OKwx2k4 Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 The GFS has a new system tonight, along with a slight pattern shift to watch. The post below is either the start of something new or an epic ice storm pattern for OK/AR. I guess we will have to wait and see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 The CFS actually and surprisingly has been the most consistent model. As gosaints was so kind to remind us, last year it kicked the other models' butts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 With meteorological Winter almost upon us and the holiday season in full gear, tis the season for snow and cold...right??? The last couple Decembers have been lousy for winter weather enthusiasts (like myself), having said that, will this year finally deliver a better outcome??? Took a look this morning at the latest CFSv2 run and it has the nation under an ice box. It's been leaning towards a colder west/central CONUS of late, but with the winter pattern transitioning out of an extremely warm fall, and teleconnections supporting blocking...sure looks hopeful that this month could be rocking! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20161126.201612.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20161126.201612.gif CFSv2 weeklies look very cold down the road as the NE PAC ridge fires up which has been non existent this entire Fall. The LRC had a dominant "Pacific Storm Machine" as Gary Lezak outlines, but the seasonal feedback is probably going to flip this pattern in the NE PAC moving forward as Canada fills up with some brutal winter cold. Let's discuss... http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_latest.NAsfcT.gif http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 @ CFS So, now you're flashing the cold signal, but took all our moisture in the OHV away? You're not Grinching us are you?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Yeah the southeast looks WET. Good for them, they need it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 CFSv2 10 chunks still advertising a wetter than normal west/central CONUS... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd1.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 CFSv2 10 chunks still advertising a wetter than normal west/central CONUS... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd1.gif That'd be better - thx Even better if this verifies WHOOPS, THERE IT IS.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 GFS MJO forecast to meander around the cold phases 8/1, not a huge impulse, but holds validity to keep the pattern colder to open December... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif and primarily in Null Phase... Euro touches Phase 1, then into Null Phase... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I have posted these two Youtube videos by Charles Russell in the November discussion but there may be some who would like to see a good lake effect snow fall as we head towards the start of meteorological winter. The two are very typical of a heavy lake effect snows we get here in the Great Lakes area, The videos are from the 11/19/2016 eventDaytime video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_Q0oFmEmZE Nighttime video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkjdaO-8HiI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I so very much hope the CFS is right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I so very much hope the CFS is right.NE PAC ridge hasn't led us down 2 out of the 3 last winters (super Nino the only exception)...good things happen in 3's??? Make it 3 out of 4! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 NE PAC ridge hasn't led us down 2 out of the 3 last winters (super Nino the only exception)...good things happen in 3's??? Make it 3 out of 4!Sounds good to me! Arctic fury here we come! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I may just be wish casting but I think if the Euro keeps its slow east shifts up for the next couple of days, I may be under a decent snowfall in a week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I may just be wish casting but I think if the Euro keeps its slow east shifts up for the next couple of days, I may be under a decent snowfall in a week.Does it show any snowfall in the TX Panhandle region? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Weaker/warmer this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Weaker/warmer this run. ecmwf_tsnow_conus2_41-1.png that looks awesome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 That'd be better - thx Even better if this verifies 20161126 GFS 0z 372hr 2m temps.png WHOOPS, THERE IT IS..OOooooooo....thats cold! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 OOooooooo....thats cold! Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 that looks awesomeFor who? Sarcasm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Long way off, but could the PV's main show try to sneak onto this side of the Pole in mid December???? Day 15 GEFS... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112706/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png CFSv2 showing the PV centered north of Hudson Bay just after the Week 2 period...a lot of model volatility expected, esp with the AO... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016112700/cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_4.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016112700/cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_5.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 For who? Sarcasm? yeah a snooze fest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 GFS may be giving us a glimmer of hope in the extended?? Only thing even remotely on tap at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112712/288/snku_acc.us_mw.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 GFS may be giving us a glimmer of hope in the extended?? Only thing even remotely on tap at this point. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112712/288/snku_acc.conus.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 GFS may be giving us a glimmer of hope in the extended?? Only thing even remotely on tap at this point. Would be a great west/east CO Low to kick things off in December. Still a ways off but I'm hopeful this will end up something reasonably exciting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Would be a great west/east CO Low to kick things off in December. Still a ways off but I'm hopeful this will end up something reasonably exciting. Last 3-4 runs GFS had a system in this range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112712/288/snku_acc.us_mw.pngThat's as close to a share the wealth as you can get for everyone north and south of I-80, even down to KC! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 so yeah, this would be perfect for me and many others on here. So let's just lock this in right now. Maybe delay it a day so it occurs on a Friday. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Talk about cold after... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112712/348/sfct.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 CMC also with a storm in this time frame, but weaker and much warmer. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_228_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 CMC may be cold enough for snow in Iowa on that run. Didn't look like it when I looked a the classic maps, but pivotweather p-type coming in as snow. Nothing to be concerned with now anyway, but just pointing it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Punt and regroup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 That storm track looked very familiar. I took a look back at my notes and on Oct 25th-27th, there was a slow moving SLP that tracked from E NE/N IL/N IN/N OH. Fits the 42 day cycle and also the cold behind it correlates with the record early split of the PV that started on Oct 27th. If this storm can lay down the snow, could be looking at some serious cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 That's as close to a share the wealth as you can get for everyone north and south of I-80, even down to KC!Yup....this is a nice looking map for a lot of people on here. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112712/288/snku_acc.us_mw.pngGod, I hope this map verifies. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 The cold after this storm is horrendous. I am at near 5F with near a foot of snow on the ground. If the model can attest to what its showing, then, I am golden. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 I'm on my phone, but check out the 12z JMA for Day 7-8 GOM/OV cutter???? 12z Euro at same spot thru Day 7...waiting for it to fully load... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Euro with a little bit of snow; 1-2" next Saturday night into Sunday. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 12z JMA...takes a low straight out of the GOM and heads N/NE towards the OV...cold enough for snow on the NW side of the system. This system is part of the cut-off low that spins near the 4 corners/N Mexico region Day 4-6. If this system does in fact form, IMO, it would correlate with the Oct 19th-21st stationary boundary that lead to a wave of low pressure to form out of the TX Pan Handle and tracked up the OV and bombed out towards NE. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016112712/jma_mslpa_us_8.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016112712/jma_mslpa_us_9.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016112712/jma_T850_us_9.png 12z Euro has the storm but a tad farther east and less amplified... Day 7-8... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112712/ecmwf_mslpa_us_8.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112712/ecmwf_mslpa_us_9.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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