December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Timmy]

my sister an brother in law are coming home ( they live with us)  from the airport.  they have been on the road for an hour, still an hour away (normally a 35 minute drive.

[HighlandExperience]

The thing I like is there is still precip shown well offshore in extreme north OR. I think there will be some flurries up here.

Give us table scraps

[epiceast]

Btw it's still somehow snowing in Boise... Might not change over in Bend or Redmond tonight despite the low getting very close/north of them. Can somebody give me a list of most historic Bend/Redmond snowstorms?

[HighlandExperience]

Snowing as far north as Castle Rock WA now.

[crf450ish]

11" new snow since the morning as of 4:15 at my house in Bend.

Thats badass. Just out of curiosity...whats the climate like there? Hot and dry summers and bitter cold moist winters?

[Goducks09]

Thats badass. Just out of curiosity...whats the climate like there? Hot and dry summers and bitter cold moist winters?

 

Yes - quite possibly the best place in Oregon for recreation and quality of life.  Can't wait to move there someday.

[Jesse]

my sister an brother in law are coming home ( they live with us) from the airport. they have been on the road for an hour, still an hour away (normally a 35 minute drive.

The windblown quarter inch heard 'round the world!

[crf450ish]

Hey by chance is anyone out there tracking the next system set to arrive Monday that COULD produce widespread snow? 

 

Ive only read the NWS forecast discussion..

 

 

Sunday night through Wednesday...The 12z GFS and ECMWF model runs

are showing the POTENTIAL for a moderate to heavy snow event
Monday night and Tuesday. Models are showing a low pressure system
tracking through the region with subtropical moisture getting
entrained into the system. This mild and wet system will be
overrunning cold air still in place resulting in the potential for
widespread snow. Possible is the key word this far out. The
previous ECMWF model run did not have as strong of a system
passing through and would like to see another day or two of models
holding on to this solution before having a lot of confidence.
With the Canadian and UKMET solutions also showing a system
tracking through confidence is high of some snow...but low on
amounts. Models also show the potential for a warm nose sneaking
into areas near the foothills of the Blue Mountains and possible
the Lewiston area which could result in snow changing to rain or
freezing rain but again confidence in this is low. Temperatures
should moderate closer to seasonal normals Tuesday and Wednesday.

[snow_wizard]

I was pretty impressed with the looks of the clouds here just before it got dark. Thick cloud shield with a lot of lower clouds already showing up. I'm feeling a bit more optimistic we will see something.

[snow_wizard]

Give us table scraps

The battle between Portland and Seattle snow events is nothing new. It always evens out and Seattle historically averages more. I'm just glad there appears to be a good chance of a cold snap between Christmas and New Years. Maybe even Christmas itself.

[HighlandExperience]

I was pretty impressed with the looks of the clouds here just before it got dark. Thick cloud shield with a lot of lower clouds already showing up. I'm feeling a bit more optimistic we will see something.

I'm cautiously optimistic

[BLI snowman]

The windblown quarter inch heard 'round the world!

Well over an inch here now. East wind sucks.

[Jesse]

Nice to see the radar filling in a bit north of the river. Coming down moderately now.

[Perturbed Member]

Some nice heavier precip looks to be wanting to enter PDX metro, maybe mostly the eastern metro. Hopefully we can get in on some of that action here on the west side too. 

[snow_wizard]

Current radar shows precip considerably NW of what was progged for this time. Very good news for Seattle. Amazingly the precip type shows snow well out over the ocean now. That wasn't the case a little bit ago. Maybe cold air over the ocean is enhancing things a bit?

[Perturbed Member]

Current radar shows precip considerably NW of what was progged for this time. Very good news for Seattle. Amazingly the precip type shows snow well out over the ocean now. That wasn't the case a little bit ago. Maybe cold air over the ocean is enhancing things a bit?

 

 

I was thinking the same when I saw the radar but wasn't sure if it was just my snow bias

[Goducks09]

Anyone have an update on the possible deformation band setting up overnight?

[snow_wizard]

Wind has shifted to straight northerly at SEA now. Less chance of down sloping problems with that. No question at all anything that falls will be snow.

[Kayla]

Anyone have an update on the possible deformation band setting up overnight?

 

Heavy bands moving into the metro area now. Models have been completely clueless thus far. 

[HighlandExperience]

Wind has shifted to straight northerly at SEA now. Less chance of down sloping problems with that. No question at all anything that falls will be snow.

