December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

2" here and light snow again.

[Phil]

You still have the glow of 2013-14 to bask in. This is about the worst snow drought ever recorded for this area. By that I mean the amount of time since we've had a 2 inch or more snowfall. Given how early it the season it still is I'm sure I'll get over it quickly.

You're just getting started. Episodic anticyclonic wavebreaking will be a theme this winter..after mid/late December, there'll be another bigger round of wavebreaking towards the end of January, into February, not to mention the possibility of a full blown SSW/PV breakdown sometime between mid/late January and mid-February.

[epiceast]

Got slightly over an inch of really dry snow, slightly overperformed i guess. Still 13F here, can't wait for it to warm up into the 20s and hopefully get some decent snow amounts.

[seattleweatherguy]

Not sure how 33 with a dp of 30 is rain but that what weather ap shows

[Deweydog]

Not sure how 33 with a dp of 30 is rain but that what weather ap shows

?

[Brennan]

You're just getting started. Episodic anticyclonic wavebreaking will be a theme this winter..after mid/late December, there'll be another bigger round of wavebreaking towards the end of January, into February, not to mention the possibility of a full blown SSW/PV breakdown sometime between mid/late January and mid-February.

 

Some panic going on looking at the models showing 2 weeks of arctic air and NO SNOW. 

[Timmy]

Not sure how 33 with a dp of 30 is rain but that what weather ap shows

it rained for 6 hours yesterday at my place at 24-21

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Best advice ditch the weather apps

[TT-SEA]

Live pic from my backyard... 

 

[snow_wizard]

The 12z has 850s bottoming out at -9C for SEA with the next cold shot. The height anoms being shown with the block a week out are even more insane than previous runs. My guess would be that thing hangs out for at least 2 weeks. No doubt it will be cold. Best snow threat may be Sunday night / Monday.

[Jesse]

Best advice ditch the weather apps

 

They are complete garbage.

[snow_wizard]

Best advice ditch the weather apps

Yeah...pretty worthless in a lot of ways.

[snow_wizard]

Some panic going on looking at the models showing 2 weeks of arctic air and NO SNOW.

I'm just completely at a loss at what it will take to finally make it snow a respectable amount here. I know it can.

[CTA]

Here in Olympia, I ended up with about 4-5" at my house (about 200' ASL).  Downtown at sea level, maybe a couple of inches.  Raining now, so it's a sloppy mess.

[HighlandExperience]

[North_County]

3/4-ish inch about 150 yards south of the border in Sumas. Didn't start accumulating until probably about 6:00 this morning. Still snowing pretty good when I left the house around 7:30, but it had stopped by the time I got to Lynden. Temp is still in the low 20s this morning with a modest outflow, so if that band crossing Vancouver Island and the San Juans ever makes it here, we should have another round.

 

Canadian friends: What's it doing in Vancouver? I'm supposed to visit our office up there this afternoon, and wouldn't hate having an excuse to start the weekend early.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Rain snow mix in port orchard now but still snow and 32 at home

[TT-SEA]

Next band of heavier precip moving in here now with heavy snow and 26.

 

Looks like the change-over has happened all the way up to the Highway 18 and I-90 interchange.   I have seen it stop there with offshore flow and snow continuing out here for a long time.   And other times the warm air wins out more quickly.   Given the weak nature of the warm push it might hold on here today.    

 

Snow is much heavier now though... sometimes a sign that it will turn over.  

[snow_wizard]

Pretty serious freezing rain here now. Temp has actually dropped to a tad below 31.

[χιόνι (chióni)]

Ended up with 3-4 inches of snow

[luvssnow_spokane]

Well, I ended up with about a .5 inch of snow. It was pretty much gone when I woke up this morning but was refreshing to see snow in what was basically a multi-year snow drought. Looking at the models it looks cold but desert dry which is horribly discouraging. Cold is nice but without snow it is just lame. Honestly, it just amazes me how hard it is to get a decent snow in here anymore. We shall see. Maybe I will get a true white Christmas this year.

 

For those who missed it here a few pics of my place last night.

 

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really icy in the Salem area. Main roads are fine though

[snow_wizard]

The GFS kind of loses it after day 10. Really bad teleconnection with a ridge very close to the West coast in combo with a SE ridge. The feature that continues to be interesting is the uber anomalous surface high being depicted over the GOA. Impossible for us to not be cold with that. It also has the benefit of being a huge PDO dropper. Latest SST trend maps already show cooling along the West Coast and warming over the Western GOA.

