December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[luvssnow_spokane]

A good chunk of Mount Rainier national park is in Pierce county. I would bet you are wrong.

you know what I meant silly boy. Tricks are for kids. Enjoy your snow!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

A good chunk of Mount Rainier national park is in Pierce county. I would bet you are wrong.

way wrong.

[snow_wizard]

I think its going to take work to overcome our dry air mass and we do not have the moisture push we had last Thursday.

We'll see. There are a few things happening that weren't expected.

[HighlandExperience]

Anyone notice the feature on the sat loop that has broken off the main storm and is headed nw toward us? Like i said a few hrs ago we might get a push of precip off the coast from west to east.

[TT-SEA]

I've noticed it and advertised it. It was not on the models.

 

 

Its been on the HRRR model on all day.

[MossMan]

28 degrees and cloudy at home.

[BLI snowman]

Over 2" now. Purdy.

[TT-SEA]

Great initialization on the 00Z NAM... looks like precip all the way up to Arlington at 5 p.m.!

 

Still waiting for snow total reports from our Seattle area members.    <_>

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016121500/nam4km_ref_frzn_nwus_1.png

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

So come to find out its pretty easy to see even the smallest snow flake with the 40000 lumens of light bar on my truck. Just went for a drive and there are flurries on the south end of kitsap county out by the hood canal.

[snow_wizard]

So come to find out its pretty easy to see even the smallest snow flake with the 40000 lumens of light bar on my truck. Just went for a drive and there are flurries on the south end of kitsap county out by the hood canal.

Yay!

 

Some nice looking stuff moving into Pacific County now. Precip well west of what was expected at this time.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Only a high of 32 here today.

[Trainwreck]

1919. Bend had 47" in 48 hours. One of the biggest ones that have ever happened.

[TT-SEA]

Yay!

 

Some nice looking stuff moving into Pacific County now. Precip well west of what was expected at this time.

 

 

Here was the HRRR from this morning for this evening... looks about right.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2016121417/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f11.png

[Phil]

That Scandinavia/Eurasia ridge signal is starting to look like the real deal after Xmas. The Arctic hiatus/+EPO probably won't last much beyond New Years.

[snow_wizard]

You can actually see some shear going on when you look at the radar in snow mode. Two different levels of precip...one moving from the SW and the other from the SE.

[Jesse]

Over 2" now. Purdy.

Probably about the same here, but it's been so windy it's harder to tell for sure.

[snow_wizard]

That Scandinavia/Eurasia ridge signal is starting to look like the real deal after Xmas. The Arctic hiatus/+EPO probably won't last much beyond New Years.

Good deal!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Here was the HRRR from this morning for this evening... looks about right.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2016121417/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f11.png

to far south.

[MossMan]

So come to find out its pretty easy to see even the smallest snow flake with the 40000 lumens of light bar on my truck. Just went for a drive and there are flurries on the south end of kitsap county out by the hood canal.

It's coming! We are going to get buried!

[Phil]

Good deal!

Yeah, this was probably just a warm-up. Surf zone amplifies around/just after New Years, blowing up the NPAC high again while the Scandinavian ridge attempts to nudge poleward.

 

End result: More winter.

[MossMan]

Yeah, this might've just been a warm-up. Surf zone amplifies around/just after New Years, blowing up the NPAC high again while the Scandinavian ridge attempts to nudge poleward.

 

End result: More winter.

Thanks Phil!!! This time I mean it!!

[TT-SEA]

to far south.

 

Looks pretty good to me...actually amazingly good.    I am impressed with the HRRR this time.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2016121417/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f10.png

 

 

Here is the actual radar... 

 

[Phil]

Thanks Phil!!! This time I mean it!!

Haha. You're welcome.

 

While the (initial) longitudinal location of the block may be somewhat challenging, eventually (through discontinuous retrogression), you will score an Arctic blast and some additional snowfall opportunities.

