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November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Gradient Keeper

By Gradient Keeper
in West of the Rockies

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Front Ranger
Front Ranger

Did I mention this winter is going to be epic for our Canadian friends?

Front Ranger
Front Ranger

I'm serious. A lot of signs point to a northern-favored winter, especially for snowfall.

liquidsnow
liquidsnow

I bought a new TV.   The last time I bought a TV? December 2008. The time before that? December 1996.   You're welcome.

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Tundra Newbie

Tundra

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Everyone is setting themselves up to get burned by that model. It did really well during the summer, but that means nothing for this winter. It reminds of when I first starting looking at models and the GFS just happened to nail the Dec 1998 cold wave two weeks ahead of time. The next time it showed a big cold wave I just took it for granted it would be right...

The good thing is that it changed a lot from last month so it might change again next month. However I just don't like the high positive anomalies centered where it is. December looks decent to me, maybe get something similar to 1983.

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Tundra Newbie

Tundra

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Care to explain why else we should write off the 2nd half of winter?

I'm not writing it off completely. I was just pointing out what the CESM was showing. However January's have really been subpar for many decades now in the PNW except for very early January 2004. February had been a better month, particularly for my location.

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Tundra Newbie

Tundra

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Stick a fork in it on November 8th?? :lol:

 

Again, it could be a warm and wet winter and we still have a memorable week of cold and snow.

I was being sarcastic based on the horrible model runs that recently came out.

 

There's no doubt that can happen. December 1983 is what I'm thinking right now.

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Tundra Newbie

Tundra

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Lol, no reason to take it that far. One great event can make an entire winter worthwhile, IMO.

That's true. I will take your Winter last year if I can experience your epic Blizzard.

 

The newest edition of the NCAR_CESM seems to also agree with the EURO not only with warmer temperatures this Winter for the PNW but also a wetter than normal Winter.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NCAR_CESM_ensemble_prate_us_season1.png

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stuffradio Newbie

stuffradio

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I was being a little sarcastic.

 

As far as I can tell the Euro weeklies and monthlies have been pretty bad this year. Phil was a big proponent of that narrative much of the time.

That's the problem, if you're only a little sarcastic, it goes over my head. You have to go full on sarcastic for me to get it.

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

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I figured.

 

Still. Decent amount of cloud cover for such a ridiculously warm day.

Warm days are much more airmass driven than sunshine driven at this point in the year.

 

In fact I would wager that a lot of our record highs between November and mid-February have happened when it's either cloudy or raining.

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

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I figured.

 

Still. Decent amount of cloud cover for such a ridiculously warm day.

 

Eh, a mostly sunny day (like Bellingham has) is usually just as warm as a 100% sunny day. Getting cloudcover over a certain location for an hour or two wouldn't affect highs much at all, unless it was just for the warmest part of the afternoon.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

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Pretty fitting that we are seeing record breaking warmth on a day we are about to elect one of two people who will probably do very little to curb global warming the next four years.

 

Obama didn't do much to curb it (in fact CO2 rose faster over his time in office than any previous president). Fitting that his inauguration day was quite chilly! 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/washington-dc-presidential-inauguration-weather-history/2013/01/16/5def1200-5ff3-11e2-b05a-605528f6b712_blog.html

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

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Obama didn't do much to curb it (in fact CO2 rose faster over his time in office than any previous president). Fitting that his inauguration day was quite chilly!

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/washington-dc-presidential-inauguration-weather-history/2013/01/16/5def1200-5ff3-11e2-b05a-605528f6b712_blog.html

No he did not! Good thing it's a liberal conspiracy anyway. :)

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