November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Timmy Supercell]

its almost as if global warming is real it would have been nice to have an early ski season!

 

I can't believe the endless torch the models are showing. Torching which begets more torching...An endless theme for the past 2 1/2 years. 

 

I still think there will be a ski season, if it's not early. Just not seeing a '14-'15 kind of winter materializing. Maybe more like last winter if the worst happens (mountain snow, no lowland snow. Above average snowpack). But I think maybe a couple/few inches in low elevations this time. Just not like 2008 or 2004.

[luvssnow_spokane]

It's November 3rd.

It is... But is also a very familiar pattern we have seen for awhile now. Thank goodness it is still early.

[bainbridgekid]

Lots of the country can hit 80 in November, actually. Grand Rapids, Michigan at nearly 43 degrees north has hit 80 in November. Cleveland had a 77/65 day on 12/3/1982, which is ******* insane.

It was also 78/65 in Cleveland just yesterday. Hit 80 the day before that.

[Timmy Supercell]

November could be much drier in Klamath Falls. Only 2 small chances of rain in the next 10 days. To be expected though, I haven't experienced any real rainy Novembers in my time so far in this area.

 

Let it sun.....let it sun....

[Front Ranger]

November is looking almost like a lock to have all-time warmth in the PNW. The beat goes on. 

 

Hey, there was a nice 5 month break from record warmth.

[Guest Winterdog]

Another dagger in the heart of northwest snow lovers: http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2016/11/02/colder-winters/

[Front Ranger]

It is... But is also a very familiar pattern we have seen for awhile now. Thank goodness it is still early.

 

Except November has been auspiciously missing from the warmth in recent years...this may be different.

[Front Ranger]

Another dagger in the heart of northwest snow lovers: http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2016/11/02/colder-winters/

 

Brilliant journalism. The last sentence is especially compelling: The changes may just mean more layers to brave more brushes with bone-chilling Arctic air.

[Phil]

Another dagger in the heart of northwest snow lovers: http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2016/11/02/colder-winters/

How is that a dagger? Looks like it's talking about the NE, not the NW.

[Guest Winterdog]

It's all about the Northeast.  I don't give a rats a** or any other type of animals a** about the east coast.

[Phil]

It's all about the Northeast. I don't give a rats a** or any other type of animals a** about the east coast.

Exactly, so why is it a dagger to your heart?

[Timmy Supercell]

How is that a dagger? Looks like it's talking about the NE, not the NW.

 

Yeah, and when people say "NW" it's Portland and Seattle. Just buy a set of skis and go to the cascades.  

 

There's gonna be snow and it's gonna be great. 

[Guest Winterdog]

Haha.  I was being a bit overdramatic using the term 'dagger' I suppose, but positives regarding the east coast winters generally translate into negatives for us. 

[Front Ranger]

You all should be rooting for it to get as warm as possible over the next couple weeks. Record warmth from late October - mid November has often been a harbinger of most excellent things later. Mainly for neutral/-ENSO years.

 

10/23/92 - broke tons of records, including a 77 at OLM, the latest they've ever been that warm

Late Oct/early Nov 1949 - epic fall heat wave

Early Nov 2006: very warm, lots of warm low records

Early Nov 2008: same thing

early Nov 2010: same thing

Early Nov 1990: also a record-setting warm spike

Late October/early Nov 1978 also had a couple very warm periods.

 

And even the recently mentioned 1908 had a major warm spell in early November. In fact, Clearbrook hit 69 on this very day in 1908, the latest they've ever been that warm.

[Deweydog]

I too think it will cool down after the warmth.

[BLI snowman]

You all should be rooting for it to get as warm as possible over the next couple weeks. Record warmth from late October - mid November has often been a harbinger of most excellent things later. Mainly for neutral/-ENSO years.

 

10/23/92 - broke tons of records, including a 77 at OLM, the latest they've ever been that warm

Late Oct/early Nov 1949 - epic fall heat wave

Early Nov 2006: very warm, lots of warm low records

Early Nov 2008: same thing

early Nov 2010: same thing

Early Nov 1990: also a record-setting warm spike

Late October/early Nov 1978 also had a couple very warm periods.

 

And even the recently mentioned 1908 had a major warm spell in early November. In fact, Clearbrook hit 69 on this very day in 1908, the latest they've ever been that warm.

 

1999, 1980, and 1969 are some other great examples.

[Brennan]

1999, 1980, and 1969 are some other great examples.

november 1949

[HighlandExperience]

I still think there will be a ski season, if it's not early. Just not seeing a '14-'15 kind of winter materializing. Maybe more like last winter if the worst happens (mountain snow, no lowland snow. Above average snowpack). But I think maybe a couple/few inches in low elevations this time. Just not like 2008 or 2004.

 

 

I agree that we will still have a great ski season.

 

In fact I think it will be better than the last two seasons. I am just disappointed it has not come a bit earlier this year at the lower elevations. Backcountry is looking good right now above 5K in certain locations. 

[Front Ranger]

1999, 1980, and 1969 are some other great examples.

 

Yep. But of those, 1980 is the only decent ENSO match.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1999, 1980, and 1969 are some other great examples.

