December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Abbotsford_wx]

13F this morning up here. Still about 6" of snow on the grass (peak depth was 9" on Saturday night).

[Jesse]

I actually got just enough snow last night to make it look like winter.

 

The longer range continues to look good with the ECMWF ensemble having it's best run for the final week of the month. It has a robust Aleutian ridge, Western trough, SE ridge pattern.

I'm glad to hear that you got some snow Jim!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Yep, slow moving NW fronts are not a snow friendly way to transition out of the cold. It happened at least twice in 2013/2014 and in spite of some very cold airmasses it was for the most part a straight to rain transition.

[Trainwreck]

Sitting at 14 degrees right now in Madras Or. Running my dairy route and am missing about half the stops due to how much snow is here. Redmond tomorrow night is suppose to be -8. Grrrr

[Jesse]

Hoping today can stay pretty overcast then it clears out and gets very chilly tonight. Should be the best setup for preserving the snow. Tomorrow and Saturday both look cold enough to hold the snow in place regardless of any sunshine.

[MossMan]

To my untrained eye the 12z looks like crap through Christmas...not looking good boys and girls...not looking good at all.

[Jesse]

About to go for a walk. It is pretty gorgeous out there. Still only 28.

[HighlandExperience]

12z GFS keeps this weekend mostly dry, with precip finally showing up on Monday morning... when it's too warm for snow.

 

I am just loving how the models are looking this morning!!! <_>

Very sad to see all this cold wasted. Very similar to 2014. I guess will try again in 2017

[BLI snowman]

I guess PDX recorded a fat 0 on 12-14-08?

 

PDX didn't record snow at all back then, that was all done at the NWS office. This appears to be the first month since 1995 that PDX has actually recorded snowfall.

[Goducks09]

GEM looks juicier for Sunday here in NW Oregon.

[Tyler Mode]

Hoping today can stay pretty overcast then it clears out and gets very chilly tonight. Should be the best setup for preserving the snow. Tomorrow and Saturday both look cold enough to hold the snow in place regardless of any sunshine.

Worried about the cloud cover that starts to move in Saturday after midnight which could keep temps from fulling being realized.

 

I bet Brush Prairie will be a big winner for low temps.  They are usually a touch colder than Battle Ground anyway, and they have 1-2" more snow cover now too.

[HighlandExperience]

GEM looks juicier for Sunday here in NW Oregon.

Doesn't look bad for western WA. Perhaps will see some light snow. Certainly looks better than what we saw last night.

[BLI snowman]

Worried about the cloud cover that starts to move in Saturday after midnight which could keep temps from fulling being realized.

 

I bet Brush Prairie will be a big winner for low temps.  They are usually a touch colder than Battle Ground anyway, and they have 1-2" more snow cover now too.

 

It seems like Battle Ground has been screwed a number of times recently. I'm just a few miles west of there really and it's a fairly dramatic difference.

[Deweydog]

It seems like Battle Ground has been screwed a number of times recently. I'm just a few miles west of there really and it's a fairly dramatic difference.

Yeah, we're only about five miles east and slightly south of BG proper and we picked up almost two inches.

[Guest happ]

You folks are getting the best weather in the nation. Photos please

[luvssnow_spokane]

12z GFS keeps this weekend mostly dry, with precip finally showing up on Monday morning... when it's too warm for snow.

 

I am just loving how the models are looking this morning!!!     <_>

Status Quo... Kinda how it usually... Or should I say... "Always" plays out. Joy! Well, I enjoyed my trace of snow last night because if I add that to the previous trace of snow along with the last bit of snow I got in 2012 then I would be at around 3 inches in the last 4 years.     <_ src="%7B___base_url___%7D/uploads/emoticons/default_angry.png" alt=":angry:">

[Jesse]

Worried about the cloud cover that starts to move in Saturday after midnight which could keep temps from fulling being realized.

 

I bet Brush Prairie will be a big winner for low temps. They are usually a touch colder than Battle Ground anyway, and they have 1-2" more snow cover now too.

The timing of cloud cover moving in could always shift. Friday night/Saturday morning looks like the coldest of this episode to me anyway.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Doesn't look bad for western WA. Perhaps will see some light snow. Certainly looks better than what we saw last night.

So we can see it change to rain nearly instantly?  LOL!!! lame!!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Got down to -18 at my cabin lastnight! cold airmass.

[MossMan]

Perhaps if we get very lucky maybe we might see something favorable by mid January....all we can hope for now. What a waste of a great airmass right now.

[Deweydog]

Perhaps if we get very lucky maybe we might see something favorable by mid January....all we can hope for now. What a waste of a great airmass right now.

Weather beyond 7-10 days is difficult to forecast.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I can not believe some of you guys get bummed out on a model run showing rain 240 hrs from now! hahahaha.  

