Phil Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Good or bad?Tim would like it. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Definitely a little stronger with the Friday shortcake. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I like the trends with the 00z and 12z model suites...not a lot of changes in the nearer term (over the next week or so) but it's increasingly likely we are looking at an even longer period of cool to cold temps...the 11-15 day 500 mb composites are looking very good for continued arctic air into the NW US courtesy of a high-latitude Rex block along 160 W...there's good model agreement between the GFS/Euro/CMC ensembles. Given the increasing likelihood of a period of moisture around Jan 6-8 it's plausible that we go into a second blast with snowcover. Ensemble means are hinting at this scenario, though there's the usual noise as well in the 11-15...both GFS and Euro ensemble mean suggests highs at or below 38 through the 11-15 day period. I find the pattern stability and longevity to be rather astounding from a meteorological perspective...not that a 2-3 week duration Rex block hasn't occurred in previous winters but that it appears we will have one in the "sweet" spot for 10-14 days (maybe longer). With snowcover there's real potential for records, especially if we can keep the jet suppressed into California and produce some clear/calm nights. I'm reasonably confident any significant period of near normal temps will be put on hold until closer to mid-month at the earliest. Current model output and vendor guidance suggests a mean temperature departure in the neighborhood of -10 to -11 F at PDX during the first two weeks of January.Hold onto your butts... 8 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 18z Friday looks to have a little more punch to it but looks to warm for snow.... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Dang.... cut-off better, but block a touch too close.... shortwave not digging as great. Block needs to tilt real soon. It might be better for us though after day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Not liking the 18 so far. Moving east. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Apples - OrangesThat's a thing of beauty Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 18z Friday looks to have a little more punch to it but looks to warm for snow....Friday never looked like a snow maker in the lowlands. Generally a sharper Friday trough has been boding well for more arctic penetration later in the run, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Thanks for the update guys. Found wifi at this little place in chesaw!My brother and his wife lived in Chesaw for a couple of years back in the mid 1990s. They couldn't earn a decent living over there. So, they moved back to Western Wa. I know they still miss it. I remember the stars on a moonless night over in Chesaw. It was like they were in 3d. It was absolutely mesmorizing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Not liking the 18 so far. Moving east.The coldest stuff moves a little to the east toward midweek on even the best runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 12z GFS-Parallel just came in and it looks good. I'll post about it in a bit unless somebody gets to it sooner. I know it's in beta version for December 2016. Anybody know how soon it will go live? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 18z looks a little colder for Sunday, better scenario for potential snow hanging around since it pretty much eliminates the southerly gradients that day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 18z looks to be another step toward the euro through Sunday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I like the trends with the 00z and 12z model suites...not a lot of changes in the nearer term (over the next week or so) but it's increasingly likely we are looking at an even longer period of cool to cold temps...the 11-15 day 500 mb composites are looking very good for continued arctic air into the NW US courtesy of a high-latitude Rex block along 160 W...there's good model agreement between the GFS/Euro/CMC ensembles. Given the increasing likelihood of a period of moisture around Jan 6-8 it's plausible that we go into a second blast with snowcover. Ensemble means are hinting at this scenario, though there's the usual noise as well in the 11-15...both GFS and Euro ensemble mean suggests highs at or below 38 through the 11-15 day period. I find the pattern stability and longevity to be rather astounding from a meteorological perspective...not that a 2-3 week duration Rex block hasn't occurred in previous winters but that it appears we will have one in the "sweet" spot for 10-14 days (maybe longer). With snowcover there's real potential for records, especially if we can keep the jet suppressed into California and produce some clear/calm nights. I'm reasonably confident any significant period of near normal temps will be put on hold until closer to mid-month at the earliest. Current model output and vendor guidance suggests a mean temperature departure in the neighborhood of -10 to -11 F at PDX during the first two weeks of January. Hold onto your butts...Thanks for your detailed analysis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 So far, PV/U-wind integral weaker on 18z vs 12z, opposite relative to the 12z ECMWF in that regard. Good news. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Friday never looked like a snow maker in the lowlands. Generally a sharper Friday trough has been boding well for more arctic penetration later in the run, though.I know.... just looked a bit juicier ... I never expected snow from it but the possibility "could" be there. Specially higher terrain. