December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Perturbed Member]

Hmmm, I thought models were showing highs in the mid to upper thirties. Interesting...

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

 

Indeed very rare to see Mark put that on the 7 day this far out. He almost always ignores long range cold on the models. Either he's been drinking or we're in for some fun. 

[chopper 918]

Am I weird for really liking the 18z?

 

Nothing wrong with liking it cold, dry and windy.  Beats the hell out of 45 and rain every single day.

[chopper 918]

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

 

Indeed very rare to see Mark put that on the 7 day this far out. He almost always ignores long range cold on the models. Either he's been drinking or we're in for some fun. 

 

It is weird...he must think we are going to get snow in that time period.  He kept referring to it in his broadcast last night.

[snow_wizard]

I still have some cold air for anyone that wants it. No need for it here with almost no snow to preserve. Still only 31 degrees. Never topped freezing today. I do have quite a layer of ice hanging around.

[Front Ranger]

NWS going with 2"+ for Whatcom County tonight as Fraser outflow continues.

[Goducks09]

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

 

Indeed very rare to see Mark put that on the 7 day this far out. He almost always ignores long range cold on the models. Either he's been drinking or we're in for some fun.

Looks like he's not latching onto anything for tues/wed just yet. Has potential though!

[snow_wizard]

Things could end up colder than the upper levels would indicate at the surface thanks to healthy snow cover in the Columbia Basin and the Gorge.

Little doubt the 18z would be cold at the surface. Some extremely favorable surface pressure gradients being depicted. For here very weak easterly works the best and that's what's shown. If we could somehow manage to have snow going into it things could get really cold.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Am I weird for really liking the 18z?

Hell no!

[TT-SEA]

14 inches on the ground here.

[Perturbed Member]

Crazy...any chance the mid layers cool back down below freezing to cool the entire column?

 

 

GFS had 925mb temps of +4c at this hour over PDX and should drop to +2c in the coming hours, but they are not supposed to get cold enough for anything interesting until maybe Monday at the earliest. 

[Deweydog]

The warning shot has lost its luster.

 

That's the problem with weenies and warning shots.  The second we hear gunfire we're strapping on Kevlar vests and helmets and busting out the tourniquets.  

[snow_wizard]

Chances are if the GFS is correct in building the block too far east for us to get moisture there's a decent chance it will back up a bit later in the month. I still think a likely incorrect MJO forecast is the culprit with the GFS putting the block to far east all of a sudden.

[Perturbed Member]

I still have some cold air for anyone that wants it. No need for it here with almost no snow to preserve. Still only 31 degrees. Never topped freezing today. I do have quite a layer of ice hanging around.

 

Surface level cold air is abundant for most of us, I hit 34 briefly and am back to freezing. If you have anything to fix the warm air aloft though, that would be appreciated. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Chances are if the GFS is correct in building the block too far east for us to get moisture there's a decent chance it will back up a bit later in the month. I still a likely incorrect MJO forecast is the culprit with the GFS putting the block to far east all of a sudden.

right in Phil s timeframe

[HighlandExperience]

Chances are if the GFS is correct in building the block too far east for us to get moisture there's a decent chance it will back up a bit later in the month. I still think a likely incorrect MJO forecast is the culprit with the GFS putting the block to far east all of a sudden.

Just feels like we have to score sometime in the next 2-3 weeks, before January comes.

[Perturbed Member]

Looks like he's not latching onto anything for tues/wed just yet. Has potential though!

 

Not enough model agreement for that. Maybe if the euro shows snow for another run or two and if the GFS trends in that direction. 

[Geos]

Down to 31.9° here. Things are icing up again as night has fallen. Flurries flying again.

[Heavy Snow]

Hoping the Gorge wont thaw out much before colder air returns early next week. Models have underestimated the low level cold once again.

[MossMan]

Latest Seattle AFD is still mentioning snow with the Arctic boundary sliding through Puget Sound on Monday....yet nobody is talking about that...is it bogus info?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

14 inches on the ground here.

dude its going to snow there on and off all weekend

[TT-SEA]

dude its going to snow there on and off all weekend

 

 

No... I know this goes.   

 

Precip will end tomorrow morning... then we get a SW wind and warm air with rain some showers... then maybe some light snow as we turn cold again Monday and the flow goes offshore.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 18z is December 2005 on steriods

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wind switch and SLE just dropped 10 degrees in the past hour!

[Perturbed Member]

The 18z NAVGEM also showing something the EURO showed, granted a little slower. Shows a Low sending moisture through Oregon and into Washington Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. This map just shows precipitation, not type but it would most likely be all snow for PDX Metro and North as it pulls cold gorge east winds as it heads east.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Does the NAVGEM have much credibility?

[Deweydog]

The 18z is December 2005 on steriods

 

It would be in a totally different class.  Funny thing is, it may only end up as cold as that, though.  The air mass stays pretty well mixed but never gets exceedingly cold, at least at face value.  

[Front Ranger]

14 inches on the ground here.

 

Wow. You might have 18"+ by tomorrow morning.

[BLI snowman]

Just feels like we have to score sometime in the next 2-3 weeks, before January comes.

 

January will be a nightmare most likely, but February should put out.

[Bryant]

Does the NAVGEM have much credibility?

It's only used when it shows something good

[Deweydog]

Arctic front has moved through Salem.  Down 10 degrees in the last hour, should be into the teens by 8pm.  

[Winterdog]

Latest Seattle AFD is still mentioning snow with the Arctic boundary sliding through Puget Sound on Monday....yet nobody is talking about that...is it bogus info?

why discuss it.. it's in the clown range.

[HighlandExperience]

why discuss it.. it's in the clown range.

Mm no it's this Monday. That is reasonably close.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Arctic front has moved through Salem.  Down 10 degrees in the last hour, should be into the teens by 8pm.Rod hill was right again!!

 

[Bryant]

why discuss it.. it's in the clown range.

3 days is clown range?

[Winterdog]

Mm no it's this Monday. That is reasonably close.

I rest my case.

[Kayla]

Wow, when do you think you might start finally thawing out?

 

Honestly thought I'd thaw out early this afternoon but now I would say not until we get that true south wind surge tomorrow afternoon. Have about 1.25" of ice here now with more ZR on the way so I'm afraid it's going to be a long night for all the trees and other vegetation.

[MossMan]

why discuss it.. it's in the clown range.

3 days is clown range these days?

[TT-SEA]

Wow. You might have 18"+ by tomorrow morning.

 

 

Yeah... if its all snow tonight.   Wondering if we might change to freezing rain though.  

[Winterdog]

3 days is clown range?

Lately yes!

[Front Ranger]

January will be a nightmare most likely, but February should put out.

 

Or we could see things go more the 1948-49, 1961-62, 1970-71, 1971-72, 1978-79, 1984-85, 1992-93 route. It's been awhile, but a consistently cold, blocky winter all the way into February is due.

 

2008-09 was the closest in recent years, but January wasn't cold.

[Perturbed Member]

It's only used when it shows something good

 

So same level as the JMA then.