[FroYoBro]

Just took me 2 hours to get home. 217 was basically a parking lot. 

 

Pretty good snow here in Tigard. I'm guessing close to 3 inches. I'll measure later tonight. Looks like the snow is starting to move away now. 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the heavier snow just quickly moved out of the Portland area in the last hour.   

[MossMan]

Looks like the heavier snow just quickly moved out of the Portland area in the last hour.

And straight north towards Arlington!

[Jesse]

How's that deformation zone looking? I see that blob of precip moving in to the west now.

[TT-SEA]

How's that deformation zone looking? I see that blob of precip moving in to the west now.

 

 

I was just checking web cams... snowing pretty good around Staleys Junction on 26 and that might be coming your way.  

 

[bainbridgekid]

Hearing reports of some 3-4 hour commutes around Portland and even some people abandoning their cars on the interstate.

 

Also hearing there may still be school buses trying to get kids home.

 

Can anyone confirm?

 

Pretty amazing what a couple inches can do around here.

[FroYoBro]

Hearing reports of some 4 hour commutes around Portland and even some people abandoning their cars on the interstate.

 

Also hearing there may still be a lot of school buses trying to get kids home.

 

Can anyone confirm?

 

Pretty amazing what a couple inches can do around here.

 

I was just out in it. It is pretty terrible. Took me over two hours to get home. It normally would have taken 20 minutes. I saw 2 buses stuck on the side of the road with kids. I also helped push a few cars up a very slight incline in Tigard. It is a mess.

 

BUT I LIKE SNOW.

[Deweydog]

How's that deformation zone looking? I see that blob of precip moving in to the west now.

Doesn't look all that dynamic. Might get me to the two inch promise land. About 1/3 inch short, best I can tell.

[jcmcgaffey]

I think I saw a snowflake here in northwest seattle....it also could have just been drandruff from my head from the cold/dry weather.

[MossMan]

I think I saw a snowflake here in northwest seattle....it also could have just been drandruff from my head from the cold/dry weather.

[Jesse]

Doesn't look all that dynamic. Might get me to the two inch promise land. About 1/3 inch short, best I can tell.

It's about the same here too. It's been pretty windy though, as I said earlier, so there are some spots that are still totally bare and others with 5-6" drifts.

 

I'd like to think that even though the DZ isn't all that dynamic it could still be a boone to any location it stalls over. They tend to go semi-stationary some times. Also winds are lightening up now so I could get some more uniform coverage. I'm being picky now!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Trump is the man!!

[Timmy]

It's snowing here still as good as it has all day. Even though the radar is deteriorating

[Jesse]

Mark trended temps lower for the next 2-3 days. Probably due to more snowcover. Highs at or below freezing and lows of 19 and 16 Friday and Saturday mornings, respectively.

[Deweydog]

It's about the same here too. It's been pretty windy though, as I said earlier, so there are some spots that are still totally bare and others with 5-6" drifts.

 

I'd like to think that even though the DZ isn't all that dynamic it could still be a boone to any location it stalls over. They tend to go semi-stationary some times. Also winds are lightening up now so I could get some more uniform coverage. I'm being picky now!!

 

We definitely benefited from the lack of wind this go around, although at this point it hasn't been a whole lot more snow overall.  

[Goducks09]

It's snowing here still as good as it has all day. Even though the radar is deteriorating

 

Looks like the dry slot is moving to the SE.  It may begin snowing in PDX again shortly.

[Timmy]

Hearing reports of some 3-4 hour commutes around Portland and even some people abandoning their cars on the interstate.

 

Also hearing there may still be school buses trying to get kids home.

 

Can anyone confirm?

 

Pretty amazing what a couple inches can do around here.

A major route from Columbia county to Washington county (conrnelius pass) is closed due to a jackknifed truck.

School busses are meeting parents on highways.

 

My sister and bro in law just got home from pdx, left at 3:30. Usually 35 minutes