December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Bingo!

You are aware some of us can't for various reasons?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For what its worth the JMA is on board. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016120912/jma_T850_us_9.png

[Jesse]

Nice.... But will it snow!? I think that is really all most of care about?

Probably a good idea to speak for yourself and not the entire forum.

[Timmy]

I think I made a poor choice coming down into town. It's been dumping zr since I left and it was still 28f at my place. I was planning on heading back home around 1. But I may be stuck down here until roads thaw, if they do at all today. Scappoose isn't quite as bad but after you get a little elevation it's really bad.

[IbrChris]

Frigid! Snow cover?

Euro suggests any snow that falls from Tuesday onward in Portland isn't going anywhere for awhile. Maybe 3-4" on the ground as the real Arctic air arrives toward the weekend.

[Timmy]

I think I

Euro suggests any snow that falls from Tuesday onward in Portland isn't going anywhere for awhile. Maybe 3-4" on the ground as the real Arctic air arrives toward the weekend.

i think I saw a 15 degree high at some point on the euro graph (not sure what all the plot points mean.)?

[The Swamp]

Euro suggests any snow that falls from Tuesday onward in Portland isn't going anywhere for awhile. Maybe 3-4" on the ground as the real Arctic air arrives toward the weekend.

Wait a minute now. When is the arctic air arriving in Western Washington? Next weekend? Will it actually be a front with moisture? All I have now is mud puddles in the driveway.

[Perturbed Member]

Euro suggests any snow that falls from Tuesday onward in Portland isn't going anywhere for awhile. Maybe 3-4" on the ground as the real Arctic air arrives toward the weekend.

 

How realistic/feasible is that snow setup for PDX on Tuesday in your opinion? I don't have access to weatherbell but it looked like there is some low heading into southern OR? Real marginal?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wait a minute now. When is the arctic air arriving in Western Washington? Next weekend? Will it actually be a front with moisture? All I have now is mud puddles in the driveway.

No arctic air for Puyallup. Only gas and nothing.

[seattleweatherguy]

Back to rain here

[Front Ranger]

Sounds like parts of North Seattle did really well with this event, even better than models that were showing enhanced snowfall in that area. Friends on Facebook are indicating anywhere from 2-5" as you get a little north of downtown.

[Phil]

I wish to God I could. A lot of things that just don't add up to doing that. I totally blame myself. I just didn't research this area well enough before we moved here. At first blush you would think this would be a good spot, but there are too many things wrong with the location. No doubt great winters have happened here and in fact faired better than most areas, but it takes specific patterns. Thank God I'm as healthy as an ox so I may be able to live somewhere good before I'm too old to enjoy it. My situations does make for long bouts of melancholia though.

 

Traveling to where it's snowy just doesn't float my boat either.

I mean, I don't know what your situation is, but do you honestly want to live in one region for your entire life? Think about all you're missing out on, not just in terms of weather/climate but also socially and economically.

 

I could never spend my life within one geographical domain.

[Deweydog]

How realistic/feasible is that snow setup for PDX on Tuesday in your opinion? I don't have access to weatherbell but it looked like there is some low heading into southern OR? Real marginal?

Small scale feature.

[Skagit Weather]

Looks like I ended up getting just over an inch at home. Like I suspected the rain shadow definitely came into play after the first push. Currently it's hovering around 34F with what looks like overcast skies. Most of the nearby locations are receiving rain or a rain/snow mix.

[Winterdog]

Still snowing here. Have brought my total event snowfall up to 1.5". Temp up to 33 though.

[χιόνι (chióni)]

No arctic air for Puyallup. Only gas and nothing.

Are you located in Seabeck area?

[epiceast]

Best way to get your snow fix is just move to s better location. I know I'm not the only one who has.

I didn't move for that reason, but I moved to such a location, where I should get 40-60" a year depending on the part of town i'm in and ENSO, but so far i'm been paying by having a lot of mornings in single degree digits. The snow hasn't really materialized either so far, so don't move out of a maritime climate if you do it.

[luminen]

Snowing again. I'd give some snow to the Swamp People and Jim if I could.

[Phil]

Best way to get your snow fix is just move to s better location. I know I'm not the only one who has.

Yeah, this is my long term plan. I'd like to move somewhere within the Midwest or Great Lakes, or maybe Colorado. Then if I get rich enough maybe retire to a beachfront locale like Montauk or Nantucket.

[Jesse]

Small scale feature.

What do you think about the way the Euro digs so much energy offshore early next week while still backdooring us? Seems like a pretty inherently unstable set up at 500mb.

[IbrChris]

The polar vortex bifurcates next week with one daughter vortex/eddy over SW Canada and another near James Bay. It's going to be very cold over virtually the entire northern half of the US.

[BLI snowman]

Starting to melt here now, roads in my area never got too bad, just some slick spots on the sides.

