December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[luvssnow_spokane]

The lows slides down over us and float out to the central Oregon coast and just sits there. Going to rack up some serous snow in Southern Oregon. Go figure!! Congrats to them ... AGAIN! 

 

EDIT: non-fantasy range snow map...

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Its not ten yet. Also your snow started later than ECMWF said.

 

 

My snow started right on time... before 4 p.m.

 

I doubted it and then it happened.   

 

There is not going to be any snow down there before 10.   That c-zone is not even favorable for me.  

[snow_wizard]

I have run through this scenario a thousand times and it all looks good. So far it's going exactly as planned. The current temp of 36 is fine for being in the SW wind phase of this. Thankfully the mesoscale models all agree the low center goes just to the east of this area. We always do better on the back side of a low in cases like this.

[TT-SEA]

And the WRF says we are all done after 10 p.m.  

 

Everyone in King County.   

 

https://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wrfd2_pcp1+//84/1

[snow_wizard]

The lows slides down over us and float out to the central Oregon coast and just sits there. Going to rack up some serous snow in Southern Oregon. Go figure!! Congrats to them ... AGAIN! 

 

EDIT: non-fantasy range snow map...

 

gfs_asnow_nwus_12.png

I'll have to see it to believe for Southern OR Coast.

[FroYoBro]

Now some big flakes mixed in. The south wind seems to be a bit breezier. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

South wind is gusting 20-25 up the Willamette Valley...

 

Also the 00z GFS is a touch warmer.

[luvssnow_spokane]

And the WRF says we are all done after 10 p.m.  

 

Everyone in King County.   

 

https://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wrfd2_pcp1+//84/1

 

Fairly likely by looking at the radar and current way things are playing out. I give it about 80% of being spot on.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The wind in the gorge is going to be insane Wednesday

[luvssnow_spokane]

I have run through this scenario a thousand times and it all looks good. So far it's going exactly as planned. The current temp of 36 is fine for being in the SW wind phase of this. Thankfully the mesoscale models all agree the low center goes just to the east of this area. We always do better on the back side of a low in cases like this.

Don't you think a Thousand times is a little excessive?

[TT-SEA]

Fairly likely by looking at the radar and current way things are playing out. I give it about 80% of being spot on.

 

 

I am thinking it looks right as well.    

[luvssnow_spokane]

Warm up continues!! it is happening!! YAH!! Bring it this has all be so heartbreaking I just want it over with. PLEASE!!

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah 00z is a lot warmer again...Saying its not doesn't make it true.

[TT-SEA]

Encouraging to see it's snowing in Snoqualmie Valley. I was half expecting it to be rain. Very slushy/snowy back roads. Also snowing up on Redmond Ridge.

 

 

Looks like its about to end.  

 

C-zone moving north and away from me.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

South wind is gusting 20-25 up the Willamette Valley...

 

Also the 00z GFS is a touch warmer.

At hr 84 the 528 line is further south than the 18z.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah 00z is a lot warmer again...Saying its not doesn't make it true.

 

 

Be positive!    

[FroYoBro]

South wind is definitely getting pretty strong here. Still have snowflakes mixed with the rain. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Huge improvements from just a few runs ago....           -- Honestly, such a step backward it is almost comical or a nightmare.

 

Tonights Run

 

 

Previous Run

 

[BLI snowman]

Yeah 00z is a lot warmer again...Saying its not doesn't make it true.

 

That low is seriously going to end up around northern Vancouver Island. It's rapidly trending that way.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Good Lord... Give it a rest. I think you need to step back from the keyboard for a bit.

 

Crack open that champagne bottle a little early.

I am fine... Thanks..  what are your thoughts on the run, would love to hear it, rather than trying to get me drunk.  

[TT-SEA]

Sinking feeling this event is going to be a huge bust for King County in relation to what was expected.    

[chopper 918]

Sinking feeling this event is going to be a huge bust for King County in relation to what was expected.

Ha!! You think??!!

[Laura]

I've got about a half inch here in Oregon City.   The wind is pretty strong and its 32 degrees.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Here is Thursday... I will leave out my thoughts on this one. You decide. 

 

 

[Brennan]

Total snow through tomorrow night per the 00Z GFS.

 

4" for bellingham would shock me. Its pouring rain here right now. 37 at bli

[luvssnow_spokane]

Sinking feeling this event is going to be a huge bust for King County in relation to what was expected.    

Ya think... Reality bites but it is what it is. 

[HighlandExperience]

4" for bellingham would shock me. Its pouring rain here right now. 37 at bli

 

Wow. Quite the arctic front. 

 

Seriously what is up with these weak arctic blasts recently. 

[Goducks09]

Mostly snow here now in Downtown PDX.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Friday... I am sure some will find this very promising or something like that. Keeping my opinions to myself... You decide.

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Warm up continues!! it is happening!! YAH!! Bring it this has all be so heartbreaking I just want it over with. PLEASE!!

 

gfs_T850_nwus_16.png

lots of snow on that map for puget sound

[luvssnow_spokane]

Wow. Quite the arctic front. 

 

Seriously what is up with these weak arctic blasts recently. 

Models have been showing this for some time - not a surprise. Some People just did not want to accept it. 

[TT-SEA]

Wow. Quite the arctic front. 

 

Seriously what is up with these weak arctic blasts recently. 

 

 

Arctic air will be blasting through the Sound tonight.   No way tomorrow is above freezing.  

[BLI snowman]

50 degree rain Friday?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The pattern shown on the 00z late next week would smash the canal with snow.

[MikeInEverett]

Can't believe there's a chance we see nothing worthwhile out of this considering what the models showed just a couple days ago.

[luvssnow_spokane]

lots of snow on that map for puget sound

Yeah overrunning snow to rain event do that... Is that what you hoped for? I didn't but my expectation are far to high.

[FroYoBro]

50 degree rain Friday?

 

I fell for the hype. I was really excited to experience an old school week of January weather. 

[TT-SEA]

Can't believe there's a chance we see nothing worthwhile out of this considering what the models showed just a couple days ago.

 

 

Becoming more and more likely.

 

Precip is winding down tonight and its 37 and pouring rain in Bellingham.    At least this event way overachieved.   Sure glad there was some trapped cold air earlier today... really making a difference now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This sucks. I hope at least Monday and Tuesday can be sub freezing, who knows...

[Skagit Weather]

My quarter inch of snow is rapidly disappearing with a 35F south wind and rain. So much for snow going into even a short cold spell.