November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

My gut is stil telling me the very end of November/very beginning of Dec!

 

Would fit with recent trends, for sure.

[DareDuck]

Wish there was a way to post photos without loading it to some site first. Got my first turns in off Tumalo mountain today. About 18-24" up top around 7700', was able to get down to 6500' or so before I had to start taking my skis on and off. Felt great back to be back on skis, even better when you earn your turns.

[Phil]

00z GFS definitely follows the 2010/11 progression, both globally and locally.

[Weather101]

The 0z GFS is just perfect. Solid -PNA after day 10, but it doesn't too carried away. We don't want it to get too crazy too early.

Lol so what if this " too early" thing you're worrying about turns into no cold or snow at all? Just take the cold and snow whenever it comes.

[DareDuck]

Think I got it, couldn't do it from my phone. Sorry if the pics are really big, but at least its really big pictures of snow!

[Gradient Keeper]

The 0z GFS is just perfect.  Solid -PNA after day 10, but it doesn't too carried away.  We don't want it to get too crazy too early.

00z GFS Ensembles also several steps in the right direction. Gulf of Alaska vortex is gone. Colder NW storms and warm/ridge anomaly 165-170 W. Ridge is relatively flat, but in a good place for amplification.

[snow_wizard]

Would fit with recent trends, for sure.

 

That's why we don't want it that early.  I'm fine with something like what's being depicted on the 0z GFS though.

[Gradient Keeper]

That's why we don't want it that early.  I'm fine with something like what's being depicted on the 0z GFS though.

I'd like to see colder air build to the north and widespread snow cover over BC/AB.... BUT it's a welcomed pattern change nonetheless.

[snow_wizard]

Lol so what if this " too early" thing you're worrying about turns into no cold or snow at all? Just take the cold and snow whenever it comes.

 

The answer is obvious.  Big stuff early isn't nearly as impressive as big stuff in the heart of the winter.  Recent history tells us if it hits hard early you can forget about January.  If we ease into cooler weather and gradually work toward something big we get a lot of warning shot type events before the really big stuff.  Early quickies are getting old.  Obviously a huge exception like 1896, 1955, or 1985 would always be welcome.

[snow_wizard]

I'd like to see colder air build to the north and widespread snow cover over BC/AB.... BUT it's a welcomed pattern change nonetheless.

 

Absolutely.  It's a nice place to build from.

[snow_wizard]

The little shot of chilly air in the near term is kind of interesting.  Quite a valley there!  Later on the operational and control model both drop well below zero on the 850s.

 

[snow_wizard]

00z GFS definitely follows the 2010/11 progression, both globally and locally.

 

I like that analog.  With a few tweaks that could have been a great one.  We needed the January event to actually happen, but at least it was close.

[snow_wizard]

The analog composite to the 0z GFS shows a complete height anomaly reversal from day 8 to day 11.  Pretty amazing to happen to that degree in 3 days.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 500mb composite analogs Day 8-14. Quite a change. Steps in the right direction absolutely. Correlation Score is very low though. Still, this fits with other models and what appears to be a trend for a pattern change.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

The analog composite to the 0z GFS shows a complete height reversal from day 8 to day 11.  Pretty amazing to happen to that degree in 3 days.

Absolutely. We both just posted the same thing as nearly the same time.

[TT-SEA]

The little shot of chilly air in the near term is kind of interesting. Quite a valley there! Later on the operational and control model both drop well below zero on the 850s.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

That 'valley' does not even get us down to normal. And we are right back to this crazy warmth by Monday. Even warmer per that graph above.

 

Unfortunate timing tomorrow with rain from start to finish.

 

Good news on the 00Z ECMWF is that at least the next 5 afternoons after tomorrow are dry and pleasant per the 00Z ECMWF coming out now. The only other rain event is now slated for Tuesday night.

 

I do feel like this warmth will lead to cold before the month is over.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty crazy warmth being shown for part of next week on the WRF.  Decent shot at 70+ in some places.  Big heat spikes like that in November are usually a sign a big blast is coming...especially when it happens with a Nina.

[snow_wizard]

Incredible list of years when you look at November record highs for Landsburg during neutral or cold ENSO years.  Just a few examples...

 

1919

1921

1932

1934

1949

1970

2010

 

I find it fascinating how November is the one month that has few record highs after 1975.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF seems to be on the same track as the GFS.  The lowest pressure over the NE Pacific by day 10 is around 1005mb.  GOA low saying bye bye.

[Gradient Keeper]

The ECMWF seems to be on the same track as the GFS.  The lowest pressure over the NE Pacific by day 10 is around 1005mb.  GOA low saying bye bye.

Yup!

