December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Heavy Snow]

Last night's run of the upgraded 00z GFS-Parallel is different again from the regular 00z GFS. The regular 00z GFS has the system next week heading into California, while the parallel has it hitting the PNW like the EURO last night. At this point I'd lead towards the EURO/GFS-Para solution. Colder air filters in behind the system.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016120900/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016120900/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016120900/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016120900/gfsp_asnow_us_32.png

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Heavy snow is an understatement here.

 

you could stay snow all weekend

[weatherfan2012]

It's even more hideous in the extended range, but similar problems with the consolidation of the +NAO/dampened NAMT hence the trend towards abstrong, fully coupled PV/+AO. Similar to the problems faced over the last two winters.

Far from certain it'll verify, though, and in the long run I'm betting against something like that persisting for very long.

it will be interesting to see if the negative nao comes back in a big way in a few years as we get closer to the solar minimum of cycles 24 and then how it behaves doing the next few cycles should be interesting times to follow and research and study wise as we move into this possable deep solar hibernation over the next few cycles.interesting the nao has been strongly negative in the summer but yet positive in the fall/winter as of late.

[Heavy Snow]

Great for Oregon but we would get shafted based soley on that. If past trends continue it will continue to move north.

 

EURO has you guys getting over a foot, GFS-Para has us getting over a foot. Let's hope for something in the middle. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

12z GFS has a nice surprise for Christmas.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_51.png

Freezing rain? 

[Phil]

it will be interesting to see if the negative nao comes back in a big way in a few years as we get closer to the solar minimum of cycles 24 and then how it behaves doing the next few cycles should be interesting times to follow and research and study wise as we move into this possable deep solar hibernation over the next few cycles.

Oh, I'm sure it will. It's usually something that occurs during the geomagnetic/solar wind minimums as opposed to the declining stages of the solar radiative cycles where the solar wind is still high (like now), given the thermokinetic drivers behind the wave dynamics associated with the NAO circulation are more photochemically vulnerable. Also, generally speaking, a weaker planetary magnetic field strongly correlates to a boreal winter +NAO, in the grand scheme of things (for what should be obvious reasons IMO). It so happens that the planetary magnetic field has been weakening rapidly over the last several hundred years.

[Heavy Snow]

Wow, new development on the 12z EURO. System comes out of nowhere and spreads snow up the Willamette Valley Tuesday/Wednesday.

[Prairiedog]

EURO has you guys getting over a foot, GFS-Para has us getting over a foot. Let's hope for something in the middle. 

Not realistic at all. 

[Heavy Snow]

Not realistic at all. 

 

Ok.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Ahhh.  I need a cigarette after that event.

[FroYoBro]

Wow interesting. We will see if the other models pick up on it or it is just nonsense. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

EURO has you guys getting over a foot, GFS-Para has us getting over a foot. Let's hope for something in the middle. 

nope ... will not happen. 

[IbrChris]

I feel like a plausible scenario given the 6-10 and 11-15 day progressions is for a snow event middle of next week and potentially toward the following weekend/beginning of the next week followed by a building ridge just offshore in the 11-15 which would, given the strong low-level cold, set up strong inversions in the lead-up to Christmas. There's a risk for high temps to remain below 40 for over a week...potentially from about next Tuesday through Christmas. There's a risk for highs in the mid-upper 20s and lows in the mid-upper teens at both PDX and SEA with the pattern suggested by the GFS ensembles, the operational runs and the colder third of Euro ensemble members, which would be similar to Dec 2013.

[Guest happ]

Live pic from my backyard... 

 

 

Do you have a snow plow?

[Heavy Snow]

 

Hopefully this system the EURO has picked up on trends North. It has lots of moisture associated with it, could give somebody a good dumping.

[seattleweatherguy]

NWS just tweeted to expect another 1-2 inches of snow and/or freezing rain in the EPSL through today. Cold hanging on longer than modeled, although the Euro showed this happening to a certain degree.

Nice but it's raining here

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

NWS just tweeted to expect another 1-2 inches of snow and/or freezing rain in the EPSL through today. Cold hanging on longer than modeled, although the Euro showed this happening to a certain degree.

