November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Could be worse.

 

Yeah the timing is sped up compared to the 12z. It's really good for my location in terms of wet snow. BUT most people don't care about if it is snowing at 1600'. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Could be worse.

Just wait... it will be.

[GHweatherChris]

Selfishly I am glad things are beginning a trend the other way, we will be in So Cal from the 5th-9th and it would suck to miss out on something snowy while gone, the cold can wait for a couple weeks, would be fine by me.

[Trainwreck]

Just not enough amplification on this run.

Story of our winters.

 

Btw, Andrew, what is your elevation?

[Phil]

Drunk uncle is sober today.

[snow_wizard]

The good thing about this run is it shows a baroclinic band SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR ON THE north side for snow.  Thickness sags below 522 for SEA before day 10.  Still a realistic shot at lowland snow with this.

 

D**n caps lock key!

[The Swamp]

Selfishly I am glad things are beginning a trend the other way, we will be in So Cal from the 5th-9th and it would suck to miss out on something snowy while gone, the cold can wait for a couple weeks, would be fine by me.

 

And it will be way better in January.

[stuffradio]

Selfishly I am glad things are beginning a trend the other way, we will be in So Cal from the 5th-9th and it would suck to miss out on something snowy while gone, the cold can wait for a couple weeks, would be fine by me.

One run isn't a trend. So many ups and downs on here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Through day 10 it is a pretty disappointing run. 

[snow_wizard]

Selfishly I am glad things are beginning a trend the other way, we will be in So Cal from the 5th-9th and it would suck to miss out on something snowy while gone, the cold can wait for a couple weeks, would be fine by me.

 

Some indications late month could our time for real fun.  Maybe just some teases before that.

[Phil]

Tropical forcing much different this run. Uplift centered right along that 120E marker, which in a +QBO is usually no bueno.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Story of our winters.

 

Btw, Andrew, what is your elevation?

1600'

[snow_wizard]

One run isn't a trend. So many ups and downs on here.

 

Yup.  The pattern is unmistakably getting better.  Good enough for now.

[MossMan]

I thought all the ensembles were improved today...but it's winter cancel anyway apparently!

[luvssnow_spokane]

One run isn't a trend. So many ups and downs on here.

A trend has gotta start somewhere... this is as good a place as any and would be super consistent with past events. Go team!

[Weather101]

Some indications late month could our time for real fun. Maybe just some teases before that.

Teases lol

[Weather101]

Yeah the timing is sped up compared to the 12z. It's really good for my location in terms of wet snow. BUT most people don't care about if it is snowing at 1600'.

Send pictures so everyone can feel included lol

[Phil]

Yikes, second anticyclonic wavebreak just fails altogether.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well it does look like a lot of mountain snow coming up. 

[snow_wizard]

I thought all the ensembles were improved today...but it's winter cancel anyway apparently!

 

Pretty irritating how easily people throw in the towel.  I couldn't lose on this from my perspective.  I wanted it to wait longer, but if it didn't I would have been happy anyway.  I still hope we see a quick hitter though.  

[Phil]

Failure upstream will probably result in a Hudson Bay vortex regime on this run. It's just one run, however, so obviously the tendency over the last few runs could be a blip of sorts.

[snow_wizard]

Teases lol

 

Still a good chance you will see snow.

[Weather101]

Failure upstream will probably result in a Hudson Bay vortex regime on this run. It's just one run, however, so obviously the tendency over the last few runs could be a blip of sorts.

So we wait till March? ☃

[Weather101]

Still a good chance you will see snow.

Yeah I think we should be okay up here. Lots of things can change between today and next week.

[luvssnow_spokane]

So we wait till March? ☃

#marchsnowmadness! Bring it!! Just warm enough to really enjoy it

[snow_wizard]

#marchsnowmadness! Bring it!! Just warm enough to really enjoy it

 

No question we will get hit before that.  I never understand why people get like this so early in the season.

[Phil]

So we wait till March? ☃

If the Arctic dump around the Holidays misses you to the east, then I think the next opportunity will come towards the end of January, into February, given what looks like a ridgy period during much of early/mid January (IMO).

[Deweydog]

Guys, stop upsetting Jim.

[luvssnow_spokane]

No question we will get hit before that. I never understand why people get like this so early in the season.

So we do not have a complete meltdown at the end of season when all hope is lost. And yes there is a lot of time left.

[MossMan]

Guys, stop upsetting Jim.

I'm upset as well! My Christmas lights are up..it's supposed to snow now!!

[Phil]

Yikes, second anticyclonic wavebreak just fails altogether.

So yeah, that reinforcing wavebreak is super-crucial to the progression thereafter. This run was already pure s**t by d7.

 

If it fails completely (as the 18z depicts), then it's over. Dagger.

[MossMan]

So yeah, that reinforcing wavebreak is super-crucial to the progression thereafter. This run went to s**t by d7/d8.

 

If it fails completely (as the 18z depicts), then it's over. Dagger.

Thanks Phil!!!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

So yeah, that reinforcing wavebreak is super-crucial to the progression thereafter. This run was already pure s**t by d7.

 

If it fails completely (as the 18z depicts), then it's over. Dagger.

Just keeping it real.

[Phil]

Thanks Phil!!!!

Could very well be a blip.

[The Swamp]

We still have December, January, February and March for cold and snow.

[Gradient Keeper]

I didn't even bother watching 18z unfold. I just took a look now. Very drunk run. Which really makes one wonder? Okay, what the hell is the Uncle up to... Given how good 12z GEM/ECMWF ensembles were and now you throw this load of crap on us. Lol. Drunkards Ensembles will probably be amazing considering how dismal his operational is. I would not expect to see 00z runs tonight to look anything like this.

 

[ Model Countdown ]

Next up....

*00z GFS in 4 hours 16 minutes

00z GEM/CMC in 5 hours 16 minutes

00z ECMWF in 6 hours 33 minutes

[Weather101]

No question we will get hit before that. I never understand why people get like this so early in the season.

We are really just joking around tbh lol

[Weather101]

#marchsnowmadness! Bring it!! Just warm enough to really enjoy it

March 2nd 2 feet of snow #bookit

[Front Ranger]

18z ensembles are too. Fortunately, we're talking about the 18z.

[Weather101]

We still have December, January, February and March for cold and snow.

Forgot April