[snow_wizard]

Just looking at a winter like 1921-22 shows what potential this climate really has.  14 inches of snow in November (in spite of the month being quite warm overall), followed by a cold / snowy January, and extreme lows of 16 in December, 6 in January, and 13 in February!  That's a winter that is hardly even talked about...

 

Stats are for Landsburg.

[Gradient Keeper]

Given the obvious improvements on the models/ensembles tonight I'm surprised that there isn't a frenzy of posts right now. At least a little.

[crf450ish]

Its chilly out at my place. 

[Bryant]

Given the obvious improvements on the models/ensembles tonight I'm surprised that there isn't a frenzy of posts right now. At least a little.

 

Nothing much to get excited about in my opinion. That west pac typhoon phasing with the jet is going to throw the models for a loop. With the tropical equator cooling however, the MJO is going to wake up and push across the pacific. This will favor a westward shift of the NPAC low, shifting the mean ridge over the west, allowing troughs to push into the east. We won't see any significant chance of cold air until propagatory forcing shifts back into the EHEM, and even then, it's unclear what will take place. Just my personal opinion on how the pattern will play out at least 

[Phil]

00z GFS Ensembles also several steps in the right direction. Gulf of Alaska vortex is gone. Colder NW storms and warm/ridge anomaly 165-170 W. Ridge is relatively flat, but in a good place for amplification.

Flat NPAC ridges are dangerous to play around with because they can often self sustain the loading pattern for a GOA vortex regimen. That's exactly how we got into this mess (obviously a pattern like that is reflective of larger scale problems, but still the idea is the same).

[Phil]

Just looking at a winter like 1921-22 shows what potential this climate really has. 14 inches of snow in November (in spite of the month being quite warm overall), followed by a cold / snowy January, and extreme lows of 16 in December, 6 in January, and 13 in February! That's a winter that is hardly even talked about...

 

Stats are for Landsburg.

I'll sign onto 1921-22. That was the knickerbocker winter.

[Phil]

Yeah, huge pattern change on the 00z ECMWF/EPS, arising intraseasonal (MJO et al) forcing. We'll have to see if we revert back to the GOA vortex/+PNA after the MJO dies, or if this represents a more significant pattern shift.

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah, huge pattern change on the 00z ECMWF/EPS, arising intraseasonal (MJO et al) forcing. We'll have to see if we revert back to the GOA vortex/+PNA after the MJO dies, or if this represents a more significant pattern shift.

6z GFS is shaping up pretty well. I'm just looking for a pattern change. If that leads to amplification around the sweet spot 150-160 W, that's awesome. If not, anything is better than a ridge overhead in my opinion.

[westcoastexpat]

Nothing much to get excited about in my opinion. That west pac typhoon phasing with the jet is going to throw the models for a loop. With the tropical equator cooling however, the MJO is going to wake up and push across the pacific. This will favor a westward shift of the NPAC low, shifting the mean ridge over the west, allowing troughs to push into the east. We won't see any significant chance of cold air until propagatory forcing shifts back into the EHEM, and even then, it's unclear what will take place. Just my personal opinion on how the pattern will play out at least 

 

Winter cancel?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 06z GFS gives me my location our first snow in about 2 weeks...Outlier for now, but still nice to see. 

[MossMan]

Several members dropping below that magical line later in the month!!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

 

Oh and...it's raining!!!

[Bryant]

Winter cancel?

Nah, I've been wrong all year, don't plan on changing that now

[TT-SEA]

Several members dropping below that magical line later in the month!!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

 

Oh and...it's raining!!!

 

 

Raining here too!

 

A little easier to take knowing that most of the next week looks pretty nice.   

[TT-SEA]

.27 at SEA in just the last hour.   

[stuffradio]

I'm in a rainfall warning right now for just over 2 inches of rain. It's pretty calm right now, but I was getting torrential rain earlier. If I get anywhere near that, I will be somewhere at between 4 and 5 inches of rain this month already.

[MossMan]

Raining here too!

 

A little easier to take knowing that most of the next week looks pretty nice.

That's good...however the timing has been terrible for me to do anything outside on the days that I am actually home!

[MossMan]

Nah, I've been wrong all year, don't plan on changing that now

Don't change a thing! Is this going to be your first winter in your new location?

[TT-SEA]

That's good...however the timing has been terrible for me to do anything outside on the days that I am actually home!

 

 

Should get easier this week.      Just went through the Canadian and GFS...  both show almost completely dry weather during the daytime hours through Friday (after today of course).

[Bryant]

Don't change a thing! Is this going to be your first winter in your new location?

Yup! Have always lived in Ferndale or Bellingham so it will be interesting to compare locations this year

[stuffradio]

I haven't officially measured it, but the overflow tank looks like it's getting close to where it was on November 2, close to 2" of rain.