November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Tundra]

This graph depicting decadal snowfall shocks me. I had no idea how bad things have become out there. Almost a 90% decline in decadal snowfall since the 1870s?

 

 

From an average of 18 inches a year back in the 1870s and 1880s to a measly 2 inches a year now. If not for the 2 feet in December 2008 it would have been worse in the 2000s. 

[snow_wizard]

How can something be "normal" when the climate is warming? Nothing is normal right now. Even cyclical fluctuations are affected/going to be affected by increased temperatures as a result of GHG's. We're talking about open systems in nature being affected by planetary-scale warming...

 

I grant you the planet has been warming, but the question is what is causing it.  As you know the planet has undergone huge temperature swings in the past before man was a factor.  There have undoubtedly been many index fluctuations in that time.  I think the NAO becoming so negative during the summer could very possibly be natural phenomenon.  The fact it happened so suddenly actually argues for a natural cause.  Maybe the last solar minimum being so deep was a trigger.  Who knows.

 

I would think you of all people would be thinking outside of the box on this.

[snow_wizard]

Can it be argued that the -NAO during JJA is at least in part forced by lower Arctic sea ice extent in the summer (and the warmer summer temperatures in the Arctic as a result)? I would think that a warmer Arctic during the summer would create a smaller equator-pole temperature gradient than in summers past, leading to a weaker Icelandic low and less of a pressure gradient across the N. Atlantic during the summer (leading to lower NAO).

 

I know there's a lot more to it than that, but this over-simplified correlation immediately jumped out at me.  

 

The sea ice went low in 2007 (the same year the NAO did).  It might be possible the NAO plunge that summer caused the low sea ice.

[snow_wizard]

There is indeed an enormous cold pool over Eurasia right now with nothing in our hemisphere.  A huge nationwade cold wave becomes more likely a bit down the road the longer this is the case.  Since that happened in 1983 it's pretty easy to imagine it happening this time around.

[Thunder98]

Could the Central Coast of California see the impacts of the outbreak?

[Phil]

Can it be argued that the -NAO during JJA is at least in part forced by lower Arctic sea ice extent in the summer (and the warmer summer temperatures in the Arctic as a result)? I would think that a warmer Arctic during the summer would create a smaller equator-pole temperature gradient than in summers past, leading to a weaker Icelandic low and less of a pressure gradient across the N. Atlantic during the summer (leading to lower NAO).

 

I know there's a lot more to it than that, but this over-simplified correlation immediately jumped out at me.

I think it's possible, sure. I don't have the answers, of course.

 

My hunch is that it has mostly to do with the combination of broader Hadley Cells, and the abrupt weakening of the solar winds/AP index that occurred in 2006. Theoretically, the combination of these two forcings would promote something similar. That leaves the 1950s unexplained, however.

[Jesse]

Could the Central Coast of California see the impacts of the outbreak?

 

Yes.

[Phil]

How can something be "normal" when the climate is warming? Nothing is normal right now. Even cyclical fluctuations are affected/going to be affected by increased temperatures as a result of GHG's. We're talking about open systems in nature being affected by planetary-scale warming...

To be fair, the current global warming (since the 1700s) is well within the range of natural climate variability within the Holocene (over the last 11,000+ years), based on the highest resolution isotope based proxies. Arctic summers were likely ice free as recently as 8000yrs ago.

[Jesse]

To be fair, the current global warming (since the 1700s) is well within the range of natural climate variability within the Holocene (over the last 11,000+ years), based on the highest resolution isotope based proxies. Arctic summers were likely ice free as recently as 8000yrs ago.

 

Shortly after the end of the Pleistocene?

[Phil]

FWIW, according to Dr. Judah Cohen, the October SAI (snow advance index, measures the rate/magnitude of snowcover advance south of 60N in Euasia) looks to be the second highest on record, behind 1976/77.

 

The correlation has been criticized, but virtually all of the very high SAI years have featured either periods of significant high latitude blocking or anomalous cold/snow over the US.

