November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like some much needed rain approaching the coast now.   Hoping everyone gets some.    I don't want to drag out the sprinklers.

 

It's coming in from the SW; probably going to dump in your area and leave poor Victoria in the rain shadow. But be careful what you wish for, all this rain at this time of year is more likely to leach nutrients from the soil reducing the health of the garden.  

[TT-SEA]

It's coming in from the SW; probably going to dump in your area and leave poor Victoria in the rain shadow. But be careful what you wish for, all this rain at this time of year is more likely to leach nutrients from the soil reducing the health of the garden.

 

 

Looks like this band is behaving differently... stalled now.   Going to be very quick tonight and dry by morning.

 

And we are bringing in soil amendments for the garden next spring anyways.  

[snow_wizard]

I used to hate on Bastardi but have come to recognize he is usually right.  We will likely torch again this winter and have a little cold rain/snow mix in March.

 

I doubt it.

[TT-SEA]

It's coming in from the SW; probably going to dump in your area and leave poor Victoria in the rain shadow. But be careful what you wish for, all this rain at this time of year is more likely to leach nutrients from the soil reducing the health of the garden.

 

 

Looking at the HRRR loop... the band just disappears later tonight.   

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2016110300&plotName=1ref_t1sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=37&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=36&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t1

 

Just curious... why would heavy rain now leach more nutrients than heavy rain in December?

[snow_wizard]

Puyallup is likely to get swampy cold rain mixed with pulp particles from Tacoma.

 

I can just hear the forecast.  Scattered showers possibly mixed with pulp.  No pulp accumulation expected...

[snow_wizard]

The GFS once again shows heights trying to rise over the GOA later in week two.  Until then....nationwide torch.

[snow_wizard]

The NW wins the CFS battle for the average of the last 4 runs (one day), with a cold Jan and a cold Feb.

[TT-SEA]

The NW wins the CFS battle for the average of the last 4 runs (one day), with a cold Jan and a cold Feb.

 

 

 

I wonder what tomorrow will bring???    

[Phil]

It's gonna be in the 80s here tomorrow. Screw this pattern.

[TT-SEA]

It's gonna be in the 80s here tomorrow. Screw this pattern.

 

Better than 40 days of rain!    Downright biblical here.  

[HighlandExperience]

It's gonna be in the 80s here tomorrow. Screw this pattern.

Maryland is the new Georgia.

[stuffradio]

Yeah, still up there: http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-bastardi/updated-winter-forecast-3/

 

Weird, it's there again for me.

 

I'm not sure what is going on there.  I've seen the snowier forecast for us a few times and other times it's nowhere to be found.

Yeah, it's weird.

 

On another note, it's been raining relentlessly tonight. I wouldn't be surprised to get another 1+ inch of rain by tomorrow morning.

[Gradient Keeper]

Any good analogs for 1908???

[snow_wizard]

It's gonna be in the 80s here tomorrow. Screw this pattern.

 

Geeze.  I thought only CA and the extreme SE could pull that off in November.

[snow_wizard]

Any good analogs for 1908???

 

1908-09 was a fabulous winter.  What made you bring up that one?

[BLI snowman]

Any good analogs for 1908???

January 1909 was quite arguably the most impressive western WA/OR arctic airmass of the 20th century overall.

 

Go Cubs!

[Phil]

Maryland is the new Georgia.

Lol, a**.

[TT-SEA]

1908-09 was a fabulous winter.  What made you bring up that one?

 

 

You don't follow sports.   Cubs last won the World Series in 1908.    They won it again tonight.  

[Deweydog]

Hot July? Check!

 

Cold October? Check!

 

Cubs WS win? Check!

 

Break out the snow blowers!!!

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  I wish I had watched that.

[snow_wizard]

January 1909 was quite arguably the most impressive western WA/OR arctic airmass of the 20th century overall.

 

Go Cubs!

 

That was a great one.  It and Jan 1950 are considered the most intense -PNA episodes of the 20th century.  SEA had 10 consecutive max temps of freezing or below that month.  From the perspective of consecutive very cold max temps it is the winner for the 20th century.  Some of the highs were below 20.  Low temps weren't as impressive due to consistent light snow falling and mostly cloudy skies.  No matter how you slice it though quite a month.  There were a couple of other cold snaps thrown in during that winter also.

[Tundra]

Wow, very interesting. The similarities are... blatant.

 

But as far as I'm concerned, that's simply a pattern that, in the case of 76/77, was very persistent... could be transient in 2016.

Does this mean he is all in on that prognostication?  He sounds pretty sure of himself...  Doesn't leave himself much of an out if his 'plan' doesn't pan out...

Man, he's really laying it on thick. That said, if there's one winter I'd really love to go back and experience, it's 1978/79. Epic from coast to coast.

 

I'm not all that concerned this is going to be a 1975-96 or 1976-77 Winter. Especially 76-77 because that was an El Nino and that Winter was just crazy because it snowed in Miami and the Bahamas. Joe Bastardi is just an East Coast guy who he gets super excited when maps show cold and snow. He literally wears snow colored glasses on Twitter. With that being said he is one of the best Meteorologists in the World and is more often right than wrong. So when he talks, people listen. He was totally wrong though about our Wind Storm in October, he kept saying on Twitter a Columbus Day Storm was coming but it fizzled out.