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I like the trends with the 00z and 12z model suites...not a lot of changes in the nearer term (over the next week or so) but it's increasingly likely we are looking at an even longer period of cool to cold temps...the 11-15 day 500 mb composites are looking very good for continued arctic air into the NW US courtesy of a high-latitude Rex block along 160 W...there's good model agreement between the GFS/Euro/CMC ensembles. Given the increasing likelihood of a period of moisture around Jan 6-8 it's plausible that we go into a second blast with snowcover. Ensemble means are hinting at this scenario, though there's the usual noise as well in the 11-15...both GFS and Euro ensemble mean suggests highs at or below 38 through the 11-15 day period. I find the pattern stability and longevity to be rather astounding from a meteorological perspective...not that a 2-3 week duration Rex block hasn't occurred in previous winters but that it appears we will have one in the "sweet" spot for 10-14 days (maybe longer). With snowcover there's real potential for records, especially if we can keep the jet suppressed into California and produce some clear/calm nights. I'm reasonably confident any significant period of near normal temps will be put on hold until closer to mid-month at the earliest. Current model output and vendor guidance suggests a mean temperature departure in the neighborhood of -10 to -11 F at PDX during the first two weeks of January. Hold onto your butts... An error occurredYou have reached your quota of positive votes for the day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Tropical forcing does look different this run. Might explain the poleward shift in the STJ. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 12z GFS-Para shows some moisture as the colder air sets in for PDX Metro Sunday night. Then colder air settles in with moisture chances throughout the run. Here are days 10, 12, 14 and 16. Good pattern with nice block and developing SE ridge. Still a long ways out though but fun to look at. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122812/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122812/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122812/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122812/gfsp_z500a_nhem_41.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122812/gfsp_z500a_nhem_45.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122812/gfsp_z500a_nhem_47.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122812/gfsp_z500a_nhem_53.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 18z GFS shows considerable more snow for King County by hr 90 than 12z. 3-4 inches vs. trace-2 inches.How about Snohomish Co? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Impressive agreement between the 12z GEM and 18z GFS for Jan 6th. GFShttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122818/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_33.png GEMhttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016122812/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_32.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 The block on the 18Z is absolutely insane. Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 18z is officially a cold little run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 The GFS is officially leading the way again! Clearly has the best handle on the pattern. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EA_TTD Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 The block on the 18Z is absolutely insane.It's BJ Raji and Vince Wilfork all rolled into one! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Impressive agreement between the 12z GEM and 18z GFS for Jan 6th. GFShttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122818/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_33.png GEMhttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016122812/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_32.png Looks similar to the L that dropped a nice snowstorm to the lower half of the Willamette Valley Dec. 2013. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 The GFS is officially leading the way again! Clearly has the best handle on the pattern.Nah, it just moved toward the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 D**n. That would be so amazing if it actually verified. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Pretty similar. Should put Flatiron's theory that timing is everything to the test.You're referencing me a frightening amount lately. I'll take it as a sign of deep respect, bordering on man crush. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 You're referencing me a frightening amount lately. I'll take it as a sign of deep respect, bordering on man crush. No one is immune from my crushing banter. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Friday never looked like a snow maker in the lowlands. Generally a sharper Friday trough has been boding well for more arctic penetration later in the run, though.Jaya had mentioned it as potentially bringing snow to the Puget Sound region. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 PDX has turned into quite the little fog hog lately. Still in the 30's there, sunny and 45 here. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 18z was interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 The GFS is officially leading the way again! Clearly has the best handle on the pattern.Clearly.... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Jaya had mentioned it as potentially bringing snow to the Puget Sound region.Especially in the PSCZ areas and of elevation! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 That block was the size of 65-70% of the United States! I've never see anything even close to that on any model run in my life. This is how you get a 1950, 1862, or 1899......... wow 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122818/gfs_T850_nwus_42.pngOh my! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 No one is immune from my crushing banter.It's OK to admit you have favorites. Especially with your kids. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 That block was the size of 65-70% of the United States! I've never see anything even close to that on any model run in my life. This is how you get a 1950, 1862, or 1899......... wow Your best post ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 That block was the size of 65-70% of the United States! I've never see anything even close to that on any model run in my life. This is how you get a 1950, 1862, or 1899......... wowCould this be it...what we have been waiting for our entire lives??? i'm feeling all tingly inside! And thanks for adding me to your facebook group! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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