 

It would be nice to have ground-covering snow going into a dry, cold airmass. Other than December 2013, this area hasn't fared well with that in the past 15 years.

[bainbridgekid]

33 degrees at Noon.

 

Not bad.

 

Still absolutely gorgeous out with snow flocked trees.

[Phil]

What do you think about the way the Euro digs so much energy offshore early next week while still backdooring us? Seems like a pretty inherently unstable set up at 500mb.

The Euro always drags energy meridionally along mountainous terrain during mountain torque exchange. Has always been a bias of this model, as far as I know.

 

Look at day nine, for example. This ridiculous digging of energy into the SW will not verify.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/584F1DFF-38AF-4D8D-94F4-3219CC33D26E_zpsxanf1aqu.png

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Are you located in Seabeck area?

About 4 miles se of seabeck.

[IbrChris]

How realistic/feasible is that snow setup for PDX on Tuesday in your opinion? I don't have access to weatherbell but it looked like there is some low heading into southern OR? Real marginal?

Cyclogenesis with potential for a BC slider. Doesn't look heavy as the main moisture will be mainly Medford south into California. I'd say anywhere from an inch or so to 3-4" depending on the track/intensity of any sliders

[Jesse]

The Euro always drags energy meridionally along mountainous terrain during mountain torque exchange. Has always been a bias of this model, as far as I know.

 

Look at day nine, for example. This will not verify:

 

 

Do you mean to tell me that something advertised at day 9 will not verify verbatim??

[luminen]

Yeah, this is my long term plan. I'd like to move somewhere within the Midwest or Great Lakes, or maybe Colorado. Then if I get rich enough maybe retire to a beachfront locale like Montauk or Nantucket.

 

Great Lakes as in Duluth-Houghton or Cleveland-Rochester?

 

They get a lot of snow but Colorado has more interesting weather.

[IbrChris]

Wait a minute now. When is the arctic air arriving in Western Washington? Next weekend? Will it actually be a front with moisture? All I have now is mud puddles in the driveway.

Cold air filters in early next week but it doesn't turn really cold until late week/weekend (highs in 20s potentially).

[Perturbed Member]

HIO hit 32 F last night around midnight, and is still 32F and continues to report either freezing rain or "Unknown Prcp". The models as usual have underestimated the persistence of the low level cold by a big margin.

[Phil]

Do you mean to tell me that something advertised at day 9 will not verify verbatim??

I was trying to answer your question, regarding the Euro digging

more energy offshore relative to the modeling consensus. This seems to be a bias of this model, as far as I can tell. The trough in the long range is a potential example of this tendency.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem has bumped to 40, the slow warm up west of I-205 should begin in earnest later this afternoon...

[IbrChris]

I was trying to answer your question, regarding the Euro digging

more energy offshore relative to the modeling consensus. This seems to be a bias of this model, as far as I can tell. The trough in the long range is a potential example of this tendency.

Important to note that while the polar jet looks to be suppressed southward as the PV bifurcates and impacts the northern tier, it isn't dead by any means nor is it likely to drop clear down to Mexico. Sure there are some instances of such a pattern such as Jan 1913 which brought Phoenix a high of 38 but such is extremely rare. I could see the trough digging into TX though...as that AK block situates much east of 150 W there's more potential for Arctic air to dump east of the Rockies unless there's some sort of low over the southwestern US or Great Basin to pull it westward.

[Phil]

Great Lakes as in Duluth-Houghton or Cleveland-Rochester?

 

They get a lot of snow but Colorado has more interesting weather.

Depends on where I can find work. That's probably going to be my number one priority overall, so there's a good chance I won't be able to live in a lake-effect snowbelt anyway.

 

My problem with Denver and Salt Lake City is their general lack of precipitation and severe weather relative to Midwest locations. I'm just as much of a severe weather junkie as I am a snow weenie, so I doubt I could thrive on under 30" of precipitation per year.

 

The reason I might want to live there is due to their generally very low humidity, beautiful scenery, and variable weather during Spring and Fall. The Midwest is geographically boring, visually uninspiring, and gets humid as f**k at times, though it's not as persistently bad as DC.

[MossMan]

I just love how the snow cover makes the inside of our house so bright! Snow just stopped, 32F

[Deweydog]

Its been a long time since we've had a melt out around here without an ice cap.

[crf450ish]

Snowing like crazy off and on here. NWS called for widespread snow today with periods of heavy snowfall. I'm going to try to snap a crappy phone pic of the snow fall completely horizontal when a gust comes through. Currently 18 outside.

[IbrChris]

I think I i think I saw a 15 degree high at some point on the euro graph (not sure what all the plot points mean.)?

Coldest high at PDX was 23.

[crf450ish]

You are aware some of us can't for various reasons?

Yes I am.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Coldest high at PDX was 23.

That is realistic if it verified