Deweydog Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 ZzzzzzzHmmmm... A new, vague acronym. I'm intrigued. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 ZzzzzzzVery helpful, thanks! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Enjoy it while it lasts, because this "warning shot" may be our "only shot"! I highly doubt it. This is all part of the plan. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 18Z now looks like a snow event for me Sunday night into Monday, maybe some slush for Vancouver BC. Either way, looks like a decent warning shot if we get many more events the rest of the winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Oh God... Now that looks like lots of fun! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112818/gfs_asnow_nwus_36.pngLooks great over my house!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Pics for the less fortunate?I didn't snap any, sorry. I will try to take a few when it snows again in a few days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Looking at the ensembles there are about 1/4 of the members that want to speed up the timing even more...Lots of spread in the long range 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 12z EPS: Encouraging to see how many cold to frigid ensembles members. A lot more than previous runs. This isn't over yet, although I'd lean towards any chances of appreciable "cold air" and threats of low land snows occurring days 7-11. [ Model Countdown ]Next up....*00z GFS in 3 hours 27 minutes00z GEM in 4 hours 27 minutes00z ECMWF in 5 hours 44 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Looks great over my house!!Hmmm. Looks like we are getting close to the "red zone" there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Hmmm. Looks like we are getting close to the "red zone" there!Indeed! Going to be a fun week of tracking! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Looks like the ensemble is settling on a solution now. Cold enough for snow and decently chilly for a few days. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 The ECMWF weeklies are actually pretty good. The control model shows us colder than a brass witch's t i t from Christmas through early January while the mean indicates above normal heights over the GOA / Aleutians for much of the first half of January. Something that has been very hard to come by the past 30+ years. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Clicking through all the models, the NAVGEM would sure be a thing of beauty for northern Washington 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 ^Blizzard? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 A say still a couple weeks out for anything big. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Clicking through all the models, the NAVGEM would sure be a thing of beauty for northern Washington About as much chance to be struck by lightning as having a low that strong track over SW WA in this case. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 A say still a couple weeks out for anything big. Certainly a realistic shot at something white next week though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 About as much chance to be struck by lightning as having a low that strong track over SW WA in this case.But if it did, what would it be comparable to? Honestly. Analog wise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Today was pretty surreal in my book. Walked the kids to the bus stop at 7am, dense fog and a one inch layer of snow on the ground @ 30 degrees, just enough snow to not be able to see the grass yet able to make the pine tree limbs sag. Fog didn't flush out till around noon or so and when it did, the sky was bright blue and sunny and boy did the temp jump up fast. Jumped from about 33ish to 40 within an hour and the snow melted pretty quick. Still have some patches around in shaded areas. Everything melted and slid off the roof of house and shop. And then as soon as the sun went down the fog didn't waste anytime at all returning. Clouds came out of nowhere and the only stitch of sunshine that was visible was that on the horizon looking south west (towards the tri-cities from my locale). I really need to buy my wife an expensive camera to capture these moments. Tyler Mode....any suggestions on cameras? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 About as much chance to be struck by lightning as having a low that strong track over SW WA in this case. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 ...and the 12z CFS leads the way. Lol Day 8http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016112812/192/500h_anom.conus.png Day 9http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016112812/216/850th.conus.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 I highly doubt it. This is all part of the plan.Mother Nature has no plan. Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 The station of the gods is officially out of the running for warmest November on record. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 The station of the gods is officially out of the running for warmest November on record.Warning shot Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Mother Nature has no plan. You're too confined in your thinking on this stuff. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 The meme matches the emoji you posted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Seeing some good indications for cold later in December and into January on various models now. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Seeing some good indications for cold later in December and into January on various models now.In Jim we trust! I hope you are right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 You're too confined in your thinking on this stuff.So... The cold air must be thinking " oh we will hit them for sure later" there's no guarantee of anything so no I'm not.. I want snow and cold but I'm not going to get everyone's hopes up. Mother Nature does what she wants. Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Seeing some good indications for cold later in December and into January on various models now.Jim, it's four weeks away. No one can see that far unless you're joe Pesci in casino. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 The station of the gods is officially out of the running for warmest November on record.Only took 28 days to do it! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Jim, it's four weeks away. No one can see that far unless you're joe Pesci in casino.I was discussing this time frame for cold a month ago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 I was discussing this time frame for cold a month ago I was a year ago... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 The 12z, 18z GFS after studying things further were actually much closer to an Arctic blast than I realized. As the ridge is being pushed from 155 W to 145 W we basically only need that process to slow down, or for the ridge to "stand up" around 145-140 W for only 24 hours that would allow the arctic trough to dig more efficiently southward for at least a backdoor blast via the Gorge. That's ALL we need to see on future runs. Given the progressive nature of the pattern on the 12z GFS/ECMWF that might be hard to ask for. The GEM featured less of a progressive pattern and a more realistic chance of arctic air as did many of the 12z EPS members. 00z GFS in 58 minutes!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Only took 28 days to do it! Actually dipped below the record point a couple days ago. Regardless, those that were fearing 1949-50 might lose its place in the history books as the warmest November/coldest January combo can breathe deep sigh of relief. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 The 12z, 18z GFS after studying things further were actually much closer to an Arctic blast than I realized. As the ridge is being pushed from 155 W to 145 W we basically only need that process to slow down, or for the ridge to "stand up" around 145-140 W for only 24 hours that would allow the arctic trough to dig more efficiently southward for at least a backdoor blast via the Gorge. That's ALL we need to see on future runs. Given the progressive nature of the pattern on the 12z GFS/ECMWF that might be hard to ask for. The GEM featured less of a progressive pattern and a more realistic chance of arctic air as did many of the 12z EPS members. 00z GFS in 58 minutes!!!! Things are looking up. 3 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Things are looking up. c640x360_25.jpgLol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Only 10 days away!!!!Timing has moved up. Almost all models are showing a modified Arctic Blast with Snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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