[Kayla]

GEM looks juicier for Sunday here in NW Oregon.

 

Yeah 12z GEM gives PDX area another 2-3" of snowfall Saturday night/Sunday. Will be interesting to see what the Euro says this morning.

[Jesse]

I can not believe some of you guys get bummed out on a model run showing rain 240 hrs from now! hahahaha.

It's more an overreaction to the lack of snow for some last night than anything.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It's more an overreaction to the lack of snow for some last night than anything.

It's a age thing.. I used to freak out when we didn't get snow back in the day. Now I don't care to much. If it happens it happens...

[stuffradio]

Today CPC updated their January graphic and JFM graphic, and it's calling for a La Niña pattern. The CFSv2 monthly is increasingly getting colder for the west coast for January too, much like it did for December.

[Jesse]

Today CPC updated their January graphic and JFM graphic, and it's calling for a La Niña pattern. The CFSv2 monthly is increasingly getting colder for the west coast for January too, much like it did for December.

Worth mentioning that December 1949 was pretty mild the last ten days of the month, after the earlier warning shots.

[DareDuck]

Finished with 15" of new snow at my house in Bend. Currently cloudy and 12 degrees. -6 is the forecast low tomorrow night here

[stuffradio]

Worth mentioning that December 1949 was pretty mild the last ten days of the month, after the earlier warning shots.

The 850's and thickness is getting much warmer on the 12Z GFS after this weekend, but the 850's are mostly under 0 and thickness kind of alternates around the low 530's and below 530. Overall, not torching but not arctic, just a chilly pattern. It's still quite possible the OP turns colder by the middle of next week? Maybe I will have to delay my outdoor planted Lettuce until May

[Jesse]

The 850's and thickness is getting much warmer on the 12Z GFS after this weekend, but the 850's are mostly under 0 and thickness kind of alternates around the low 530's and below 530. Overall, not torching but not arctic, just a chilly pattern. It's still quite possible the OP turns colder by the middle of next week? Maybe I will have to delay my outdoor planted Lettuce until May

I hope so!

 

And yeah next week isn't terrible.

[Kayla]

Ended up with 5" of snowfall here. Dropped down to 22º during the height of the storm yesterday afternoon. Winds were ripping (50+ mph) all day so not much accumulation on the vegetation but plenty of two foot deep snow drifts along with some completely bare spots! Currently sitting at 25º.

 

[Jesse]

It's a age thing.. I used to freak out when we didn't get snow back in the day. Now I don't care to much. If it happens it happens...

I think you'd be surprised how old some of the people complaining are.

[CTA]

Worth mentioning that December 1949 was pretty mild the last ten days of the month, after the earlier warning shots.

On Weatherbell, both Joe's said the pattern favors western troughing for the next few weeks.  The -QBO is favoring a SE ridge.  So, hopefully more goodies to come!

[liquidsnow]

I think you'd be surprised how old some of the people complaining are.

 

Age doesn't matter my friend. People complain about everything...

-Weather

-Sports

-Politics

-Traffic

-Food

-Money

-Sex

-Music

 

I have witnessed many bar fights over tiny stupid matters so I'll give a guy a pass to vent out his frustrations on a message board. Now, if he goes to work and starts a fist fight over 50 degree rain....

 

http://i.imgur.com/91sn32Q.jpg

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I used to get so mad at the weather it was stupid.. When i was 30 i smashed a computer. When i was 21 i called steve pool and called him a idiot! so stupid like he had control over the weather!! lol..

[Jesse]

Age doesn't matter my friend. People complain about everything...

-Weather

-Sports

-Politics

-Traffic

-Food

-Money

-Sex

-Music

 

I have witnessed many bar fights over tiny stupid matters so I'll give a guy a pass to vent out his frustrations on a message board. Now, if he goes to work and starts a fist fight over 50 degree rain....

 

 

That's sort of what I was saying.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I have a pine cone drying out in my house right now..  

[liquidsnow]

I used to get so mad at the weather it was stupid.. When i was 30 i smashed a computer. When i was 21 i called steve pool and called him a idiot! so stupid like he had control over the weather!! lol..

 

LOL, he's not even a meteorologist. Speaking of which, can anyone explain why our Mets suck? I miss Jeff Renner and Harry Wappler...two great meteorologist that used to know their stuff.

[Tyler Mode]

I think something similar happened in 2013? Or maybe 2009?  I can't remember.  We had a dusting that drifted around here, yet as you went west on 502, it became progressively more snowy.  By the time I got to I-5, there was 3" or so.  I think we do better with more warm air advection events which transition to rain.  Easterly and southeasterly flow kills our precip here.

It seems like Battle Ground has been screwed a number of times recently. I'm just a few miles west of there really and it's a fairly dramatic difference.

 

[Phil]

Forecasting 0 in KC Sunday am

Why can't these subzero dewpoints occur in summer?