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December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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Almost no northward progress now.   The winners and losers have probably been defined now.   If you live south of Kelso... enjoy!

Radar still looking good for quick northward movement to me.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Silverton in Marion County has picked up 2" in the past hour. 3" total at my Dad s place.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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That seems a bit premature given the fact that the models that DID show precip getting to King County didn't have it in the area till later tonight.

 

But OK.

Agreed, it was like showing 4 to 5 hours from now that it will reach pierce county line on the NAM. SO it is premature to say it won't happen but I do have my doubts outside what the models showed as I am sure most everyone does.

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At my location It has been snowing steady for the last 2 1/2 hours.  To put it in perspective  I have a heated rain gauge on my roof (doesn't normally get a lot of use...) but it has only recorded .04 melted precip.  Temperature has dropped steadily from 34F to 27F.  This will eclipse the 1/2" of snow I had last Thursday and 1/2" of snow I had last winter.

Location: 10 miles south of downtown Portland between Gladstone and Milwaukie

 

Elevation: 335'

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15" now in Redmond. Temp at a cold 12.4 here. Been snowing heavily since about 4 am this morning. ......... Wish they would plow more roads.

I'm at PDX and all flights to central Oregon have been cancelled.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Oh the good old days...

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
943 PM PST WED DEC 17 2008
EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-EVERETT AND VICINITY-
ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-
943 PM PST WED DEC 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST PUGET
SOUND LOWLANDS...EVERETT AND VICINITY...AND THE ADMIRALTY 
INLET AREA UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM
PST THURSDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW CONTINUED OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF SNOHOMISH COUNTY WHERE SOME LOCALES HAVE RECEIVED 1 TO
2 FEET OF SNOW SO FAR. ANOTHER 4 TO 7 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN SNOHOMISH COUNTY BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES BY THE SAME TIME
FRAME.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL MAKE
TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. 

IF YOU PLAN TO USE AN ALTERNATE SOURCE OF HEAT OR ELECTRICITY...
OBSERVE ALL SAFETY PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE
POISONING...ELECTROCUTION...OR A FIRE. PORTABLE GENERATORS SHOULD
ONLY BE USED OUTDOORS IN A DRY AND WELL VENTILATED AREA. DO NOT
USE A BARBECUE GRILL TO HEAT YOUR HOME AS IT CAN LEAD TO CARBON
MONOXIDE POISONING OR A FIRE.

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Building a snow pack east side

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Building a snow pack east side

 

That east wind this weekend coming out of the Gorge this weekend will be brutal.  Mark made the observation that the air coming out of the Gorge is coming from terrain that is entirely snow covered from PDX all the way to the north pole.  Sort of made me stop and ponder that thought for a little bit.  Kind of awesome!   :rolleyes:

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That east wind this weekend coming out of the Gorge this weekend will be brutal. Mark made the observation that the air coming out of the Gorge is coming from terrain that is entirely snow covered from PDX all the way to the north pole. Sort of made me stop and ponder that thought for a little bit. Kind of awesome! :rolleyes:

This winter has so much potential. Long range maps are great no reason for Seattle folks to despair

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Watching Mark on Fox12 is entertaining. This thing is over performing and he is having to backpedal on a number of fronts (no pun intended).

I'm at the airport and there isn't much here

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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You think it will make it up? The snow has been persistent but relatively light here.

 

Seems to be dying on its way north, which is what you'd expect with the setup.  There's definitely a drying signature on the radar right now with a wedge starting near the gorge.  Gradients should be relaxing soon so hopefully some heavier stuff will make it up here as the backside stuff progresses.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Precip still appears to be moving north IMO. All indications are that the HRRR/NAM have had the best handle on this so far and they did show precip making it to King county so I wouldn't discount it completely.

The thing I like is there is still precip shown well offshore in extreme north OR. I think there will be some flurries up here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I do find that funny, fb is going nuts about how everyone busted, and they are posting pictures of their dusting of snow...

Meanwhile The mid valley has 2 -4 " already and snow is now starting to cover I 5 at Albany where it was raining all day

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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11" new snow since the morning as of 4:15 at my house in Bend.

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Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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Lololol

A quarter inch at most

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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What a sh!tty day.  Half inch of ice.  Trees beginning to come down.  The NWS now says no snow accumulation.  It has snowed 4 times in PDX since the last snowflakes fell down here.   :(

Yuck. I would rather have dry cold than that.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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A quarter inch at most

I'm sure the wind has been a huge problem there.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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15" now in Redmond. Temp at a cold 12.4 here. Been snowing heavily since about 4 am this morning. ......... Wish they would plow more roads.

New snow or snow depth? My snow depth is 15", 11" new You should send your report to PDT. You're one of the higher totals around Bend/Redmond.

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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The jealousy is really starting to settle in for me now. A good snow event followed by a few days of sunny and cold is my realistic dream scenario.

The more I have looked into this stuff the more I realize early to mid December is bad for us getting snow during cold waves during a fair percentage of Arctic outbreaks. By late month the odds of us scoring are much higher when it gets cold. Very few failures in the late December through early Feb period. There is still a decent signal showing up in the models for a late month cold snap.

 

I know there are exceptions to what I have stated here, but there is quite a tendency toward what I have stated.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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This winter has so much potential. Long range maps are great no reason for Seattle folks to despair

I agree. Portland has killed Seattle many times during events in this time frame. We do much better up here with later cold snaps.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Really impressed with how cold things are out there. Down to 22º here and about 2" of new snow currently with precip rates really picking up now.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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I'm sure the wind has been a huge problem there.

Yeah, I am in an east wind location and it has been pretty windblown thus far. Hard to tell the exact amount I have gotten to this point.

 

Although as I type this it seems to be coming down a little harder. Winds have also been slacking. I'm intrigued at the deformation band potential later on.

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