December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

This whole winter has been good for them, go figure

Early next week looks potentially snowy in the Vancouver area again too. They have definitely been winning the snow lottery this year.

[van city]

Looks like Phil is a problem.

No, this show that you care of what you do.

[Bryant]

Early next week looks potentially snowy in the Vancouver area again too. They have definitely been winning the snow lottery this year.

There are a few members up there from the forum, at least someone gets to score.

[snow_wizard]

Looking really good for the East Puget Sound Lowlands tomorrow night.  Very wet run and we get good cold air advection going into it.  The WRF shows 1000 foot temps below freezing for this area tomorrow night.  Could easily be 2 to 4 inches if this verifies.

[Dave]

Question is, will I see snow?

You will receive 2 inches of snow.  Just enough to freshen up your slowly depleting, sloppy snow pack.

[snow_wizard]

I would actually call this a poor mans November 1996.  Very similar situation, but we had a bit colder air to work with on that.

[HighlandExperience]

Looking really good for the East Puget Sound Lowlands tomorrow night. Very wet run and we get good cold air advection going into it. The WRF shows 1000 foot temps below freezing for this area tomorrow night. Could easily be 2 to 4 inches if this verifies.

Yup WRF still looks decent. Pushing 2-4 inches for east king county maybe.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WRF shows some light snow in the Salem area Saturday morning. 

[ShawniganLake]

I would actually call this a poor mans November 2006.  Very similar situation, but we had a bit colder air to work with on that.

I would say more than just a bit colder. We had a 23/19 day here with that.

[Phil]

00z GFS even more impressive with the Eurasian ridge relative to its 18z run. Will see what the clown range consequences are shortly..

[TT-SEA]

I would say more than just a bit colder. We had a 23/19 day here with that.

 

 

 

I was thinking the same thing... not just a bit colder.   There was WAY more cold air to work with back then.  

[ShawniganLake]

GEM says

[Bryant]

[Trainwreck]

You will receive 2 inches of snow. Just enough to freshen up your slowly depleting, sloppy snow pack.

Longest I've seen snow on the ground here in the 8 years I've lived here. It snowed on December 5th and haven't seen my grass since. Still about 6" give or take around everywhere. Usual suspects, north sides of buildings, streets with trees to the south etc. etc. still have more than that. And the beat seems to go on and on for awhile more still.

[TT-SEA]

Well... once again the models were way too aggressive in showing the depth of the cold air intrusion.     Common theme this winter.  

[Bryant]

At least it came around too what the EURO was showing. EURO showed more earlier. Will see

I was referring to the screw zone north of the border

[liquidsnow]

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Seattle WA

830 PM PST Thu Dec 22 2016

 

.SYNOPSIS...A large, somewhat cool upper level trough approaching the region will bring lovely 33-35 degree light rain at times to Western Washington later tonight through Saturday. We at the NWS are gleefully removing any possibility of lowland snow from our forecast.  An upper level ridge will build over the region Christmas Day with cool and dry weather with no possibility of snow. An active snowless weather pattern will resume early next week as a mild westerly flow aloft directs a series of weather systems across the region with no possibility of lowland snow.

.SHORT TERM...RADAR shows the precip shield approaching the area. This should fall as 35 degree rain much to our delight. We expect Tim to see some slush but otherwise expect periodic rain with the SW flow aloft. Accumulations will be light, ranging from a few hundredths of an inch of rain along the coast and over the north interior, to 1 to 4 tenths around Puget Sound and over the SW interior.

LONG TERM…Mild westerly flow takes over for more rain all next week. Fortunately  temperatures rise into the upper 40’s and low 50’s so no precip should fall as snow in the lowlands

Very Warm Regards,

NWS met.

[snow_wizard]

I meant 1996.

[Deweydog]

Well... once again the models were way too aggressive in showing the depth of the cold air intrusion. Common theme this winter.

I thought I heard they were constantly trending colder at the last minute?

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is just as good if not a bit better than the 12z.  I am becoming a believer in this event.

