November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow... the ECMWF went from dry on Sunday and Monday on previous runs to a major conveyor belt scenario and serious rain event on the 00Z run that seems to be focused on the coast and NW interior for now.   

Maybe the western ridge is showing signs of going away. Pattern change coming?

[snow_wizard]

Downtown Portland had an all time record eight consecutive highs below 20.

 

January 12, 1909 was the peak. Vancouver, WA had a high of 14 and a low of -8 that day. Forest Grove had 13 and -11. With 10-15" of snow on the ground throughout NW OR and SW WA.

 

Needless to say, January 1909 was pure 

 

Those are some crazy numbers.  Even better than it was up here.

[BLI snowman]

Those are some crazy numbers.  Even better than it was up here.

 

The Fraser River outflow was pretty incredible as well, though. A high of 8 at Olga and Clearbrook set their all time record low with -6. Agassiz, BC even had several highs below zero. 

[snow_wizard]

The Fraser River outflow was pretty incredible as well, though. A high of 8 at Olga and Clearbrook set their all time record low with -6. Agassiz, BC even had several highs below zero. 

 

That whole winter was very cold.  Clearbrook also had a low of 11 in December and 15 in February.  Snoqualmie had many highs of 40 or below in December.  Really something.

[ShawniganLake]

The Fraser River outflow was pretty incredible as well, though. A high of 8 at Olga and Clearbrook set their all time record low with -6. Agassiz, BC even had several highs below zero. 

Sub zero highs with snow falling, I might add. 

[Deweydog]

Wow. I was listening to 910 the fan and the guys were listing off the state of the world the last time the Cubs won the WS. This one really put it in perspective:

 

"The Pacific Northwest was able to get cold the last time the Cubs won the World Series."

 

AM radio Mic drop.

[snow_wizard]

Wow. I was listening to 910 the fan and the guys were listing off the state of the world the last time the Cubs won the WS. This one really put it in perspective:

 

"The Pacific Northwest was able to get cold the last time the Cubs won the World Series."

 

AM radio Mic drop.

 

:lol:

[Brennan]

Matthew Centrowitz was the first American to win gold in the 1500m at the Olympics since 1908 as well!!! 2016 is the year!

[westcoastexpat]

I wonder if I can have my cake and eat it too.  Past history tells us we could get away with a nice 3 day cold snap with snow in November (1921 and 2006) and still not ruin the prospects for the rest of the winter.

 

I think I'll place the order...If only....

 

You think it will only be 3 days once this pattern reverses? I really would expect to some prolonged cold at the start of December right now. I would not be surprised to see a week or more of cold temperatures to start the month off. There is simply so much cold air bottled up over Asia. Of course, the pattern may not be conducive for snow in the west and it may just sideswipe us to the east, but I would not be surprised to see sustained nationwide cold next month.

 

And of course, the pattern flip may not occur, but from the Euro weeklies to the CFS to the teleconnections forecast, it seems like a decent guess this far out. I've got my eye on last week of the month and first two weeks of December.

[Phil]

New JMA weeklies look very nice for week 3 & 4, FWIW. Very 2013/14 esque with blocking from the GOA/AK into the Arctic.

[crf450ish]

Wow. I was listening to 910 the fan and the guys were listing off the state of the world the last time the Cubs won the WS. This one really put it in perspective:

 

"The Pacific Northwest was able to get cold the last time the Cubs won the World Series."

 

AM radio Mic drop.

You mean western WA and western OR? The rest of the PNW gets cold every year.

[snow_wizard]

You mean western WA and western OR? The rest of the PNW gets cold every year.

 

He meant REALLY cold.  Some recent winters have been lame even in the interior.

[snow_wizard]

You think it will only be 3 days once this pattern reverses? I really would expect to some prolonged cold at the start of December right now. I would not be surprised to see a week or more of cold temperatures to start the month off. There is simply so much cold air bottled up over Asia. Of course, the pattern may not be conducive for snow in the west and it may just sideswipe us to the east, but I would not be surprised to see sustained nationwide cold next month.

 

And of course, the pattern flip may not occur, but from the Euro weeklies to the CFS to the teleconnections forecast, it seems like a decent guess this far out. I've got my eye on last week of the month and first two weeks of December.

 

There have been quick hitters in November before.  Just stating my wishes.

[snow_wizard]

New JMA weeklies look very nice for week 3 & 4, FWIW. Very 2013/14 esque with blocking from the GOA/AK into the Arctic.

 

There has been some hint on a few recent GFS runs that something could happen in that time frame.

