ShawniganLake Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Is it farther east or farther west. I am confused. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 My brother has lived in Baker for over 20 years and he said it is by far the most impressive run of cold weather and snow depth he has seen. He also happens to be the editor of the newspaper and many old timers echo that sentiment. He got another 5" yesterday for a total of over 2' on the ground. They are plowing roads, trucking the berms out of town and doing it all over againWow a true old time winter Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Is it farther east or farther west. I am confused.About the same. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Is it farther east or farther west. I am confused. Neither of real consequence for now. More right tilt toward the west day 4. Cut-off slightly east 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Is it farther east or farther west. I am confused.It's almost identical. The main difference is the ridge has a more positive tilt to it allowing the trough to dig more thus allowing it to be a little further west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Day 5 - Would like to see 00z dig this further west/southwest. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122812/120/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Euro is still pretty moisture starved with the first shot of cold air it would appear. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 The upper level PV is much stronger this run..not sure how it'll affect things yet, so far the wavetrain is fighting it pretty hard so no huge changes. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Yep...cold and dry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Today's 12z a tad warmer than yesterday's. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Ridge is definitely further east than yesterday's 12z at day 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 About the same. The "is it further east or west?" is the new "is the glass half empty or half full?" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Ridge tilts a bit too much due to slightly less amplification Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 850's still around -12 for most of us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Today's 12z a tad warmer than yesterday's. no, that's not true, that's impossible!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Ridge tilts a bit too much due to slightly less amplificationslight movement towards the gfs. Hence my reasoning not to completely throw it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 The "is it further east or west?" is the new "is the glass half empty or half full?"Have never understood the fretting over 75mi wobbles. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 no, that's not true, that's impossible!!!Maybe -12 instead of -13. Big deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Nothing is farther east. The PV aloft is just stronger so the poleward wave breaking and mass fluxes are flattened a bit. Basically the ridge overturns/gets knocked down a bit, but it's mostly temporary I think, seeing the next wavebreak following on its heels. No biggie in the long run, IMO. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Anything beyond hour 120 isn't going to be completely accurate anyway. Chill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 slight movement towards the gfs. Hence my reasoning not to completely throw it out.850's are -12c at hour 120 compared to -10c on the 12z yesterday at PDX. Facts are hard. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl Bonner Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Day 5 - Would like to see 00z dig this further west/southwest. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122812/120/500h_anom.na.pngLooks slightly colder AND slightly further south than yesterday....hmmm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 slight movement towards the gfs. Hence my reasoning not to completely throw it out.What? It trended completely to the Euro through day 6. Yes, threw it out until it handled the pattern correctly as the Euro has. Now we have agreement or a blend.. Day 6 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122812/144/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Euro is still pretty moisture starved with the first shot of cold air it would appear. Not looking good for more than a spotty Tr-1" for most of us. I've made my peace with it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 What? It trended completely to the Euro through day 6. Yes, threw it out until it handled the pattern correctly as the Euro has. Now we have agreement or a blend.. Day 6 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122812/144/500h_anom.na.pngLooks like December 2013 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl Bonner Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 YESTERDAY: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122712/144/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 http://i.imgur.com/TJM6FAU.jpg Cars won't do...I would recommend you folks get Siberian huskies and a sled asap. Quickly! Buffalo NY? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Looks like a decent pv at 144, I'm no expert on teleconnections, but Looks like our cross polar flow is getting squeezed a lot. May not bode well later on. I would love to hear your thoughts on that timeframe Phil. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Not looking good for more than a spotty Tr-1" for most of us. I've made my peace with it.Too early to make any accurate accumulation predictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 slight movement towards the gfs. Hence my reasoning not to completely throw it out. ?? The GFS obviously caved pretty dramatically to the Euro. It appears that that little battle is over. Models are locking in now on the early next week timeframe and there likely won't be a lot of room for many dramatic changes. 12z model data all in pretty nice agreement now, as one would expect at this juncture. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 What? It trended completely to the Euro through day 6. Yes, threw it out until it handled the pattern correctly as the Euro has. Now we have agreement or a blend.. Day 6 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122812/144/500h_anom.na.pngA blend would imply that it moved to somewhat of a compromise would it not. That's all I ever said would happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 PDX not making 26/27 high temp with east wind and major blast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Nothing is farther east. The PV aloft is just stronger so the poleward wave breaking and mass fluxes are flattened a bit. Basically the ridge overturns/gets knocked down a bit, but it's mostly temporary I think, seeing the next wavebreak following on its heels. No biggie in the long run, IMO. Yeah, the very slight trend east might be a good thing because the retrogression of the ridge wont be too far west. That was my only concern going forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Not looking good for more than a spotty Tr-1" for most of us. I've made my peace with it.Our best hope is before the front passes. Downslope NNE winds always kill our chances here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 PDX not making 26/27 high temp with east wind and major blast.Maybe colder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Looks like December 2013Pretty similar. Should put Flatiron's theory that timing is everything to the test. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I'm all for fair and balance commentary but can we all please have the facts before hitting those square boxes?? At hour 138, the euro has PDX at -13c 850mb temps. Compare that to last night when it was -11c for the same time. Things are NOT trending warmer. 5 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 The PV aloft is much, much stronger after D5. Interesting, but might not mean much. Looks like the Eurasian/NATL wavebreak failed, hence the PV maxes earlier in baratropic mode. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Too early to make any accurate accumulation predictions. A bit, but it'd probably take a fairly sizable 500mb shift west at this point to ignite much juice ahead of the switch to offshore flow. With the models now locking in things appear pretty set for what would likely be a fairly uneventful transition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 no, that's not true, that's impossible!!!You're a mess, sailor. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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