I am not surprised at all. There will be no big warm up anytime soon. Alot of places will be flirting with snow all weekend especially at night.

[MossMan]

Snowing again!

[Heavy Snow]

On the EURO, the Thursday system slides through Southern Oregon. Still light snow accumulations for the Valley. Higher amounts further south.

[Jesse]

Surprised to see SLE still at 35 and PDX at 32. That low level cold is really hanging tough.

[TT-SEA]

25 here with heavy snow.   At least 2 inches in the last 90 minutes.  

[snow_wizard]

The Euro is much more impressive with the second cold shot around day 7 or 8. Lots more snow potential than the GFS.

[Heavy Snow]

I feel like a plausible scenario given the 6-10 and 11-15 day progressions is for a snow event middle of next week and potentially toward the following weekend/beginning of the next week followed by a building ridge just offshore in the 11-15 which would, given the strong low-level cold, set up strong inversions in the lead-up to Christmas. There's a risk for high temps to remain below 40 for over a week...potentially from about next Tuesday through Christmas. There's a risk for highs in the mid-upper 20s and lows in the mid-upper teens at both PDX and SEA with the pattern suggested by the GFS ensembles, the operational runs and the colder third of Euro ensemble members, which would be similar to Dec 2013.

 

That sounds good.

[snow_wizard]

Looking like a realistic shot at this being the coldest month in a long time for the Western Lowlands at least. Things like the cold hanging on better than expected today just adds to that.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF shows no snow for King County in the transition on Monday.   

[Perturbed Member]

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=KHIO&num=72&raw=0

 

 

It is really impressive to see that HIO has pretty much maintained 32F or less with precip for most hours out of the last 24 hrs. Too bad for that warm air aloft, we could have had quite a bit of snow with all that. The stubborn gorge influence is still keeping even the west metro at freezing.

[Jesse]

Looking like a realistic shot at this being the coldest month in a long time for the Western Lowlands at least. Things like the cold hanging on better than expected today just adds to that.

How are you feeling about January lately?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thank you king Euro

[Kayla]

Approaching about 3/4" of ice up here and just climbed up to the 30º mark for the first time in over 36 hours. NWS has extended the freezing rain advisory for here to 6pm now so more to come. Cold air has been incredibly persistent. I have an AWD car with snow tires and even with that setup driving up here is incredibly bad as the roads are literally an ice skating rink.

 

[Heavy Snow]

Another snow chance as a weak system slides down the coastline on Friday.

[Phil]

Looking like a realistic shot at this being the coldest month in a long time for the Western Lowlands at least. Things like the cold hanging on better than expected today just adds to that.

I don't like the trend. The ECMWF also jumped (with the other guidance) towards the +NAO/coupled PV solution. Unless this is a blip of sorts, the end result will be a stronger Hudson Bay Vortex and Great Lakes trough, a NEPAC ridge closer to the coast, and an open conduit to a +EPO/+AO, regardless of the various particular clown range oddities.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

ECMWF shows no snow for King County in the transition on Monday.

[/quoteHard to take anything serious right now as far as precip is concerned.

[snow_wizard]

The precip is trying to go back to snow here. Currently a mix of snow, sleet, and ZR.

[MikeInEverett]

Light snow and 31 here. Just drove in snow for the first time and it was an adventure.

[snow_wizard]

How are you feeling about January lately?

How are you feeling about January lately?

Historically speaking the odds are against it being spectacular. It is possible there could be a short lived event in there somewhere though. On the other hand this block is insane and could last a long time. I have to think that such blocks were what brought long periods of greatness in the 19th century.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The precip is trying to go back to snow here. Currently a mix of snow, sleet, and ZR.

The stuff coming in off the coast is not as earm as modeled. You could get snow still especially with as cold as the passes are still.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[luvssnow_spokane]

ECMWF shows no snow for King County in the transition on Monday.   

Obviously this would be the case. LOL!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

33 at sea level in port orchard. Probably wont reach 36 today.