Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[Tom]

12z GFS still showing a decent clipper to close out the month of January...

 

 

[Niko]

@Tom

Not a bad looking map. I am in the 2-4inch range. At this point, I'll take anything.

[Tom]

I got a good feeling the Feb thread is gonna be hot to trott!  I'll start one up in the next day or two.  Plenty of wintry systems to track as we flip the calendar.

[Tony]

I don't see anything too exciting in the long range on the GFS but hoping it will change on future runs.

[Tom]

I don't see anything too exciting in the long range on the GFS but hoping it will change on future runs.

Agree, that's why I look at ensembles in the extended range. Individual op runs are highly variable in the evolving changing wx pattern.

[Tom]

GEFS have been slowly shifting the precip from the clipper next week south over the last couple days and now pretty much targeting N MN/WI/MI...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017012512/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_23.png

[gosaints]

Been awhile since we had a whole winter that almost comoletely avoided supression... On the table

[gimmesnow]

Looks like we'll be getting cold enough to at least have the ski hills blow snow. It's brutal here, it feels like end of February on my little midwestern ski hill. Riding on an an ice cube covered in snow cone isn't much fun. At this point, all I want is some single digit nights before President's Day so they can fix the ski hills. Looks like we'll get that at the very least by the start of Feb, as long as this block keeps going the way it is.

[jaster220]

GEFS have been slowly shifting the precip from the clipper next week south over the last couple days and now pretty much targeting N MN/WI/MI...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017012512/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_23.png

 

As of this morning, GRR was still thinking this will be a NMI snow maker. But, I am liking that trend, just need the SLP to track far enough south to get some forcing down my way. The last Idk how many years, SWMI has kinda been screwed on a lot of clippers tracking right over our heads delivering the goods to SEMI. This looks to do the same unless it changes even more so as we get in range.

[Niko]

That shows some precip amounts of snowfall for SEMI, even SWMI.

[Tom]

00z GEFS predicted snow depth change beginning the following weekend...showing a large increase in the heartland and Lakes...

 

 

[Niko]

The good thing about the long range is that it stays cold. No big warm ups are expected. Now we need a good storm track and a favorable pattern.

[Tom]

18z GFS painting a nice snow storm on Super Bowl weekend...

[Tom]

18z GEFS trending brighter for the Clipper next week...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017012518/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_22.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017012518/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_24.png

[jaster220]

That shows some precip amounts of snowfall for SEMI, even SWMI.

The precip south or even under the SLP track could be sleet, frozen rain, or even just rain depending on the thermal layers though. Have to wait n see..

[jaster220]

18z GFS painting a nice snow storm on Super Bowl weekend...

That period bears watching. Small northern stream system 1 day before could get pushed south a bit and merge with the southern wave for real wow factor!

[bud2380]

18z GFS and 12z EPS both show a big storm in the central us around the day 10-11 time frame. Could be our next one to track. Well see what it shows over the next few days

[Tom]

18z GFS and 12z EPS both show a big storm in the central us around the day 10-11 time frame. Could be our next one to track. Well see what it shows over the next few days

Indeed. It fits the LRC and I have been particularly watching for the models to pick up on it a while back when IndianaJohn asked me if there would be a chance of a storm on Super Bowl Sunday. We'll see how it evolves. Do you have a snow map for comparison reasons?

[OKwx2k4]

Indeed. It fits the LRC and I have been particularly watching for the models to pick up on it a while back when IndianaJohn asked me if there would be a chance of a storm on Super Bowl Sunday. We'll see how it evolves. Do you have a snow map for comparison reasons?

I've not really been that interested in the weather for much of the last 20 days (my winter is pretty much over I think) but could you tell me which dates that storm correlates with?

[Tom]

I've not really been that interested in the weather for much of the last 20 days (my winter is pretty much over I think) but could you tell me which dates that storm correlates with?

Right around the Dec 9th-11th period...

[St Paul Storm]

That 18z GFS snow map is one of the ugliest 264 hr maps you'll ever see for MI, WI, MN and SD in the middle of winter.

[bud2380]

[Tom]

I've not really been that interested in the weather for much of the last 20 days (my winter is pretty much over I think) but could you tell me which dates that storm correlates with?

