Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[Tony]

Starting to look interesting

[Tom]

12z GFS for the Super Bowl weekend system...

 

 

[Tom]

Starting to look interesting

Ya, I look the fact more blocking in CA is showing up which is what the ensembles have been steadfast on...

[Tom]

The 12z GGEM is also showing a large scale storm the following weekend.  Certainly looking like we will have a large scale impacting system.

[Snowlover76]

12z GFS for the Super Bowl weekend system...

Gross

[gosaints]

Gross

looks beautiful

[GDR]

Ha ha

[gosaints]

The next central US cutter???

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012612/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

[jaster220]

00z EPS starting to hone in on the Super Bowl storm...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017012600/ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_11.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017012600/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_11.png

 

 

Due to higher confidence of this system forming, I'm thinking we will be starting a storm thread earlier than usual.  Let's see how it trends over the next few days into the weekend.

 

It better dig a bit from that position or we're gonna have another cutter going over our heads.

 

I like the track so far because the way this winter has gone you know it will be cutting farther north. How far NW is the question and hopefully not too much of a cutter.

 

From your lips to the Euro's ears, thus see below. EPS has shown us all winter a great initial placement of the SLP down in the panhandles, only to have zero help in the form of cold HP's to keep the things from cutting right over those of us in the Lakes. New month, old pattern??

 

The next central US cutter???

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012612/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

[GDR]

Looks like a beaut Clark!

[St Paul Storm]

looks beautiful

This

[BrianJK]

Ya, that is a pretty darn big storm!  TBH, the way this season has gone I'd rather be on the north side of a storm this far out than on the southern end.  

 

Agreed - lets see how hard this thing ends up cutting.  If the blocking that you've been mentioning doesn't show up, people in the Dakota's will be greeted to another gift yet again.

[Tom]

The next central US cutter???

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012612/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

You think it's right?

[gosaints]

You think it's right?

Until something different occurs hard to ignore

[OKwx2k4]

The one after it should be good for me. This one was a sad drizzle fest back in December.

[Tom]

Until something different occurs hard to ignore

It already has though with the last couple storms. I went against all odds and predicted they wouldn't cut and that's what happened. My expectation is for this to eject into southern plains and then head E/NE but not a Dakotas special.

[Tom]

Climatologically speaking, we will be entering the period when the jet stream is the strongest.  Systems tend to track farther south around this time of year anyway.  The pressure pattern on the 12z Euro is likely wrong in southern Canada going against its own ensembles and the other global models.  Back in December, we had a strong PV and during this forecast period it is non existent as heights are rising near Alaska/NW NAMER and near the Pole.  There are certainly reasons to believe this storm will track on the southern end of current 12z Euro Op Day 9-10 guidance.

[Tom]

12z EPS...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017012612/ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017012612/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_10.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017012612/ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_11.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017012612/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_11.png

 

 

 

Let's see how this system evolves...I'm sure this will be an exciting storm to track....

[Snowlover76]

Can't wait for Chicago to steal another NE snowstorm.

[gosaints]

It already has though with the last couple storms. I went against all odds and predicted they wouldn't cut and that's what happened. My expectation is for this to eject into southern plains and then head E/NE but not a Dakotas special.

not a dakotas special but can see the low crossing lake michigan somewhere

[Tom]

18z GFS....

 

 

[GDR]

Now we're cookin

[SnowO]

Snow76, give it a rest already!!

[bud2380]

Overnight models were not friendly. All pretty much backed off on a strong storm. Loooong ways to go though. Even the almighty euro had a run last week that completely dropped this last storm and then came right back with it, so no reason for alarm yet imo

[gosaints]

The trend in the teleconnections is not our friendhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

[Tom]

Overnight Euro run still showing a storm next weekend but not sure how the snow maps look...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012700/ecmwf_T850_us_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012700/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

[jaster220]

Overnight Euro run still showing a storm next weekend but not sure how the snow maps look...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012700/ecmwf_T850_us_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012700/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

 

And some GEFS members have been amped going up to N. Lk. Huron/Georgian Bay area like your previous Op maps show. I know EC weenies are kinda conceding that most tele's favor an App's or EGL's vs a ECoastal storm. They're best hopes are based on some kind of x-fer scenario if the storm can't cut due to blocking (1030mb HP location). 

 

BSR peeps say that it's supposed to x-fer W to E, but that could be from much further north than typically, since this season's cold is not overwhelming.

[Niko]

At least now we have cold air in place, so that's a good thing. All we need now is a storm to blow up in the right spot and blocking to be in place and other teleconnections to be in their proper placement and we are in business.

[jaster220]

At least now we have cold air in place, so that's a good thing. All we need now is a storm to blow up in the right spot and blocking to be in place and other teleconnections to be in their proper placement and we are in business.

 

One of my dad's fave sayings you just don't hear much anymore. He grew up in the 20's n 30's when that was a common saying in America - the land of opportunity! If your parents are still alive, consider yourself lucky, even if they drive you nuts sometimes!

[Tom]

00z EPS snowfall over next 2 weeks...

 

 

[midwest buildit]

Um. Where exactly did our winter/snow go? Lol So tired of cloudy cool crappy days. Havnt seen the sun in what feels like forever.

[Niko]

00z EPS snowfall over next 2 weeks...

I will gladly accept 6-10" IMBY.

[Niko]

Um. Where exactly did our winter/snow go? Lol So tired of cloudy cool crappy days. Havnt seen the sun in what feels like forever.

Same here. I saw peeks of sunshine yesterday and man, that felt great. Now, back to cloudy skies again. As for snow chances, February looks better than January, so we will see the white stuff very soon. Its only a matter of time.

[Tom]

12z GGEM looks very similar to what the 00z Euro looked like last night.  GFS still having problems with forming a storm.  I usually don't like posting long range GGEM maps but I will do it this time due to somewhat agreement towards the 00z Euro.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012712/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012712/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012712/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png

[midwest buildit]

I did get to see the sun while i was in Wisconsin over the weekend. Walked out onto the balcony sat morning and was like wholy cow turn that off it hurts. Lol. But it disappeared a couple hours later.

[jaster220]

00z EPS snowfall over next 2 weeks...

 

Not refined enough to pick up on much off of Lk Michigan even though it has some off of Erie and Ontario. Hmmm

[jaster220]

12z GGEM looks very similar to what the 00z Euro looked like last night.  GFS still having problems with forming a storm.  I usually don't like posting long range GGEM maps but I will do it this time due to somewhat agreement towards the 00z Euro.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012712/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012712/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012712/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png

 

GFS keeps showing another SW in southern Canada vs. the other models showing a nice HP there. GFS = weak rainer until that gets figured out. That'll sort out as we get through the weekend clipper parade into Tues/Wed clipper

[gosaints]

The EURO lost it too?

[bud2380]

Storm is gone on the euro. At least any appreciable one

[gosaints]

When it gets chilly its relatively dry.  Seems to be the theme of the winter