[TT-SEA]

Wow!  I wish I had watched that.

 

How could you not know it was game 7 of the World Series tonight?   

[James Jones]

Geeze.  I thought only CA and the extreme SE could pull that off in November.

Lots of the country can hit 80 in November, actually. Grand Rapids, Michigan at nearly 43 degrees north has hit 80 in November. Cleveland had a 77/65 day on 12/3/1982, which is ******* insane.

[Gradient Keeper]

I was watching Game 6 last night, streaming posting updates from the game in my PDX WX group on Facebook, and then this happened. Check out the time stamp, and then my comment. A little creepy? SO this guarantees a historic 1908-1909 Winter redux

 

http://i.imgur.com/mqeNeee.png

[snow_wizard]

I'm not all that concerned this is going to be a 1975-96 or 1976-77 Winter. Especially 76-77 because that was an El Nino and that Winter was just crazy because it snowed in Miami and the Bahamas. Joe Bastardi is just an East Coast guy who he gets super excited when maps show cold and snow. He literally wears snow colored glasses on Twitter. With that being said he is one of the best Meteorologists in the World and is more often right than wrong. So when he talks, people listen. He was totally wrong though about our Wind Storm in October, he kept saying on Twitter a Columbus Day Storm was coming but it fizzled out.

 

I should get myself some snow colored glasses too.  Put them on and it looks like a foot of snow on the ground!

[Gradient Keeper]

January 1909 was quite arguably the most impressive western WA/OR arctic airmass of the 20th century overall.

 

Go Cubs!

That works for me. Done deal. How cold were the temps? and how much snowfall did we see?

[Tundra]

The GFS once again shows heights trying to rise over the GOA later in week two.  Until then....nationwide torch.

 

Yeah models are trying to decide right now where to exactly build the ridge. The newest edition of the 00z shows Blocking starting to form where we want it to over the GOA but also just off our coastline. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/U5VzSag.png

[TT-SEA]

Lots of the country can hit 80 in November, actually. Grand Rapids, Michigan at nearly 43 degrees north has hit 80 in November. Cleveland had a 77/65 day on 12/3/1982, which is ******* insane.

 

 

 

Lots of place in Minnesota hit 70 degrees in December of 1998.

[Gradient Keeper]

How about that 265mph jet on the 00z GFS tonight? at Day 5-6. That's insane

[snow_wizard]

Thinking about 1908-09 got me to thinking about Jan 1907 also.  Snoqualmie averaged 29.3 in 1907 and 31.6 in 1909!  Just crazy how often it used to get cold here.  In the winter of 1908-09 they also averaged 35 in December.

[snow_wizard]

How about that 265mph jet on the 00z GFS tonight? at Day 5-6. That's insane

 

Where does that hit?

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah models are trying to decide right now where to exactly build the ridge. The newest edition of the 00z shows Blocking starting to form where we want it to over the GOA but also just off our coastline. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/U5VzSag.png

 

Looks excellent to me. Offshore ridge backs away, re-configures morphing/merging with block over Alaska with the axis somewhere near 145-150 W, then it positive tilts favorably. If I were to extrapolate beyond day 16 that's what I see occurring.

[James Jones]

 

Lots of place in Minnesota hit 70 degrees in December of 1998.

 

And last year Central Park hit 72 on Christmas Eve. Yay for super Ninos!

[snow_wizard]

Yeah models are trying to decide right now where to exactly build the ridge. The newest edition of the 00z shows Blocking starting to form where we want it to over the GOA but also just off our coastline. 

 

 

Classic retrogression move.  No doubt we would be in the freezer a few days later if that were to verify.  It seems that very low AO Octobers have a history of bringing November Arctic outbreaks here.  Certainly can't rule it out.

[Gradient Keeper]

Where does that hit?

Seems to peak around 160 W, then fades away.... but that bares watching and if this transpires that could lead to a major pattern change.

[snow_wizard]

I wonder if I can have my cake and eat it too.  Past history tells us we could get away with a nice 3 day cold snap with snow in November (1921 and 2006) and still not ruin the prospects for the rest of the winter.

 

I think I'll place the order...If only....

[TT-SEA]

Wow... the ECMWF went from dry on Sunday and Monday on previous runs to a major conveyor belt scenario and serious rain event on the 00Z run that seems to be focused on the coast and NW interior for now.   

[BLI snowman]

That works for me. Done deal. How cold were the temps? and how much snowfall did we see?

 

Downtown Portland had an all time record eight consecutive highs below 20.

 

January 12, 1909 was the peak. Vancouver, WA had a high of 14 and a low of -8 that day. Forest Grove had 13 and -11. With 10-15" of snow on the ground throughout NW OR and SW WA.

 

Needless to say, January 1909 was pure 

[Gradient Keeper]

Downtown Portland had an all time record eight consecutive highs below 20.

 

January 12, 1909 was the peak. Vancouver, WA had a high of 14 and a low of -8 that day. Forest Grove had 13 and -11. With 10-15" of snow on the ground throughout NW OR and SW WA.

 

Needless to say, January 1909 was pure 

Wow, that's frigid! Thanks for digging up the info.