[snow_wizard]

Well... once again the models were way too aggressive in showing the depth of the cold air intrusion.     Common theme this winter.  

 

What is this in reference to?  

[Dave]

Longest I've seen snow on the ground here in the 8 years I've lived here. It snowed on December 5th and haven't seen my grass since. Still about 6" give or take around everywhere. Usual suspects, north sides of buildings, streets with trees to the south etc. etc. still have more than that. And the beat seems to go on and on for awhile more still.

I'm heading to Bend on Saturday.  Hope to see some freshness to the snowpack.  My sister got 18" in the last storm and said she still has plenty left, but it isn't pretty.  I think elevation may be a factor more this time than the last storm.  I'll say 3 - 4" for Bend, and ~ 2 inches for Redmond.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

 

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Seattle WA

830 PM PST Thu Dec 22 2016

 

.SYNOPSIS...A large, somewhat cool upper level trough approaching the region will bring lovely 33-35 degree light rain at times to Western Washington later tonight through Saturday. We at the NWS are gleefully removing any possibility of lowland snow from our forecast.  An upper level ridge will build over the region Christmas Day with cool and dry weather with no possibility of snow. An active snowless weather pattern will resume early next week as a mild westerly flow aloft directs a series of weather systems across the region with no possibility of lowland snow.

.SHORT TERM...RADAR shows the precip shield approaching the area. This should fall as 35 degree rain much to our delight. We expect Tim to see some slush but otherwise expect periodic rain with the SW flow aloft. Accumulations will be light, ranging from a few hundredths of an inch of rain along the coast and over the north interior, to 1 to 4 tenths around Puget Sound and over the SW interior.

LONG TERM…Mild westerly flow takes over for more rain all next week. Fortunately  temperatures rise into the upper 40’s and low 50’s so no precip should fall as snow in the lowlands

Very Warm Regards,

NWS met.

 

I would like to shank that dude.

[HighlandExperience]

The WRF is just as good if not a bit better than the 12z. I am becoming a believer in this event.

You will have to post the EURO smowmap tonight.

[Weather101]

[snow_wizard]

I would like to shank that dude.

 

I'm thinking it's a gag.

[snow_wizard]

The New Years cold wave is probably alive and well on this run.  It's evolving just like the 18z.

[Phil]

Beautiful dual anticyclonic breakers on the 00z GFS (EPO/NAO conduits to NAM). Arctic blast follows thereafter.

[Deweydog]

Top tier!

[Bryant]

[Heavy Snow]

The New Years cold wave is probably alive and well on this run. It's evolving just like the 18z.

Everything is finally coming together. This is what we hoped for all these months. We are close.....

[Deweydog]

No snow for Eugene two weeks from tomorrow!

[snow_wizard]

Beautiful dual anticyclonic breakers on the 00z GFS (EPO/NAO conduits to NAM). Arctic blast follows thereafter.

Majestic pattern for sure.

[Heavy Snow]

Beautiful dual anticyclonic breakers on the 00z GFS (EPO/NAO conduits to NAM). Arctic blast follows thereafter.

I can already see it now.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122300/336/prateptype_cat.na.png

[snow_wizard]

Where are the Seattle people? Snow is pretty likely tomorrow night!

[snow_wizard]

Could it actually be possible we could see a real January this winter? It's been Soooooooo long.

[FroYoBro]

Where are the Seattle people? Snow is pretty likely tomorrow night!

It is still a wait and see type thing. 

[Phil]

Majestic pattern for sure.

Rare to see the Pacific and Atlantic change modes simultaneously as depicted on the 00z GFS. Anticyclonic wavebreaking heaven this run.

 

The -ENSO/+QBO analogs do have the strongest blocking clustered in January, FWIW.

[MossMan]

Where are the Seattle people? Snow is pretty likely tomorrow night!

Most on here have been very negative about it so according to them there isn't much to talk about.

[Dave]

No snow for Eugene two weeks from tomorrow!

If everyone else scores, my local liquor store may get depleted of vodka completely.