November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Farmboy]

New post from Big Joe Bastardi, not good but I don't see this pattern lasting all Winter even if it verifies.

 

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi  "Back to back 2 worst winters last 50 years 500 mb, Euro parallel ensembles week ending 12/2 best euro products http://Weatherbell.com prem"

 

http://i.imgur.com/BjPRYLO.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/CNhc3ov.jpg

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/793918787007422464

Does this mean he is all in on that prognostication?  He sounds pretty sure of himself...  Doesn't leave himself much of an out if his 'plan' doesn't pan out...

[snow_wizard]

Could be something good for just east of the Rockies

 

Unlikely given the dominance of GOA and SE ridging for a good part of the last 5 months.  The NW has been the only place in North America to have mean heights below normal from June - Oct.  The burden of proof is on Bastardi here.  Almost no doubt we score at some point if November is the torch it appears it will be.

 

Bastardi is using 2014-15 as an analog (a nino year) which skews his 500mb anomaly map all to hell because it was so anomalous here.

 

Edit: I see the map posted earlier is something else which shows only 1976-77 and 1977-78...both Nino years BTW.  Sometimes he gets carried away.

[snow_wizard]

Does this mean he is all in on that prognostication?  He sounds pretty sure of himself...  Doesn't leave himself much of an out if his 'plan' doesn't pan out...

 

He's on really thin ice IMO.  Those years had little in common with this one except the heavy Eurasian snow cover.  Besides that we are only talking about the very beginning of winter on that one anomaly map.

[snow_wizard]

You have to love Bastardi though.  Using all Nino years to try to show it's going to be epic in the East.  Nino 3.4 is currently at -1.1.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like some much needed rain approaching the coast now.   Hoping everyone gets some.    I don't want to drag out the sprinklers.

[snow_wizard]

Wow, very interesting. The similarities are... blatant.

 

But as far as I'm concerned, that's simply a pattern that, in the case of 76/77, was very persistent... could be transient in 2016.

 

The chances of this being like 1976-77 are probably lower than it being like 1949-50.  Good chance the pattern will favor a cold East for a while later this month though.

[snow_wizard]

The latest ECMWF ensemble and ensemble control like a Western ridge in the 10 to 15 day period.  Will it be a torch or an inversion?

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks like some much needed rain approaching the coast now.   Hoping everyone gets some.    I don't want to drag out the sprinklers.

 

I feel much better... I was getting very worried about the dwindling slug population. Extinction was becoming a real concern.

[Front Ranger]

PDX had 43.6" last decade (assuming we're counting '08-09 as the last winter of the decade, and not the NWS standard of using '09-10 as the last winter of the decade). We've had 16.6" this decade, so we'd have to average 9" the next three years to match the 00s. Doable, but unlikely.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/pdxclimate/pg98.pdf

 

The graph I was referring to was for downtown Portland.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like some much needed rain approaching the coast now. Hoping everyone gets some. I don't want to drag out the sprinklers.

I've been getting it all day. Going to be close to 2" for November by the end of the day. Could be worse, areas of central Vancouver island are in the 4-7" range, even along the "drier" east coast.

[TT-SEA]

I feel much better... I was getting very worried about the dwindling slug population. Extinction was becoming a real concern.

 

Won't someone think of the slugs and mushrooms??      

[snow_wizard]

 

October 2016 was officially the 3rd wettest in Klamath Falls with 2.48" of rain.

1950 is the wettest at 2.96", 1979 is 2nd wettest at 2.84".

 

 

1950 is another year being thrown around as an analog.  That was certainly a winter the NW did well the second half.

[Phil]

New post from Big Joe Bastardi, not good but I don't see this pattern lasting all Winter even if it verifies.

 

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi "Back to back 2 worst winters last 50 years 500 mb, Euro parallel ensembles week ending 12/2 best euro products http://Weatherbell.com prem"

 

http://i.imgur.com/BjPRYLO.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/CNhc3ov.jpg

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/793918787007422464

Man, he's really laying it on thick. That said, if there's one winter I'd really love to go back and experience, it's 1978/79. Epic from coast to coast.

[Jesse]

Won't someone think of the slugs and mushrooms??

They were here before us.

[Phil]

I wonder if yours will make Phil equally irate.

Yeah, you're the one to talk about irate.

[Phil]

That's very debatable. The term "Anthropocene" encompasses the entire suite of human impacts on the planet, not just our alteration of the climate. The premise is that we've made enough of a footprint so as to be visible on a geologic horizon millions of years from now, assuming the Earth will have intelligent beings capable of studying the past, at that time.

 

This is also very much outside the scope of this thread/forum!

I'm just speaking in terms of climate. An "epoch" is in reference to a climactic regime on a geologic timescale. The idea that we're pushing the system into a multimillion year hothouse state is very much "out there", in my opinion. Though maybe I'm not the one to talk in regards to that.

[stuffradio]

I'm at 2.22 inches of rain this month already. 1.95 inches today.

[TT-SEA]

They were here before us.

 

 

Indeed they were.   

[Phil]

Unlikely given the dominance of GOA and SE ridging for a good part of the last 5 months. The NW has been the only place in North America to have mean heights below normal from June - Oct. The burden of proof is on Bastardi here. Almost no doubt we score at some point if November is the torch it appears it will be.

 

Bastardi is using 2014-15 as an analog (a nino year) which skews his 500mb anomaly map all to hell because it was so anomalous here.

 

Edit: I see the map posted earlier is something else which shows only 1976-77 and 1977-78...both Nino years BTW. Sometimes he gets carried away.

