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December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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Trade you my 1/4" of freezing rain for your dusting of snow? :lol:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/57F4221B-DF72-44C2-9A9C-FE5020E6E6E1_zpsn8oy3ikz.png

I will take anything over 43 degree muddy rain!
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Snow just a bit too south of me. I'm sitting at 27F after a cloud insulated low of 21F. Still looks possible I might score about an inch tomorrow morning before the rain moves in.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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The 12z hi-res para NAM did actually show some snow north of Seattle like what we're seeing now. This model has really impressed me the past couple weeks.

 

attachicon.gifget_orig_img.gif

Looks like I might have to add this to my tool box.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I imagine at some point very soon the Seattle NWS will have to admit a bust for today and issue a WWA.

I keep checking thinking the same thing but not yet. And the morning AFD focused almost entirely about the warm up.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I imagine at some point very soon the Seattle NWS will have to admit a bust for today and issue a WWA.

It remains to be seen if this will continue to be very localized as far as anything significant is concerned. No doubt the radar looks promising.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I imagine at some point very soon the Seattle NWS will have to admit a bust for today and issue a WWA.

 

 

The last band of flurries appears to be moving through now... and with some sun mixed in.   Shut down the city!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Trade you my 1/4" of freezing rain for your dusting of snow? :lol:

 

Looks exactly like what I had a week ago.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looks to me like a steady stream of moisture coming in off the strait. It's snowing pretty good between Everett and north Seattle.

 

Looks like its fading to the northwest of that... probably the main push right now.   

 

Sun is peaking out here as well.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Really is too bad we are not going to have a significant overrunning event.

 

#wastedcold

#storyofthelastseveralyears

As I've said...this area does better with cold snaps a little deeper into the winter. Still plenty of chances to come.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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And another large area of rain moving in on Christmas morning per the 12Z ECMWF.

 

850mb temp soaring up to +3C or +4C that morning.     50 degrees and pouring rain for opening presents.    :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like its fading to the northwest of that... probably the main push right now.   

 

Sun is peaking out here as well.  

 

No, it doesn't. Look at the cams at Coupeville, Port Townsend, and Port Angeles. That's where the moisture is coming from, and those places are all getting snow still.

A forum for the end of the world.

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No, it doesn't. Look at the cams at Coupeville, Port Townsend, and Port Angeles. That's where the moisture is coming from, and those places are all getting snow still.

 

 

If you watch the SEA radar loop... its pretty hard not to notice that main stuff up north has shifted inland and its fading behind it.   Some upslope areas around Port Angeles might see light snow all day with nothing on the radar.   

 

Main band pushing through now for inland areas.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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And another large area of rain moving in on Christmas morning per the 12Z ECMWF.

 

850mb temp soaring up to +3C or +4C that morning.     50 degrees and pouring rain for opening presents.    :lol:

 

Is that actually funny to you? Are you not aware that it frequently rains during December here? 

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No, it doesn't. Look at the cams at Coupeville, Port Townsend, and Port Angeles. That's where the moisture is coming from, and those places are all getting snow still.

Tim is just having a tough day...we all have them from time to time.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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If you watch the SEA radar loop... its pretty hard not to notice that main stuff up north has shifted inland and its fading behind it.   Some upslope areas around Port Angeles might see light snow all day with nothing on the radar.   

 

Main band pushing through now for inland areas.

 

You new to convergence zones?

A forum for the end of the world.

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Tim's back, baby!!!

 

 

Dude... I will always complain about Christmas Day being gross.    I watch it closely every year at this time.

 

I am not back... I never left.    

 

Should I throw a huge hissy fit like Jim?      :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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No, it doesn't. Look at the cams at Coupeville, Port Townsend, and Port Angeles. That's where the moisture is coming from, and those places are all getting snow still.

You need to put on your Tim colored glasses on dude!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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You need to put your Tim colored glasses on dude!

 

 

OK Jim... several inches coming your way!    Radar shows a massive c-zone heading right for Covington!    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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BTW I never consider a cold snap wasted cold. It's supposed to be cold in the winter so there is that. Lots of cold snaps end up dry in parts of the country that have colder winters also.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Dude... I will always complain about Christmas Day being gross. I watch it closely every year at this time.

 

I am not back... I never left.

 

Should I throw a huge hissy fit like Jim? :lol:

Christmas is far from set in stone...models have struggled...still 8 days out.
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Is that actually funny to you? Are you not aware that it frequently rains during December here? 

 

Yes... I am aware.   

 

I always hope for a snowy Christmas morning opening presents with a house full of people.     Sometimes it works... sometimes it does not.   But I always go through a short period of mourning when it becomes clear it will not happen this time around.   

 

A little more annoying this year because there have been so many days this month that would have been perfect for Christmas with no one here.     Like today!

 

Oh well.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yes... I am aware.

 

I always hope for a snowy Christmas morning opening presents with a house full of people. Sometimes it works... sometimes it does not. But I always go through a short period of mourning when it becomes clear it will not happen this time around.

 

A little more annoying this year because there have been so many days this month that would have been perfect for Christmas with no one here. Like today!

 

Oh well.

Have an early Christmas, get everyone here by tomorrow morning and get those presents open!
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Christmas is far from set in stone...models have struggled...still 8 days out.

 

 

Pretty clear trend in the last day.    Not what you want to see now that we are only a week out.   The 500mb pattern being shown now is not even close to favorable.   Absolutely to be expected after this current period.   Timing just sucks.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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