December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[dairyd]

Northern Whatcom County doing very good right now. Meanwhile it's 32* and pouring rain here. It's dumping snow on the lake Samish cam and I'm parallel to there latitude wise. Guess my location isn't what I hoped it would be. I'm worn out from anticipation and excitement, only to get let down. Taking a break from models/forums for a while because I feel like I just can't win. Good luck with the snow everyone

 

29 and moderate snow, just picked up in the last hour.  High temp was 30.  Still have a 10-20 NE wind.  EC forecast up to 6" tonight, so far their forecast from yesterday has been accurate.

[Phil]

Another -NAMT exchange ongoing in the clown range.

[Deweydog]

Another -NAMT exchange ongoing in the clown range.

I was just about to say...

[Goducks09]

Next weekend looks CHILLY.  Problem is, it's NEXT WEEKEND.  Cautiously-optimistically-waiting.  

[TT-SEA]

Transition to fake cold after day 10 on the 00Z GFS.     

[Deweydog]

Next weekend looks CHILLY. Problem is, it's NEXT WEEKEND. Cautiously-optimistically-waiting.

Yeah, very mild until then.

[Jesse]

Yeah, very mild until then.

Tomorrow and Sunday could be our only chance to get into the balmy low 40s+ territory for the next few weeks.

[ShawniganLake]

Lucky dogs on Vancouver Island stay cold all weekend.

 

Not so lucky down here.

Up to 10" here. Just light flurries now. Forecast is for rain tomorrow.

[Front Ranger]

Transition to fake cold after day 10 on the 00Z GFS.     

 

Would put most places in very good position for coldest December on record.

[Deweydog]

Tomorrow and Sunday could be our only chance to get into the balmy low 40s+ territory for the next few weeks.

More like months.

[MossMan]

Transition to fake cold after day 10 on the 00Z GFS.

Perhaps that will put Jim in a better mood!

33.3 and a mixture now.

[Phil]

Haha, Eurasian wavebreak in the clown range! That'd put this regime on roids..I don't think the Arctic chill is going anywhere anytime soon.

[TT-SEA]

Up to 10" here. Just light flurries now. Forecast is for rain tomorrow.

 

 

WRF keeps you very close to cold all weekend.    Tomorrow afternoon there is a brief warm up.  

[Deweydog]

Finally a cool down at 324.

[MossMan]

More like months.

You already forgot...January is ruined due to this December stunt.

[westcoastexpat]

Another -NAMT exchange ongoing in the clown range.

 

Good catch. Definitely noticing that the -NAMT is interacting with a subarctic +LMO, which truncates any RPO/FLA synchronicity that would lead to an overall -NMA/+OVA inversion in the stratosphere. The most interesting part is that the JMT enters phase 4 of the A-L spectrum, resulting in the shredding of the tropospheric VBP ejecting multiple rounds of high frequency FFQ waves. This then leads to a global weakening of the LLR conveyor belt at the midlatitudes thanks to the STA/-DMO couplet at the tropics. I'm thinking this leads to a +LMNOP in February.

[Jesse]

More like months.

Don't get me all excited!!

 

Although if your +PNA January call verifies it could still remain VERY cold at the surface after our record breaking December.

 

November/December 1985 shifted forward one month??

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Backdoor blast for Christmas!

[Deweydog]

You already forgot...January is ruined due to this December stunt.

There will be fake cold in January.

 

#594dm

[TT-SEA]

28.5 and moderate snow again.   

[BLI snowman]

That snowcover would be staying around for a long time. 

[Phil]

Good catch. Definitely noticing that the -NAMT is interacting with a subarctic +LMO, which truncates any RPO/FLA synchronicity that would lead to an overall -NMA/+OVA inversion in the stratosphere. The most interesting part is that the JMT enters phase 4 of the A-L spectrum, resulting in the shredding of the tropospheric VBP ejecting multiple rounds of high frequency FFQ waves. This then leads to a global weakening of the LLR conveyor belt at the midlatitudes thanks to the STA/-DMO couplet at the tropics. I'm thinking this leads to a +LMNOP in February.

You're a met, right?

[Jesse]

Good catch. Definitely noticing that the -NAMT is interacting with a subarctic +LMO, which truncates any RPO/FLA synchronicity that would lead to an overall -NMA/+OVA inversion in the stratosphere. The most interesting part is that the JMT enters phase 4 of the A-L spectrum, resulting in the shredding of the tropospheric VBP ejecting multiple rounds of high frequency FFQ waves. This then leads to a global weakening of the LLR conveyor belt at the midlatitudes thanks to the STA/-DMO couplet at the tropics. I'm thinking this leads to a +LMNOP in February.

This is pretty good.

[Goducks09]

Good catch. Definitely noticing that the -NAMT is interacting with a subarctic +LMO, which truncates any RPO/FLA synchronicity that would lead to an overall -NMA/+OVA inversion in the stratosphere. The most interesting part is that the JMT enters phase 4 of the A-L spectrum, resulting in the shredding of the tropospheric VBP ejecting multiple rounds of high frequency FFQ waves. This then leads to a global weakening of the LLR conveyor belt at the midlatitudes thanks to the STA/-DMO couplet at the tropics. I'm thinking this leads to a +LMNOP in February.

 

I was just about to say this too.  

[Phil]

NAMT: North American Mountain Torque

EAMT: East Asian Mountain Torque

 

The interactive relationship between these two dynamic effects is a major player in the NPAC/EPO/WPO state.

[seattleweatherguy]

Good catch. Definitely noticing that the -NAMT is interacting with a subarctic +LMO, which truncates any RPO/FLA synchronicity that would lead to an overall -NMA/+OVA inversion in the stratosphere. The most interesting part is that the JMT enters phase 4 of the A-L spectrum, resulting in the shredding of the tropospheric VBP ejecting multiple rounds of high frequency FFQ waves. This then leads to a global weakening of the LLR conveyor belt at the midlatitudes thanks to the STA/-DMO couplet at the tropics. I'm thinking this leads to a +LMNOP in February.

Who else is lost

[Timmy]

00z summary?

[Phil]

Who else is lost

He's mocking me.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Perhaps that will put Jim in a better mood!

33.3 and a mixture now.

Without snow I can assume the mood will be somewhat somber.

[Goducks09]

What kind of surface temps are we looking at in NW Oregon next weekend based on the 00z?  Assuming the strong Gorge outflow from a snow covered basin?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I will never catch up with Tim s snow now... I ll need to beat him with a cold low. I do great with radational cooling here so maybe!!! I hit 2 in December 13, 13 in February 14, and 11 in January 2013

[Deweydog]

00z summary?

Cold desert.

[Phil]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z summary?

Al Gore won't have a leg to stand on.

[Goducks09]

Drudge has picked up the pattern FWIW

[MossMan]

00z summary?

Brrrr...ice skating on lakes...fake brrrr later on...and backdoor action on Christmas. Is what I gathered anyway.

[Jesse]

Al Gore won't have a leg to stand on.

Frostbite? Yikes.

[Timmy]

❄☃☃❄❄❄❄☁❄❄

wow, that good?

[luvssnow_spokane]

That snowcover would be staying around for a long time.

Hmmm what snow cover??

[ShawniganLake]