Maybe I'm biased, but I have to say, we've been sitting under a death ridge for so long now, it's hard to imagine it'll continue much longer. Literally 14 out of the last 17 months, and every month since June, have been blast furnaces here. Sucks.

[TT-SEA]

1950 is another year being thrown around as an analog.  That was certainly a winter the NW did well the second half.

 

 

Waiting until March just plain sucks.    Rain and warm all winter and then turning cold and snowy in March would not be my preference.

 

Of course if I was writing this script... the lowlands would be snowy and cold from Thanksgiving to Valentines Day and then it would be in the 60s and sunny in March.  

[Farmboy]

So what about the 4 arctic blasts from end of November to mid-December the ECMWF weeklies were showing and people were talking about on page 1..?  Just because Joe B. made some tweet, that throws cold water on all that?

[TT-SEA]

So what about the 4 arctic blasts from end of November to mid-December the ECMWF weeklies were showing and people were talking about on page 1..?  Just because Joe B. made some tweet, that throws cold water on all that?

 

A couple people on here are way too concerned with Bastardi and his forecasts.      He does not even know the PNW exists.  

[Front Ranger]

Going along with SW's point about torchy Novembers...here are all Novembers at OLM that have averaged 45.0 or warmer (normal is just under 43).

 

1949, 1953, 1954, 1962, 1965, 1980, 1981, 1983, 1987, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2008

 

The bolded were all non-strong ENSO years like this one. 6/8 were followed by a major Arctic event in December or January. 

[stuffradio]

A couple people on here are way too concerned with Bastardi and his forecasts.      He does not even know the PNW exists.  

He did for a couple hours, then I started talking about the winter forecast on Twitter, and then he changed it. Ryan Maue follows me on Twitter, so that's probably why.

[Phil]

He did for a couple hours, then I started talking about the winter forecast on Twitter, and then he changed it. Ryan Maue follows me on Twitter, so that's probably why.

I still see his "snowier than average" map up on WxBell?

[stuffradio]

I still see his "snowier than average" map up on WxBell?

For the PNW? I didn't, it got updated for me

[Phil]

For the PNW? I didn't, it got updated for me

I still see it there. When did you last check?

[Phil]

Yeah, still up there: http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-bastardi/updated-winter-forecast-3/

[crf450ish]

You have to love Bastardi though. Using all Nino years to try to show it's going to be epic in the East. Nino 3.4 is currently at -1.1.

Why is there is no west coast dominant forecaster? It's always about the east. We get it, it snows there every year and gets bitter colds every year.

[bainbridgekid]

Why is there is no west coast dominant forecaster? It's always about the east. We get it, it snows there every year and gets bitter colds every year.

It's just a numbers game. Same reason ESPN covers the East coast so much.

 

About 100 million people live on or near the East Coast.

 

The West Coast has about 40 million, but the vast majority of them live in California and their weather is about as interesting as watching paint dry.

[Parksvillewx]

I'm at 2.22 inches of rain this month already. 1.95 inches today.

 

Whoa. 0.8" here today and 1.02" for the month.

[James Jones]

The graph I was referring to was for downtown Portland.

Downtown Portland has a lot of missing and fishy data in recent decades. Lots of missing months from the 80s and suspicious totals (there's no way downtown only got 6.5" in '03-'04 for example, or 14.3" in '08-'09 - they apparently didn't even record a trace in January '09, which is obviously bogus). Way better to go with PDX for recent decades.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/pdxclimate/pg100.pdf

[snow_wizard]

Going along with SW's point about torchy Novembers...here are all Novembers at OLM that have averaged 45.0 or warmer (normal is just under 43).

 

1949, 1953, 1954, 1962, 1965, 1980, 1981, 1983, 1987, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2008

 

The bolded were all non-strong ENSO years like this one. 6/8 were followed by a major Arctic event in December or January. 

 

 

And one of the other had a huge blast in March.  7/8

[Front Ranger]

Downtown Portland has a lot of missing and fishy data in recent decades. Lots of missing months from the 80s and suspicious totals (there's no way downtown only got 6.5" in '03-'04 for example, or 14.3" in '08-'09 - they apparently didn't even record a trace in January '09, which is obviously bogus). Way better to go with PDX for recent decades.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/pdxclimate/pg100.pdf

 

Odd that Nelsen chose to post that graph.

[snow_wizard]

For the PNW? I didn't, it got updated for me

 

I'm not sure what is going on there.  I've seen the snowier forecast for us a few times and other times it's nowhere to be found.

[Front Ranger]

I'm not sure what is going on there.  I've seen the snowier forecast for us a few times and other times it's nowhere to be found.

 

Easier to be right that way.

[The Swamp]

I used to hate on Bastardi but have come to recognize he is usually right.  We will likely torch again this winter and have a little cold rain/snow mix in March.

[James Jones]

Odd that Nelsen chose to post that graph.

Yeah, I thought it was odd as soon as I saw the blog post. He probably doesn't care about the details like us weenies, and was just trying to illustrate the long term trend.

[MossMan]

I used to hate on Bastardi but have come to recognize he is usually right. We will likely torch again this winter and have a little cold rain/snow mix in March.

The swamp yes...northern Snohomish co however will have a 2008 redux!

[HighlandExperience]

I used to hate on Bastardi but have come to recognize he is usually right. We will likely torch again this winter and have a little cold rain/snow mix in March.

Puyallup is likely to get swampy cold rain mixed with pulp particles from Tacoma.