[Tundra]

Take this with a grain of pepper and not too literally. It sure is pretty though, isn't it? Subject to change: Yes

 

00z CFS shows classic retrogression beginning at day 12. It takes awhile, but a solid block builds over Alaska with 500mb heights over 560 across southern Alaska. Flow eventually buckles bends around to the northeast. 850mb -10c and colder move over WA/parts of OR. Done deal. Sorry for posting so many images, but I think you'll be okay with it.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016110200/288/500h_anom.na.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016110200/336/500h_anom.na.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016110200/420/500h_anom.na.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016110200/384/850th_nb.na.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016110200/432/850th_nb.na.png

 

Post all the images you want, the colder and snowier the better. 

[Front Ranger]

How can something be "normal" when the climate is warming? Nothing is normal right now. Even cyclical fluctuations are affected/going to be affected by increased temperatures as a result of GHG's. We're talking about open systems in nature being affected by planetary-scale warming...

 

At the same time, climate has always been in a state of flux. Warming or cooling. Granted, the speed of the warming right now is faster than most previous climate changes.

[Front Ranger]

This graph depicting decadal snowfall shocks me. I had no idea how bad things have become out there. Almost a 90% decline in decadal snowfall since the 1870s?

 

 

Again though, with 3 winters remaining in the 2010s, it would only take one good one for this graph to end up quite a bit different at the end.

[Phil]

Shortly after the end of the Pleistocene?

Well, whether or not we've actually left the Pleistocene is debatable. Assuming we have requires the labeling of the Holocene as a new "epoch", which assumes that we've left the stadials/interstadial cycle that's dominated the last million+ years.

 

Technically we have labeled the Holocene as a new epoch, which I think is wishful thinking but what do I know.

[Jesse]

Well, whether or not we've actually left the Pleistocene is debatable. Assuming we have requires the labeling of the Holocene as a new "epoch", which assumes that we've left the stadials/interstadial cycle that's dominated the last million+ years.

 

Technically we have labeled the Holocene as a new epoch, which I think is wishful thinking but what do I know.

 

Then you have people saying we have left the Holocene and are now in the Anthropocene.

[MossMan]

[MossMan]

Day's like this I am thankful to be rain shadowed...looks like it might actually stay dry for more than 10 minutes!!

[ShawniganLake]

Again though, with 3 winters remaining in the 2010s, it would only take one good one for this graph to end up quite a bit different at the end.

What would you consider good. Is the graph really going to look vastly different if the end result is 35" in the 2010's

[Phil]

Then you have people saying we have left the Holocene and are now in the Anthropocene.

Well that's just bulls**t, IMO. We've got, what, a few hundred years of fossil fuels left? Not to mention none of the proposed positive feedback loops have materialized (yet).

 

What do you think will happen as obliquity and precession continue to move into an ice-age-favoring state over the next 10,000 years?

[Phil]

Ugly 12z ECMWF run..eeek.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW, according to Dr. Judah Cohen, the October SAI (snow advance index, measures the rate/magnitude of snowcover advance south of 60N in Euasia) looks to be the second highest on record, behind 1976/77.

 

The correlation has been criticized, but virtually all of the very high SAI years have featured either periods of significant high latitude blocking or anomalous cold/snow over the US.

 

Lord knows 1976-77 had a wee bit of blocking during the winter.  It was a Nino so the position of any blocking this winter could easily be different.

[wx_statman]

I grant you the planet has been warming, but the question is what is causing it.  As you know the planet has undergone huge temperature swings in the past before man was a factor.  There have undoubtedly been many index fluctuations in that time.  I think the NAO becoming so negative during the summer could very possibly be natural phenomenon.  The fact it happened so suddenly actually argues for a natural cause.  Maybe the last solar minimum being so deep was a trigger.  Who knows.

 

I would think you of all people would be thinking outside of the box on this.

 

I don't see how this relates to what I said...

[snow_wizard]

Ugly 12z ECMWF run..eeek.

 

It so bad it almost seems like it has to lead to something good.  A full reversal could be in the cards.

[wx_statman]

The sea ice went low in 2007 (the same year the NAO did).  It might be possible the NAO plunge that summer caused the low sea ice.

 

Certainly. I don't have the answers or even the knowledge base to attempt a more in-depth explanation. 

[snow_wizard]

What would you consider good. Is the graph really going to look vastly different if the end result is 35" in the 2010's

 

I think we could have a monster winter before 2020, but only time will tell.  Maybe that graph will start to look more interesting.  BTW the graph is apparently wrong anyway.  Too little snow some decades.