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah glad I'm not working today.

 

It's a shame we saw that tongue of warmth at 925mb since this really wasn't even a "warm"

system, per se. 850s never went above zero and thicknesses stayed at 540dm or lower.

 

 

Agree, we had so many things go right except for that dreaded warm tongue. Really reduced the potential of the event. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Still holding at around 25-26 at my house, with the wind still out of the NE.  It pretty much stopped snowing but is looks like another band will hit in the next few hours.  

 

It will be interesting to see if we experience the same warm up that is happening to the south...

[TT-SEA]

WRF shows ripping SW winds even out here tomorrow night... bye bye snow.  

[TT-SEA]

My mom sent a picture from their house north of Lake Whatcom.   Maybe 2-3 inches of snow and roads are completely covered.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GFS kind of loses it after day 10. Really bad teleconnection with a ridge very close to the West coast in combo with a SE ridge. The feature that continues to be interesting is the uber anomalous surface high being depicted over the GOA. Impossible for us to not be cold with that. It also has the benefit of being a huge PDO dropper. Latest SST trend maps already show cooling along the West Coast and warming over the Western GOA.

Well it'd still be cold at the surface imo

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WRF shows ripping SW winds even out here tomorrow night... bye bye snow.

Until it snows again Sunday

[TT-SEA]

Absolute snow globe out there with this next band... just dumping.

 

Temperature actually dropping a little... down to 24.5

[TT-SEA]

Until it snows again Sunday

 

 

WRF shows nothing... too warm all day and then precip is gone when it gets cold enough for snow.

[TT-SEA]

Maybe snow on Monday low with that low spinning offshore.

[jcmcgaffey]

Yeah...pretty worthless in a lot of ways.

I actually use the Wundermap app all the time and it is pretty accurate with everyone's weather stations shown on a map.  If some one has there's in a bad spot you will be able to tell as there are others right near it to compare too.  I think it is an awesome tool.

I used it last night watching the storm come in.

[snow_wizard]

Well it'd still be cold at the surface imo

 

No doubt. My point was a ridge further west is favored. Exactly what the ECMWF ensemble showed on the 0z.

[snow_wizard]

No wonder it's still below freezing here. 11 degrees on Stampede Pass. East wind refuses to die.

[jcmcgaffey]

I will have to say I was satisfied with the 3-4" here in north Seattle. More than I expected.  I just went in to work and the roads were still covered and buses stuck and cars sliding around.  The kids got to play and sled and throw snowballs this morning.  It should stick around for most of the day before its gone.

 

Usually Seattle (city itself) gets shafted more than most anyone else especially compared to east lowlands so it was nice to have it different for once:)

[snow_wizard]

Another interesting thing to note is the GFS likes the idea of an MJO wave emerging in 7 or 8 a bit down the road, while the ECMWF s going for a possible wave in 4 or 5. The Euro is much better with the MJO, and 4/5 is the magical spot for us.

 

I'm still thinking a long lasting block near the prime location for us.

[Phil]

Some panic going on looking at the models showing 2 weeks of arctic air and NO SNOW.

You guys have absolutely no reason to be panicking. Overall you're set up fairly nicely in the long run, barring an unexpected consolidation of the PV/AO which looks unlikely. Hard to find any negatives for you guys, actually..maybe too much Indo-China forcing but that's yet to be determined and might not be a problem at all.

 

If anyone should be panicking it's me. This looks like a classic "suppression depression" winter here. A frigid, dry, mostly snowless piece of crap with the occasional warm blast.

[TT-SEA]

No wonder it's still below freezing here. 11 degrees on Stampede Pass. East wind refuses to die.

 

 

It will die tonight or early tomorrow morning... models have shown that all along.  

[Phil]

The GFS kind of loses it after day 10. Really bad teleconnection with a ridge very close to the West coast in combo with a SE ridge. The feature that continues to be interesting is the uber anomalous surface high being depicted over the GOA. Impossible for us to not be cold with that. It also has the benefit of being a huge PDO dropper. Latest SST trend maps already show cooling along the West Coast and warming over the Western GOA.

The problem on the 12z GFS is the raging +NAO. That's a natural destructive interference regime in relation to the -PNA.