[snow_wizard]

Mid 40s to low 50s this morning with clear skies ad little to no wind.  Amazingly warm for early November.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Mid 40s to low 50s this morning with clear skies ad little to no wind. Amazingly warm for early November.

Nah ... seems like a normal, modern day November...

[Jesse]

We will be moving back to Vancouver at the end of the month. This will usher in an era of winter awesomeness unseen since 2011-12.

[crf450ish]

He meant REALLY cold.  Some recent winters have been lame even in the interior.

I know. Tri Cities used to have regular extreme lows off and on during winter. Hasn't been the case recently (last 10 years)

[westcoastexpat]

There have been quick hitters in November before. Just stating my wishes.

Absolutely, but this type of set up with all the cold building on one side of the world, followed by a dive in teleconnections to all negative, tends to result in a flood of arctic air across the continent.

 

You're only wishing for a quick hitter?? Why?

[stuffradio]

If the 6Z meteostar totals are correct, I will be at 16" of rain by the end of the month.

[Karl Bonner]

To be fair October wasn't really a torch.  The extreme cloudiness of the month is the main reason it ended up above normal due to lack of radiational cooling.  The 850mb temps were actually below normal.

 

I thought clouds don't have a net warming effect in our climate until November? 

[stuffradio]

SOI is at 13 today, was at 18 yesterday.

[Jesse]

I thought clouds don't have a net warming effect in our climate until November?

October is the transitional month IMO. That's why the cool highs nearly made up for the well above average lows.

[Karl Bonner]

Waiting until March just plain sucks.    Rain and warm all winter and then turning cold and snowy in March would not be my preference.

 

Of course if I was writing this script... the lowlands would be snowy and cold from Thanksgiving to Valentines Day and then it would be in the 60s and sunny in March.  

But it's so much more mischievously fun when we either get three months of seasonal lag (or else none at all) !

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looking at the HRRR loop... the band just disappears later tonight.   

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2016110300&plotName=1ref_t1sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=37&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=36&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t1

 

Just curious... why would heavy rain now leach more nutrients than heavy rain in December?

 

I have heard leaching in saturated soils can be worse when soil temperatures are higher. But in our climate drought is more of a concern than saturation during the warm growing season.

[crf450ish]

Absolutely, but this type of set up with all the cold building on one side of the world, followed by a dive in teleconnections to all negative, tends to result in a flood of arctic air across the continent.

 

You're only wishing for a quick hitter?? Why?

I remember as a kid, not exactly sure when, but there was a cold snap, that lasted for weeks it seemed like. Water in the pond froze and the ice became thicker and thicker. The ground was hard as a rock for WEEKS after the cold snap gave up. By gave up I mean the daily high temps rose above freezing after the cold snap. This was in the early 90's in Graham, wa.

[ShawniganLake]

If the 6Z meteostar totals are correct, I will be at 16" of rain by the end of the month.

You must average 12"+ in November? Sure looks wet on the GFS.

[Jesse]

But it's so much more mischievously fun when we either get three months of seasonal lag (or else none at all) !

Same can be said for spring stretching into early-mid July.

[Jesse]

#40s

[Front Ranger]

Lots of the country can hit 80 in November, actually. Grand Rapids, Michigan at nearly 43 degrees north has hit 80 in November. Cleveland had a 77/65 day on 12/3/1982, which is ******* insane.

 

Here a mile high, we've hit 80 as late as mid November. We also hit 75 right after Christmas 1980.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Here a mile high, we've hit 80 as late as mid November. We also hit 75 right after Christmas 1980.

Sounds like a nightmare!   Anything above 50 at Christmas time is just wrong! OH I mean normal for here.

[Front Ranger]

Sounds like a nightmare!   Anything above 50 at Christmas time is just wrong! OH I mean normal for here.

 

Variable. Obviously not normal.

[HighlandExperience]

Sounds like a nightmare! Anything above 50 at Christmas time is just wrong! OH I mean normal for here.

No biggie in Colorado. Things change quickly there unlike here.

[crf450ish]

No biggie in Colorado. Things change quickly there unlike here.

No kidding. If its 50 on x mas, pretty sure bet itll stay that way or close to it through new years. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I can't believe the endless torch the models are showing. Torching which begets more torching...An endless theme for the past 2 1/2 years. 

[catnip]

:wacko:

 

 

 

[stuffradio]

I'm already at 2.71 inches of rain this month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

November is looking almost like a lock to have all-time warmth in the PNW. The beat goes on. 

[HighlandExperience]

[Kayla]

November is looking almost like a lock to have all-time warmth in the PNW. The beat goes on. 

 

It's November 3rd.