December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Snowing at an almost respectable clip right now.

 

The models showed you getting .01 inches today.    I bet they are totally wrong.    

[ShawniganLake]

18z NAM is back taking tuesdays low thru Washington state. Could be a surprise snowfall for southern BC if that happens. Models are all over the place with that low placement.

[snow_wizard]

One last thing...people need to remember many of our great winters had little or no snow up to this point.  The despair on here seems a bit misguided to me.

[snow_wizard]

18z NAM is back taking tuesdays low thru Washington state. Could be a surprise snowfall for southern BC if that happens. Models are all over the place with that low placement.

 

There will probably still be cold in the Fraser Canyon at that point so it could be interesting.  

[Deweydog]

One last thing...people need to remember many of our great winters had little or no snow up to this point. The despair on here seems a bit misguided to me.

Are you talking to yourself?

[TT-SEA]

One last thing...people need to remember many of our great winters had little or no snow up to this point.  The despair on here seems a bit misguided to me.

 

 

Despair police!  

 

Do you find it ironic that you throw tantrums and hissy fits and then fall off a cliff every year... but then also get annoyed when people are not responding to your optimism?     

[Bryant]

18z NAM is back taking tuesdays low thru Washington state. Could be a surprise snowfall for southern BC if that happens. Models are all over the place with that low placement.

Wouldn't surprise me... these lows have been painfully close for all of whatcom county. Need this pattern to change

[Weather101]

There is a such thing as wasted cold #nosnowbutcold

[snow_wizard]

Are you talking to yourself?

 

I'm referring to a few members.

 

Funny how nobody seems to want to hear how things are looking promising again late in the month.

[snow_wizard]

There is a such thing as wasted cold #nosnowbutcold

 

Not if you like cold in general.  You have all had snow up there anyway.

[Perturbed Member]

Snowing at an almost respectable clip right now.

 

Enough to accumulate?

[snow_wizard]

Wouldn't surprise me... these lows have been painfully close for all of whatcom county. Need this pattern to change

 

No doubt a reset is coming next week.

[The Swamp]

Light snow falling in the swamp now.

[snow_wizard]

Enough to accumulate?

 

Just a dusting.

[Weather101]

Not if you like cold in general. You have all had snow up there anyway.

But for everyone else in general, I would rather see everyone get cold and snow. It's slightly annoying when it's cold all week and people get rain out of it lol wasted cold air and you're never sure when you will get it again.

[TT-SEA]

Just a dusting.

 

 

That is being very generous.   

[Phil]

Love how it looks at day 10.

 

get_orig_img (1).gif

Eh, that looks primed for a discontinuous retrogression, which wouldn't be a good thing verbatim. End result there would be a trough in the SE US and GOA, ridge over the Intermountain West.

 

Not saying I agree with it, FWIW.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Pretty similar results around here... 2-3 weeks of cold weather with snow on the ground but not much elsewhere.   Consistently cold enough to freeze the pond by our house.   

 

Difference was in the timing... this year was about 2 weeks earlier.  

It may be similar for the immediate Puget Sound area, but up here it hasn't been remotely comparable. There was no Fraser outflow to speak of last December.

[Jesse]

I am reading through the first part of the January 2016 thread... you were talking about impressive cold, ponds freezing, tons of potential coming, etc.

 

Very much like right now... just a couple weeks earlier than last year.

This has easily been a more impressive and long lasting cold snap. Compare the numbers for this one with BLI, or even PDX. Not to mention the east side and the Fraser Valley. They have been in the icebox non-stop for almost two weeks. Different animals.

 

Just because Jim's rhetoric has been somewhat similar doesn't mean the weather has.

[TT-SEA]

It may be similar for the immediate Puget Sound area, but up here it hasn't been remotely comparable. There was no Fraser outflow to speak of last December.

 

Very true... cannot remember when Bellingham had snow on the ground for this long.  

[Jesse]

There is a such thing as wasted cold #nosnowbutcold

Only for those who can't appreciate cold on its own.

 

#everyoneisdifferent

[Jesse]

18z NAM is back taking tuesdays low thru Washington state. Could be a surprise snowfall for southern BC if that happens. Models are all over the place with that low placement.

I'm guessing this means the average temps at day 10 are no longer a lock?

[snow_wizard]

Eh, that looks primed for a discontinuous retrogression, which wouldn't be a good thing verbatim. End result there would be a trough in the SE US and GOA, ridge over the Intermountain West.

 

Not saying I agree with it, FWIW.

 

I totally disagree.

[Phil]

I was pretty surprised at the improvement on the ECMWF ensemble today. I was almost wondering if I was jumping the gun, but that gives me some confidence.

