December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

How much do you have now? I was at 2.5 in last I measured in Hillsboro.

Maybe closing in on 2".

[Timmy Supercell]

42 degree rain this evening. More than half of my snow has melted. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

42 degree rain this evening. More than half of my snow has melted. 

 

Good thing you don't care. I would be crying. It's 57 here in Las Vegas.

[TT-SEA]

Sunday system is back on 00Z GFS.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121500/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

[MossMan]

Yep

[ShawniganLake]

30/18 and mostly cloudy here today. Everything is either covered in snow or frost. Depending on sun exposure the snow depth here is 6-8".

[MossMan]

I had a 30/22 day

[Bryant]

Sunday system is back on 00Z GFS.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121500/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

Yeah, but very quick transition

[Jesse]

Looks like most of the deformation action has shifted north. Longview should be getting hit pretty good right now. We got maybe 10-15 minutes of light to moderate snow out of it.

 

Wonder if there's a chance it shifts back south when the low departs off to the east.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the totals reported so far it looks like Salem ended up with 4-5" depending on the part of town. Silverton had 4.2" 

 

Looks like most of the metro was 1.5-4"

 

Officially PDX had 1.5" as of 825pm

[Deweydog]

Another chilly Xmas on the GFS.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Snow advisory for parts of south Washington now.

[EA_TTD]

Another chilly Xmas on the GFS.

http://www.dangerouslybored.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/clown-7.jpg

[FroYoBro]

Looks like most of the deformation action has shifted north. Longview should be getting hit pretty good right now. We got maybe 10-15 minutes of light to moderate snow out of it.

 

Wonder if there's a chance it shifts back south when the low departs off to the east.

HRRRRRR has it weakening quickly as it starts to move back south. Probably just some last dying snow flurries. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Hell of a powerful Virga storm tonight in the southern end of the Puget Sound... We should all seek shelter soon! 

[Deweydog]

All in all the models didn't do too bad. GFS was probably the dunce but not by a wide margin.

[Jesse]

HRRRRRR has it weakening quickly as it starts to move back south. Probably just some last dying snow flurries.

Well it was fun while it lasted.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just looking at radar and such I think most of the action is over. 

[MossMan]

...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another chilly Xmas on the GFS.

 

GEM agrees. 

[DareDuck]

My brother in The Dalles reported 6" a while ago. My friends parents in Bend are saying they are approaching 20". Silverton has 4", Stayton 2". Doesn't sound like it was a huge storm for my place, but maybe a couple inches. IDK my fiancee is at work and her parents don't really care about snow...

Do you know which part of Bend? I'm at 14" so them being at 20" would mean they're south or west of town I'd think.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Another chilly Xmas on the GFS.

Ho Ho Ho *Yawn!*

[MossMan]

GEM agrees.

How chilly? Puget Sound screwed in the snow department again?

[Kayla]

Where do you live?

 

1,100' in the West Hills in Portland.

[Kayla]

All in all the models didn't do too bad. GFS was probably the dunce but not by a wide margin.

 

I actually think the NAM was the clear winner in this one.

[Shawn]

3 3/4 inches in Scappoose.  Still snowing lightly but looks like its wrapping up.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Do you know which part of Bend? I'm at 14" so them being at 20" would mean they're south or west of town I'd think.

 

South, I think near "Knott Road."

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Which model showed Salem/Marion County scoring, with even lighter amounts around Stayton in S. Marion Co. I think that was the EURO. 

[Deweydog]

I actually think the NAM was the clear winner in this one.

 

The NAM, Euro and Canadian did fairly well.  But the GFS wasn't too out of whack, just light on the QPF overall.  

[The Swamp]

Cold with out snow? No thanks.

 

I'd rather have 58 and light drizzle.

[Tyler Mode]

Snowing lightly here in BG.  Absolutely screwed in the snow department when compared to points north, east, south and west.  1/2" maybe.

 

Did enjoy all of the blowing snow on my 2.5 hour drive home, which compared to others was apparently pretty short.

[Skagit Weather]

The WRF has been falling apart the last couple of days. It keeps coming out an hour or more late and the long range hasn't updated in a couple days. Not to mention the issues it has had actually forecasting snow and precip which seem to have been much worse the last week or two than normal.

[snow_wizard]

Still looking like lots of potential for week 2.  It's a pretty big deal when you consider how much cold weather we have already had.  As I have said a million times the snow situation will even itself out.  Always has...always will.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF has been falling apart the last couple of days. It keeps coming out an hour or more late and the long range hasn't updated in a couple days. Not to mention the issues it has had actually forecasting snow and precip which seem to have been much worse the last week or two than normal.

 

I have no idea what the hell has been going on this week.  Tons of data problems, slow models, and whatnot.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My brother up to 8" in The Dalles now. 

[HighlandExperience]

Still looking like lots of potential for week 2.  It's a pretty big deal when you consider how much cold weather we have already had.  As I have said a million times the snow situation will even itself out.  Always has...always will.

 

Hope you are right. This is two weeks of wasted cold already. I'll be sad if we transition Sunday into warm rain.  I think it is safe to say that we won't see any dusting even in King County tonight. That band is falling apart as it reaches Pierce County. 

 

How much longer can luck be on our side? =(

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still looking like lots of potential for week 2.  It's a pretty big deal when you consider how much cold weather we have already had.  As I have said a million times the snow situation will even itself out.  Always has...always will.

 

It does, looks like a more ideal pattern for my location too...

 

Did you see the CFS today?! WOW!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Remarkable how nearly 100% of that showing up on radar is Virga... 

 

 

[Perturbed Member]

I think the GFS actually did better than I thought it was going to do this afternoon. I got about 2.8 inches a bit east of Hillsboro and I think the GFS had 2 inches. GFS was a bit light on the QPF and kept the precip maybe a bit too far south, but in retrospect the GFS performed acceptably. Some areas in the metro, mainly south and east did seem to push 4-5 inches which does verify the NAM/HRRR more.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Cold with out snow? No thanks.

 

I'd rather have 58 and light drizzle.

Me too... thank you... Just a big tease a total waist.