December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Heavy Snow]

Oh wow, I just took a look at the updated run of the 00z GFS and I don't think I've ever seen as big a Block as it's showing at day 15. It's not in the sweet spot yet and not amplified but from just a size stand point it's GARGANTUAN! I know it's in the so called "clown" range but this definitely has some merit to it.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121500/360/500h_anom.na.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Uhhh...So there were widespread 6-8" rain amounts in SW Oregon today...Dynamic...

[Skagit Weather]

Uhhh...So there were widespread 6-8" rain amounts in SW Oregon today...Dynamic...

 

Yep, just a tad moist down near the CA/OR border...

 

[BLI snowman]

Looks like my total was 2.75", light snow still going but wrapping up now. Should be a nice next few days.

[Brennan]

I'm glad the driving in snow conversations are over. Anybody can drive in snow, nobody can drive on ice. When it snows in the PNW the roads turn to complete . The difference between compact snow on the roads is 10x different than the snow on top of compact ice that is pretty common here... i've been in anchorage on compact snow and 0*... its like driving on hard sand.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON
350 AM PST THU DEC 15 2016

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT PORTLAND AIRPORT...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 2.3 INCHES WAS SET AT PORTLAND AIRPORT
YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD FOR DECEMBER 14 AT PORTLAND
AIRPORT...
WHICH WAS A TRACE SET BACK IN 1987.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I guess PDX recorded a fat 0 on 12-14-08?

[MossMan]

27 and cloudy...and snowless. Sounds like a very quick snow to rain transition on Saturday night and above normal temps starting Monday through the extended according to the Seattle AFD.

[TT-SEA]

27 and cloudy...and snowless. Sounds like a very quick snow to rain transition on Saturday night and above normal temps starting Monday through the extended according to the Seattle AFD.

 

 

Yeah... we might have to wait awhile now.   

 

Models still hint at another good period starting up in week.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In Kansas City this morning, no snow on the ground, but all the ponds and rivers are frozen

[TT-SEA]

In Kansas City this morning, no snow on the ground, but all the ponds and rivers are frozen

 

Its -8 in Minneapolis this morning with about 6 inches of snow on the ground and another 6-10 inches of WAA snow on the way tomorrow... and then below zero all weekend.

 

Nice warm up... bring 6-10 inches of snow and then it gets colder.     

[Jesse]

Looks like I might have picked up another half inch or so overnight. Cloudy with a temp of 28.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some snow showers moving through the mid valley

[Tyler Mode]

Looks like I might have picked up another half inch or so overnight. Cloudy with a temp of 28.

There were a couple of nice bands that moved in overnight, dusting everything again.  Amazing how BG was the black hole of snow.  Shadowing from Silver Star I believe.  1/2" here.

 

Currently 29 and cloudy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Its -8 in Minneapolis this morning with about 6 inches of snow on the ground and another 6-10 inches of WAA snow on the way tomorrow... and then below zero all weekend.

 

Nice warm up... bring 6-10 inches of snow and then it gets colder.

Forecasting 0 in KC Sunday am

[The Swamp]

At my location we got 1/32" of an inch of snow over night.

[Tyler Mode]

The bolded makes no sense to me. Wet, slushy snow isn't any more "slick" than dry snow, and if anything warmer pavement temperatures prevent black ice formation, etc. I also disagree with #1, to some extent.

 

Having driven in Alaska when temps are below 0 with snow, I can tell you it's very much different.  The snow is almost sticky.  Of course, that doesn't mean you can't slide, but it certainly isn't as easy as it is here. 

 

Last night driving home on a completely level road, I barely tapped my brakes and was immediately sliding.

[The Swamp]

On to milder and rainy next week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some palpable angst from some folks this morning

[snow_wizard]

I actually got just enough snow last night to make it look like winter.

 

The longer range continues to look good with the ECMWF ensemble having it's best run for the final week of the month. It has a robust Aleutian ridge, Western trough, SE ridge pattern.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Checked to see if it was snowing outside this morning and stepped in a huge pile of dog sh*t in my living room, only to find out.... Its not snowing and I have green grass.

 

Awesome.

Hopefully you taught that dog a lesson

[Phil]

Having driven in Alaska when temps are below 0 with snow, I can tell you it's very much different. The snow is almost sticky. Of course, that doesn't mean you can't slide, but it certainly isn't as easy as it is here.

 

Last night driving home on a completely level road, I barely tapped my brakes and was immediately sliding.