TBH, the Dec 6th period also looks familiar with a northern stream storm and southern stream piece.  I've heard from Gary before that sometimes storms skip a beat in a different cycle and storms can merge from time to time if the dates are close enough.

[Tom]

IMG_0521.PNG

Ya, that is a pretty darn big storm!  TBH, the way this season has gone I'd rather be on the north side of a storm this far out than on the southern end.  

[jaster220]

IMG_0521.PNG

Ummm. Yes pls

[jaster220]

TBH, the Dec 6th period also looks familiar with a northern stream storm and southern stream piece.  I've heard from Gary before that sometimes storms skip a beat in a different cycle and storms can merge from time to time if the dates are close enough.

GFS has 1 storm missing us south 5/6th, then hits SMI good around the 10th fwiw..

[Tom]

00z GFS...advertising a strong Great Lakes clipper...a little more widespread snow...prob will start a thread for this one tomorrow...FWIW, the accumulating snows keep shifting a little bit farther south each day.  Looks like the lakes enhance snowfall also.

[Niko]

GFS has 1 storm missing us south 5/6th, then hits SMI good around the 10th fwiw..

[Niko]

00z GFS...advertising a strong Great Lakes clipper...a little more widespread snow...prob will start a thread for this one tomorrow...FWIW, the accumulating snows keep shifting a little bit farther south each day.  Looks like the lakes enhance snowfall also.

A little more south and I am in business.

[Tom]

A little more south and I am in business.

MI will more than likely see some long fetched lake induced bands coming off the lake, possibly reaching DTW area with this type of set up.

[Tom]

00z GFS still identifying a strong storm on Super Bowl Sunday...

 

@Okwx...now this particular run looks quite similar to the pattern back on Dec 6th...here are the maps from the 00z GFS...notice the Gulf energy and the northern piece merging into one big storm...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012600/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_39.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012600/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_42.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012600/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png

 

 

Now check out what the pattern looked like back on Dec 6th...notice the northern piece near the Dakotas and southern coming out of TX...

 

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/170126045229.gif

 

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/170126045328.gif

[Tom]

00z GGEM...from the Clipper...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012600/gem_asnow_ncus_27.png

[OKwx2k4]

00z GFS still identifying a strong storm on Super Bowl Sunday...

 

@Okwx...now this particular run looks quite similar to the pattern back on Dec 6th...here are the maps from the 00z GFS...notice the Gulf energy and the northern piece merging into one big storm...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012600/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_39.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012600/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_42.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012600/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png

 

 

Now check out what the pattern looked like back on Dec 6th...notice the northern piece near the Dakotas and southern coming out of TX...

 

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/170126045229.gif

 

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/170126045328.gif

That may be a step or 3 in the right direction.

[Tom]

That may be a step or 3 in the right direction.

Just read Gary's blog and the Super Bowl storm is related to the Dec 6th-7th system and the maps I posted above.

[Tom]

CFSv2 Weeklies are seeing the beginning of the LRC's cold and stormy pattern beginning Week 2, specifically on Super Bowl weekend....

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_latest.NAprec.gif

 

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_latest.NAsfcT.gif

[Tom]

00z EPS starting to hone in on the Super Bowl storm...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017012600/ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_11.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017012600/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_11.png

 

 

Due to higher confidence of this system forming, I'm thinking we will be starting a storm thread earlier than usual.  Let's see how it trends over the next few days into the weekend.

[hlcater]

00z EPS starting to hone in on the Super Bowl storm...

 

 

 

 

 

Due to higher confidence of this system forming, I'm thinking we will be starting a storm thread earlier than usual.  Let's see how it trends over the next few days into the weekend.

I'd still wait until day 6 or maybe even day 7, but a lot can change since this is still a day 10 storm.

[Tom]

I'd still wait until day 6 or maybe even day 7, but a lot can change since this is still a day 10 storm.

Yes, I'm going to see it trends still hold through the weekend...

[Tony]

I like the track so far because the way this winter has gone you know it will be cutting farther north. How far NW is the question and hopefully not too much of a cutter.

[Tom]

Both the GFS/EURO are trying to spit out some sort of over-running snow event for the plains region on GHD.  I was anticipating the models to pick up on this and the 12z GFS is starting to show it.  Let's see how it evolves as there is a lot of PAC moisture that will be feeding off of the Big PAC system just offshore of the west coast.