 

Somehow what we have been through seems more like a warning shot than the main course. Such a different flavor to it than recent Arctic outbreaks. The fact we have not gone for more than a two day period without lowland snow for about two weeks now is pretty interesting.

The mid-January AO tank is starting to look more legitimate based on the projected progression of the tropical convection and (eventual) moderate stratospheric shake-up. Could set the stage for another round of more amplified EPO/NPAC blocking, as opposed to the flattened roadkill that is the current regime.

[snow_wizard]

This has easily been a more impressive and long lasting cold snap. Compare the numbers for this one with BLI, or even PDX. Not to mention the east side and the Fraser Valley. They have been in the icebox non-stop for almost two weeks. Different animals.

 

Just because Jim's rhetoric has been somewhat similar doesn't mean the weather has.

 

Unquestionable this cold snap has been a different animal than recent years.

[snow_wizard]

The mid-January AO tank is starting to look more legitimate based on the projected progression of the tropical convection and (eventual) moderate stratospheric shake-up. Could set the stage for another round of more amplified EPO/NPAC blocking, as opposed to the flattened roadkill that is the current regime.

 

I still wouldn't say the pattern we have been in is terrible.  It has delivered some pretty impressive cold here and quite a bit of snow for some.

[Jesse]

The mid-January AO tank is starting to look more legitimate based on the projected progression of the tropical convection and (eventual) moderate stratospheric shake-up. Could set the stage for another round of more amplified EPO/NPAC blocking, as opposed to the flattened roadkill that is the current regime.

The flattened roadkill that brought many people on this forum snow and two weeks of wintery weather?

[snow_wizard]

Only for those who can't appreciate cold on its own.

 

#everyoneisdifferent

 

#coldisfreekingaswsomeandwewillhavealotmorethiswinter

[Phil]

I totally disagree.

With my analysis of the long range 12z ECMWF? Why?

 

I think it's fairly clear what the progression is there. Classic secession of the poleward AAM transport followed by rossby wave elongation, which would be followed by the clockwise downstream mass field rotation.

[snow_wizard]

But for everyone else in general, I would rather see everyone get cold and snow. It's slightly annoying when it's cold all week and people get rain out of it lol wasted cold air and you're never sure when you will get it again.

 

I have already stated many times why we will have a lot of cold this winter and how early season cold snaps are less reliable for delivering widespread epic snow events.

 

Am I not correct you have had a lot of snow anyway?

[MossMan]

No doubt a reset is coming next week.

This looks wonderful!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

[snow_wizard]

With my analysis of the long range 12z ECMWF? Why?

 

I think it's fairly clear what the progression is there. Classic secession of the poleward AAM transport followed by rossby wave elongation, which would be followed by the clockwise downstream mass field rotation.

 

I just think the block on the 12z Euro looked pretty favorable is all.

[Weather101]

Only for those who can't appreciate cold on its own.

 

#everyoneisdifferent

#illgetonyourlevel

[Jesse]

I just think the block on the 12z Euro looked pretty favorable is all.

No one can extrapolate the models beyond day 10 like Phil. Even if you're right, you're wrong.

[snow_wizard]

This looks wonderful!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

 

Lot of favorable signs popping up.  I pray that a month from now we will all be smiling.  There is no question when some score and some don't it gets funky on here.

[Phil]

The flattened roadkill that brought many people on this forum snow and two weeks of wintery weather?

Nope, not talking about the past.

 

The roadkill being the flattened, broad anticyclone that will dominate the remainder of December. The earlier NPAC block was quite amplified and it occurred thanks to the weak PV/NAM and corresponding U-wind integral present at the time of its inception.

[The Swamp]

I have scored today. A handful of flakes every minute or so. I'm pretty happy.

[HighlandExperience]

But for everyone else in general, I would rather see everyone get cold and snow. It's slightly annoying when it's cold all week and people get rain out of it lol wasted cold air and you're never sure when you will get it again.

Agreed. Would be sad if this was the height of our winter weather this year.

[Phil]

I still wouldn't say the pattern we have been in is terrible. It has delivered some pretty impressive cold here and quite a bit of snow for some.

Maybe I should have been clearer. I'm NOT talking about the blocking that's dominated the last few weeks. That was highly amplified stuff.

 

I'm talking about the regime we will be moving into over the next 2-3 weeks, which will be pathetic for the most part.

[Jesse]

Maybe I should have been clearer. I'm NOT talking about the blocking that's dominated the last few weeks. That was highly amplified stuff.

 

I'm talking about the regime we will be moving into over the next 2-3 weeks, which will be pathetic for the most part.

Gotcha.

 

Before going back to balls to the walls epicness in January right?