I was referring to the earlier comment suggesting that snowfall "right at 32 degrees" is somehow more slippery on roads than snowfall in colder temperatures, which isn't true. Both cases will involve slush on the roads, which will re-freeze, especially if temps fall into the teens and below (where chemical treatments no longer work effectively).

 

I've driven in multiple-dozens of different snowfalls of varying consistencies and temperatures, from the clam chowder under mid-30s temperatures to pixie dust in single digit temperatures. Factors like pavement temperature, type of chemicals used, solar radiation, air temperature, wind speed, etc, all matter in terms of the degree of melting and slush formation that can re-freeze.

 

Generally, except for the obvious pain that is black ice and frozen slush, I find snow that falls in the mid-20s to be the most difficult to drive in, because treatments still melt the snow into slush which then tries to re-freeze quickly thereafter.

 

Usually, the "right at freezing" stuff is less apt to re-freeze on the roads in the first place, and with effective treatment it sometimes isn't all that bad.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I actually got just enough snow last night to make it look like winter.

 

The longer range continues to look good with the ECMWF ensemble having it's best run for the final week of the month. It has a robust Aleutian ridge, Western trough, SE ridge pattern.

Good nes and glad you got snow

[MossMan]

Checked to see if it was snowing outside this morning and stepped in a huge pile of dog sh*t in my living room, only to find out.... Its not snowing and I have green grass.

 

Awesome.

happens!

[FroYoBro]

I have had a few flurries flying around this morning. A beautiful morning with about 2.5 inches of snow. 

[HighlandExperience]

I actually got just enough snow last night to make it look like winter.

 

The longer range continues to look good with the ECMWF ensemble having it's best run for the final week of the month. It has a robust Aleutian ridge, Western trough, SE ridge pattern.

Looks like a light dusting south of Seattle in many places

[Skagit Weather]

It looks like it's pretty cold this morning up in Whatcom county with BLI at 19F and many other weather stations in the mid teens. 24F here, but the next couple of nights should be much colder with a little clearing.

[crf450ish]

Looks like a zonal flow pattern next week.   which means its going to warm up for me, might get some snow....I hope the cold returns before X-Mas! 

[HighlandExperience]

Well, this is nice...

How long do you think we can hold onto snow before it changes?

[Skagit Weather]

How long do you think we can hold onto snow before it changes?

 

If you're asking about the storm on Sunday, this shows a wet storm on Christmas.

[TT-SEA]

Well, this is nice...

 

 

Christmas Eve miracle... 50 degrees with heavy rain!   

[HighlandExperience]

At face value, that is rain from start to finish.

I was thinking of the moisture coming in this sunday

 

Edit: doesn't look like anything impressive coming this weekend out to hour 72

[PV=nRT]

Its -8 in Minneapolis this morning with about 6 inches of snow on the ground and another 6-10 inches of WAA snow on the way tomorrow... and then below zero all weekend.

 

Nice warm up... bring 6-10 inches of snow and then it gets colder.     

My daughter lives in Madison Wisconsin and it is -1F right now.  She is scheduled leave for Portland on Saturday but they are expecting another 6-12" snow tomorrow and early Saturday and is concerned she might have problems getting out.  The positive is this part of the country deals with snow and ice much better than Portland and Seattle.  I usually try to spend a week with her during the winter each year.  Last year we were able to walk on one of the lakes that surround Madison. Ice was a foot thick...it was cool.

 

She also told me the heater in her car went out this morning...not good!

[crf450ish]

Is this a reliable source to see what my temps are looking like approaching christmas. I know its a little far out, but I'm pissed that its warming up. At this point I want so badly to hang onto the cold air over here. Im terrified of loosing what little snow I have. 

[luminen]

20F and clear right now. 

[HighlandExperience]

[MossMan]

Well, this is nice...

Merry Christmas! Why do I have this gut feeling that after Sunday we are going to have a looser pattern for the lowlands until February...hope to the snow gods that I am wrong. 

[crf450ish]

I thought you lived in central wa? You will have plenty snow this season

I know that dude....  My main question is about the cold. No doubt I will have snow. Just don't want the cold air to flush completely out before x mas. 

[epiceast]

Had a good snowfall last night in Missoula. 6" and counting, fortunately the northward jog of the low by 50 miles helped me out a little bit too. Still don't have a total depth of a foot on the grass, but it might happen by afternoon today if the heavy snow band doesn't move south too much.

[chinook]

1.25"  to 1.5" in the McMinnville area.  

 

Currently 27f.  

 

We were on the western edge of the heavy precipitation bands last evening.  Coworkers from Salem mentioned 3 to 5 inches. 

 

I'll take it either way.  Always gives and takes.