Hopefully that helps things for us. Noticed the precip shield is just south of Olympia now. I'm sure that is virga though.

[Perturbed Member]

Mark has admitted that his .5 to 2 inches has pretty much already verified but we will get several more hours of snow so almost everyone is expected to go above that. Not too shocking of course. 

 

Mark pointed out that he didn't expect the precip to get this far north or as far offshore. Currently snowing and accumulating at the OR coast as well. This does bode well for you guys up north of course. 

[Goducks09]

Heavy bands moving into the metro area now. Models have been completely clueless thus far. 

 

Hopefully - looks like the back edge of precip has moved onto the coast.  Great storm so far though!

[Jesse]

Dumping here now.

[snow_wizard]

Hopefully that helps things for us. Noticed the precip shield is just south of Olympia now. I'm sure that is virga though.

Some has gotten into Pierce County. The fact it's still going over the ocean though is very good news. It was supposed to have been done by now in that area.

[snow_wizard]

Mark has admitted that his .5 to 2 inches has pretty much already verified but we will get several more hours of snow so almost everyone is expected to go above that. Not too shocking of course. 

 

Mark pointed out that he didn't expect the precip to get this far north or as far offshore. Currently snowing and accumulating at the OR coast as well. This does bode well for you guys up north of course.

Oh yes.

 

A dusting would be way better than none.

[Perturbed Member]

HRRR no longer showing much of a deformation band tonight for PDX sadly, it kind of exists but barely anything. Oh well, I'm mostly just relying on the radar at this point. 

[Deweydog]

Heavy bands moving into the metro area now. Models have been completely clueless thus far.

I don't think we can declare this a model bust yet. Looks like the wetter solutions won out, but that's not a bust.

[crf450ish]

Dang...radar is showing the snow quickly approaching my area. Was NOT expecting that at all. Impressed. 

[TT-SEA]

Precip on PDX radar is now shifting east... the radar just switched modes again meaning precip is getting lighter.   

 

This event might be mostly over in a couple hours from PDX northward... except maybe a few flurries in the air.

[Bodhijr]

Cold as a witch's teat in Washougal, and windy as heck. Nice little blizzard going on!

[snow_wizard]

Precip on PDX radar is now shifting east... the radar just switched modes again meaning precip is getting lighter.   

 

This event might be mostly over in a couple hours from PDX northward... except maybe a few flurries in the air.

I think we will get a little bit. That area over the ocean was not supposed to be there at this point according to the models.

[snow_wizard]

First virga or whatever it is getting close to Tacoma now.

[TT-SEA]

I think we will get a little bit. That area over the ocean was not supposed to be there at this point according to the models.

 

 

I think its going to take work to overcome our dry air mass and we do not have the moisture push we had last Thursday.

[Perturbed Member]

Precip on PDX radar is now shifting east... the radar just switched modes again meaning precip is getting lighter.   

 

This event might be mostly over in a couple hours from PDX northward... except maybe a few flurries in the air.

 

There appears to be a backedge to this near Newport, OR. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Some has gotten into Pierce County. The fact it's still going over the ocean though is very good news. It was supposed to have been done by now in that area.

Most everything way south of Olympia is still virga. I can testify it is not snowing anywhere in Pierce county currently.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I think we will get a little bit. That area over the ocean was not supposed to be there at this point according to the models.

Doubtful... just going to dry out before it gets here. I am about 90% sure we will see a flurry at most.

[Jesse]

Most everything way south of Olympia is still virga. I can testify it is not snowing anywhere in Pierce county currently.

A good chunk of Mount Rainier national park is in Pierce county. I would bet you are wrong.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Anyone notice the feature on the sat loop that has broken off the main storm and is headed nw toward us? Like i said a few hrs ago we might get a push of precip off the coast from west to east.

[snow_wizard]

I'm very intrigued by the surge of N to NNW winds moving down the Sound right now. That is going to kill most of the east wind that is still blowing in some areas very shortly. The areas with the north wind are colder, but with slightly higher dp than the places with easterlies. Could get some interesting dynamics going here.

[snow_wizard]

Anyone notice the feature on the sat loop that has broken off the main storm and is headed nw toward us? Like i said a few hrs ago we might get a push of precip off the coast from west to east.

I've noticed it and advertised it. It was not on the models.