Keeper]

What does this mean for us?

Well, utter devastation. Nah. Initially it will pump a ridge up, mild SW-S flow over us, but beyond day 7 we need to watch the models to see if this super deep low might bring forth a pattern change. It might even be able to kick out the persistent Gulf of Alaska vortex.

[TT-SEA]

Sunrise over Seattle...

 

[MossMan]

Feel free, but I shared the stats. That's the only way to evaluate it objectively.

 

I experienced the event, too. For most lowland areas, the snow that fell leading up to the Arctic event quickly melted. It was a lot of highs around 40, lows around freezing days. The actual Arctic event was enjoyable for sure, and the clear/cold weather allowed lakes to freeze, but temps never got all that cold (look at the lows), and again, only a couple sub-freezing days for most the area.

 

Areas north of Everett and near the Gorge did better. But I'm looking at it from a more regional perspective.

It was a fantastic stretch up here! Glad I live north of Everett!

[Jesse]

Chillier this morning with spots of fog.

[Timmy Supercell]

Intense fog this morning. 31 degrees.

[Bryant]

Well, utter devastation. Nah. Initially it will pump a ridge up, mild SW-S flow over us, but beyond day 7 we need to watch the models to see if this super deep low might bring forth a pattern change. It might even be able to kick out the persistent Gulf of Alaska vortex.

Agreed. It's not about what this particular system may do for us, but more so what it may do for the overall pattern

[Weather101]

[Jesse]

PDX fell to 45 this morning. It's been a pretty great October so far.

[stuffradio]

PDX fell to 45 this morning. It's been a pretty great October so far.

It fell to 43 up here. Good May.

[Jesse]

It fell to 43 up here. Good May.

I saw some dandelions blooming yesterday. I guess it's true what they say about April showers!

[MossMan]

Had a low of 39 here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If anybody wants carrots (or just guilty pleasures in general), the CFS can provide them. 9*F on morning of 12/3. LOL. It's a lock!! 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016110400/708/sfct.conus.png

 

That cold air really digs into socal too. Low of 35 at LA, 43 at San Diego... Fun stuff. 

[Phil]

Funny to see 1997/98 continue topping the CPC analog list.

[Jesse]

Funny to see 1997/98 continue topping the CPC analog list.

Loltastic.

[Jesse]

12z Euro gives the eastern seaboard a chilly shot of air. At least it's a shake up.

[TT-SEA]

Woke up to 60... getting close to 70 now.   Might be a good afternoon for the boat!    

 

Oh crap... forgot we winterized it.  Any chance we are done with freezing temps yet?   

[ShawniganLake]

Woke up to 60... getting close to 70 now. Might be a good afternoon for the boat!

 

Oh crap... forgot we winterized it. Any chance we are done with freezing temps yet?

That's pretty toasty. Only 45F here. Perfect timing on the clouds to keep things cool this afternoon.

[TT-SEA]

That's pretty toasty. Only 45F here. Perfect timing on the clouds to keep things cool this afternoon.

 

 

I would not call that perfect timing.  

 

[Jesse]

That's pretty toasty. Only 45F here. Perfect timing on the clouds to keep things cool this afternoon.

55 down here after a low of 42.

[TT-SEA]

 

 

[Tundra]

New ECMWF (parallel) weeklies keep that giant GOA/NPAC vortex going strong right into Christmas. Fook.

 

That sucks. Some models are pointing to January as the best chance for a significant Arctic intrusion into the lower 48 including the PNW so we might have to wait until then.

[Tundra]

Decent agreement about the general pattern between the newest editions of the 12z GFS and EURO at day 10.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016110412/240/500h_anom.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016110412/240/500h_anom.na.png

 

I'm not liking what the newest edition of the 12z GFS shows in the long range. It wants to return us to a Split Flow/Cut-Off Low type pattern. 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016110412/384/500h_anom.na.png

[TT-SEA]

Bouncing around here either side of 70 now...

 

[Deweydog]

It's a screenshot Friday!

[Weather101]

It's a screenshot Friday!

More screenshots of temps in the 70s please !!

[TT-SEA]

It's a screenshot Friday!

 

Sort of impressive out there right now.

[Deweydog]

Sort of impressive out there right now.

It's a little less enjoyable knowing it's not frustrating Jim, though.

[TT-SEA]

It's a little less enjoyable knowing it's not frustrating Jim, though.

Its very enjoyable and I think its a good sign for winter.

[Brennan]

Funny to see 1997/98 continue topping the CPC analog list.

 

I’d take another January 12th 1998

Most memorable sledding night as a kid. Saddest morning on the 13th though. As a kid you didn’t realize that snow could change to rain so quickly 

[Deweydog]

70 on the truck thermometer!