gosaints Posted February 15, 2017 Report Share Posted February 15, 2017 Like clockwork nothing can line up this winter for most. As soon as the pacific looks like it is gonna play ball we get an positive AO right though the end of the month And if the EURO is right some of you guys can go to the beach next week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 15, 2017 Report Share Posted February 15, 2017 Good lord the GFS and GEFS snowballed the AO forecast a couple weeks ago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 15, 2017 Report Share Posted February 15, 2017 thins has to drive skiing crazy http://wgntv.com/2017/02/15/its-been-60-days-since-chicago-has-had-an-inch-of-snow/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 15, 2017 Report Share Posted February 15, 2017 thins has to drive skiing crazy http://wgntv.com/2017/02/15/its-been-60-days-since-chicago-has-had-an-inch-of-snow/That's crazy! What's the season snow total at right now?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 15, 2017 Report Share Posted February 15, 2017 That's crazy! What's the season snow total at right now?? Not sure I think they had 2 6+ storms in early december though which makes there season that much more unbelievable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 15, 2017 Report Share Posted February 15, 2017 Call it what you want, last year we reached seasonal average snowfall here. That's 3 times the amount we have had this year!I went back and looked at Lincoln's season snow totals. I looked at the years with single digit snow totals and compared it to the next year, here is what I got..... 67-68: 7.2" of snow, the next snow season brought 40" 65-66: 9" fell, the next year 22.8" 53-54: 9.8" of snow, the next year 23.6" Here is my favorite, 63-64 had 13", the next year 42.1" of snow, 26" of it fell in February! Needless to say, I'm thinking we finish in single digit snow totals; next year we will see at least double. Never has there been back to back single digit snow totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 15, 2017 Report Share Posted February 15, 2017 Quite the blizzard for Western SD/ND on the Euro. 24-30+ showing up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 15, 2017 Report Share Posted February 15, 2017 Quite the blizzard for Western SD/ND on the Euro. 24-30+ showing upWash rinse repeat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 18Z GFS has 35" in northeast SD with the storm around the 24-25th. Unbelievable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 No bueno on that Euro map. After upper 50s to near 60 this weekend into early next week I'm calling it quits on winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 No bueno on that Euro map. After upper 50s to near 60 this weekend into early next week I'm calling it quits on winter.You actually have a good chance compared to most of the sub forum in getting at least something out of a Dakota special, but I know where your coming from! End the misery already! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 Hope we can make this up with some semi decent severe action in the spring, been awhile since we've had a really good event here in E IA, but maybe my expectations are too high Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 GFS further south. Blasts Nebraska to Wisconsin. As usual the low tracks right through Iowa. I think every major storm this winter has tracked through Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 8-9 days out though. Still time for this storm to disappear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 00z GFS...MSP special... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 With its sites set on lake of the woods Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 GGEM suppresses it way south with a 1044 high in southern Canada Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlp Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 I'm betting March is a good month for snow. The GFS has been showing a system around 3/1 for the last week consistently. My guess is the first 2 week's of March dump alot of snow. Until then expect rain and spring temps. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoorani Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 GEFS is south of the OP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017021600/192/sfcmslp.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 Dont buy any solution that doesnt cut NW of here by a good amount. This is the range where models have struggled the most all year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 Surprising model agreement to end Feb and open March. GEFS/EPS/CFSv2/JMA Weeklies all pretty much agree that March will open like a Lion...but for how long??? Both CFSv2/JMA Weeklies see the end to Winter's last assault just after the 15th or so of March. Before that happens, it may be a pretty crazy ride. I'm seeing some shades of March '14 during the 1st week of March. After the torch this coming weekend into next week, temps in the 20's are going to be a shocker to the system. I have a string of 5 days in the 60's in the forecast. I'm sure the daffodils will start popping up through the ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 Such a tease. Don't reel me back in to this winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 00z EPS likes MSP/Northwoods region...maybe parts of NE this far out??? Hope this time models to crap this storm out. Would like to track a juiced up storm that can benefit this sub forum. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017021600/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_10.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoorani Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 GEFS still south of the OP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 If anybody can post the 00z Euro snow map that would be great, looks like a great hit for Central Ne, SD and ND. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 We'll have to see how strong the Hudson Bay ridge ends up being to see how strong the storm cuts. We don't have a raging positive NAO which may help steer this storm in the right direction. Near neutral NAO is being forecast...unfortunately, the AO is forecast to be positive.... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 12z GFS with a rapidly intensifying and slow moving 986mb SLP in N KS...nice trowel feature Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 Weird run...strengthens and then occludes and tracks SE...lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 12z GGEM... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017021612/gem_asnow_ncus_40.png 12z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 That ao.. Wont play ball Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 Looks like the Canadian took a more bowling ball look...similar to the GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoorani Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 GEM is showing LE Snow that looks interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 Looks like the Canadian took a more bowling ball look...similar to the GFS... I'll gladly take 2 inches just to end the futility streak Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 I am confident I will see nothing from this storm, but man, that thing is a monster, so I'm going to track it because this year has been awful that I don't care if it hits us or not! Additionally, I know our winter has sucked, but has anyone seen the drought relief in California this year? My gosh is that good for them. I didn't think I'd ever see the day where they come out of it, a lake I used to visit out there was turned into a puddle, but it looks like things are finally coming back around! http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA They are about to get pummeled again this upcoming week. Looks like almost the whole state will be out of the drought, almost entirely!! Awesome for them. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 I'll gladly take 2 inches just to end the futility streak Look what CALI endured, how do you know it's not a multi-year streak?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 All of you can have it I'm ready for 60s and 70s 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 12z Euro... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017021612/ecmwf_T850_us_9.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017021612/ecmwf_T850_us_10.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoorani Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 I believe euro is too far north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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