[Tundra]

New post from Big Joe Bastardi, not good but I don't see this pattern lasting all Winter even if it verifies.

 

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi  "Back to back 2 worst winters last 50 years 500 mb, Euro parallel ensembles week ending 12/2 best euro products http://Weatherbell.com prem"

 

http://i.imgur.com/BjPRYLO.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/CNhc3ov.jpg

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/793918787007422464

[wx_statman]

To be fair, the current global warming (since the 1700s) is well within the range of natural climate variability within the Holocene (over the last 11,000+ years), based on the highest resolution isotope based proxies. Arctic summers were likely ice free as recently as 8000yrs ago.

 

Well, the Holocene Climatic Optimum isn't really a mystery to paleoclimatologists. Neither is the current (at least partially) GHG-fueled round of warming. 

 

So we're not breaking any new ground here. 

[wx_statman]

At the same time, climate has always been in a state of flux. Warming or cooling. Granted, the speed of the warming right now is faster than most previous climate changes.

 

Exactly.

[wx_statman]

Well, whether or not we've actually left the Pleistocene is debatable. Assuming we have requires the labeling of the Holocene as a new "epoch", which assumes that we've left the stadials/interstadial cycle that's dominated the last million+ years.

 

Technically we have labeled the Holocene as a new epoch, which I think is wishful thinking but what do I know.

 

We're hearing the term "Anthropocene" more and more these days as well. 

[wx_statman]

Then you have people saying we have left the Holocene and are now in the Anthropocene.

 

That's funny, I didn't even notice you made this post before I made mine. 

[Jesse]

That's funny, I didn't even notice you made this post before I made mine.

I wonder if yours will make Phil equally irate.

[HighlandExperience]

[wx_statman]

Well that's just bulls**t, IMO. We've got, what, a few hundred years of fossil fuels left? Not to mention none of the proposed positive feedback loops have materialized (yet).

 

What do you think will happen as obliquity and precession continue to move into an ice-age-favoring state over the next 10,000 years?

 

That's very debatable. The term "Anthropocene" encompasses the entire suite of human impacts on the planet, not just our alteration of the climate. The premise is that we've made enough of a footprint so as to be visible on a geologic horizon millions of years from now, assuming the Earth will have intelligent beings capable of studying the past, at that time.

 

This is also very much outside the scope of this thread/forum!

[wx_statman]

I wonder if yours will make Phil equally irate.

 

It shouldn't make anyone irate, provided they understand the definition of the term! 

[westcoastexpat]

New post from Big Joe Bastardi, not good but I don't see this pattern lasting all Winter even if it verifies.

 

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi  "Back to back 2 worst winters last 50 years 500 mb, Euro parallel ensembles week ending 12/2 best euro products http://Weatherbell.com prem"

 

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/793918787007422464

 

Wow, very interesting. The similarities are... blatant.

 

But as far as I'm concerned, that's simply a pattern that, in the case of 76/77, was very persistent... could be transient in 2016.

[Deweydog]

Toasty out.

[Front Ranger]

What would you consider good. Is the graph really going to look vastly different if the end result is 35" in the 2010's

 

One 18" winter, a 5", and a 2", and we're looking at the snowiest decade since the 1970s for Portland. Not at all out of the realm of possibility.

[James Jones]

One 18" winter, a 5", and a 2", and we're looking at the snowiest decade since the 1970s for Portland. Not at all out of the realm of possibility.

PDX had 43.6" last decade (assuming we're counting '08-09 as the last winter of the decade, and not the NWS standard of using '09-10 as the last winter of the decade). We've had 16.6" this decade, so we'd have to average 9" the next three years to match the 00s. Doable, but unlikely.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/pdxclimate/pg98.pdf

[Timmy Supercell]

October 2016 was officially the 3rd wettest in Klamath Falls with 2.48" of rain.

1950 is the wettest at 2.96", 1979 is 2nd wettest at 2.84".

[Abbotsford_wx]

PDX had 43.6" last decade (assuming we're counting '08-09 as the last winter of the decade, and not the NWS standard of using '09-10 as the last winter of the decade). We've had 16.6" this decade, so we'd have to average 9" the next three years to match the 00s. Doable, but unlikely.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/pdxclimate/pg98.pdf

 

Easiest way is to just use entire year... January 2000 to December 2009.