 

Ouch

[SilverFallsAndrew]

november 1949

 

It didn't follow a torch October though

[Jesse]

It didn't follow a torch October though

Let's all ignore that fact. It will help morale as we endure this torch.

[Jesse]

I agree that we will still have a great ski season.

 

In fact I think it will be better than the last two seasons. I am just disappointed it has not come a bit earlier this year at the lower elevations. Backcountry is looking good right now above 5K in certain locations.

To be fair, it's pretty normal for things to not pick up from that standpoint until Thanksgiving or later.

 

From what I can tell from various hikes and trip reports this fall, the snowpack above 5,000 in the Cascades was one of the earliest in years at that elevation. Many high elevation destinations had significant snow by mid-month.

[Front Ranger]

It didn't follow a torch October though

 

I wouldn't call it a true torch October for the PNW overall. Quite a bit cooler than the past couple years!

 

From mid month on, it definitely torched.

 

 

[Bryant]

How is that a dagger? Looks like it's talking about the NE, not the NW.

He said its a dagger because the article mentioned the NE getting colder due to PV orientation. Colder NE = warmer NW

[stuffradio]

Let's all ignore that fact. It will help morale as we endure this torch.

Let's not get carried away. We're still trying to endure this rain first!

[HighlandExperience]

[Tundra]

New JMA weeklies look very nice for week 3 & 4, FWIW. Very 2013/14 esque with blocking from the GOA/AK into the Arctic.

There has been some hint on a few recent GFS runs that something could happen in that time frame.

 

That's fantastic news. There's no question that Blocking will occur over the GOA/AK. It's just a question now of when that will occur.

[Tundra]

You all should be rooting for it to get as warm as possible over the next couple weeks. Record warmth from late October - mid November has often been a harbinger of most excellent things later. Mainly for neutral/-ENSO years.

 

10/23/92 - broke tons of records, including a 77 at OLM, the latest they've ever been that warm

Late Oct/early Nov 1949 - epic fall heat wave

Early Nov 2006: very warm, lots of warm low records

Early Nov 2008: same thing

early Nov 2010: same thing

Early Nov 1990: also a record-setting warm spike

Late October/early Nov 1978 also had a couple very warm periods.

 

And even the recently mentioned 1908 had a major warm spell in early November. In fact, Clearbrook hit 69 on this very day in 1908, the latest they've ever been that warm.

 

Bring on the heat then until mid November!

[Phil]

He said its a dagger because the article mentioned the NE getting colder due to PV orientation. Colder NE = warmer NW

To be fair, I didn't see any mention of the NW. During the LIA, for example, a semipermanent -NAO/-EPO type pattern resulted in a cooling across the US.

[snow_wizard]

I can't believe the endless torch the models are showing. Torching which begets more torching...An endless theme for the past 2 1/2 years. 

 

We did have a lot of below normal days mid June through early October.

[snow_wizard]

He said its a dagger because the article mentioned the NE getting colder due to PV orientation. Colder NE = warmer NW

 

Not at all.  It's well established there was anomalous ridging over the NE Pacific during the LIA.  It is thought Alaska was actually warmer than present and the NW was colder.  Kind of like the Pacific version of the NAO.

[snow_wizard]

I wouldn't call it a true torch October for the PNW overall. Quite a bit cooler than the past couple years!

 

From mid month on, it definitely torched.

 

Last1mTDeptWRCC-NW.png

 

From an 850mb temperature perspective Oct was actually cool.  Entirely the fault of heavy cloud cover keeping minimums up.

[snow_wizard]

Brilliant journalism. The last sentence is especially compelling: The changes may just mean more layers to brave more brushes with bone-chilling Arctic air.

 

Very poorly written for sure.

 

Let's all ignore that fact. It will help morale as we endure this torch.

 

It's pretty plain to see the Cascades were actually colder than normal during October.  That is actually more of a true gauge of the actual pattern we were in.  We're fine.

[snow_wizard]

For those who are beelyaching about being in an endless torch pattern take a look at the 500mb compisite for mid June through October.  Looks pretty decent to me.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

For those who are beelyaching about being in an endless torch pattern take a look at the 500mb compisite for mid June through October.  Looks pretty decent to me.

 

 

I am sure that won't move all winter.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For those who are beelyaching about being in an endless torch pattern take a look at the 500mb compisite for mid June through October.  Looks pretty decent to me.

 

At the surface it has been above normal. 

[snow_wizard]

At the surface it has been above normal. 

 

IMO the upper levels are more important.  It has come down to details dictating surface temps.  In the winter we have to have a favorable 500mb pattern to get anything really good.  I think there is a lot of leftover warmth from the Nino that has made it harder for things to cool off.  That effect will diminish as time goes on.

[snow_wizard]

I guess I should post the composite for this year up until mid June so you can see how dramatically the 500mb pattern has improved since then.  Also keep in mind we are seeing what I had hoped for this month.  For some reason November is a month that often runs opposite of the current regime that is going on.  Not always, but quite often.

[westcoastexpat]

CPC going with the following analogs to guide this winter's forecast:

 

1983/84

1995/96

1950/51

2007/08

2013/14