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December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

stuffradio

By stuffradio
in West of the Rockies

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MR.SNOWMIZER
MR.SNOWMIZER

Been a emotional day.. First time in 27 years i went and picked a Christmas tree without my woman but me and my son made the best of it and had a good time. Its been a real test as a father dealing wi

jaya
jaya

Well, I don't have access to everything that I'd like to look at. With that said, tonight will be tricky with the strong offshore flow. I've seen it go both ways. In one case in 2014 I believe, models

Gradient Keeper
Gradient Keeper

I wish you all a Merry Christmas. I hope you can find joy and happiness. Appreciate the ones you have with you during this Holiday season.   http://i.imgur.com/fhWgu21.jpg

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted

It's more an overreaction to the lack of snow for some last night than anything.

That is exactly it...its very disappointing. Every moment is precious when it comes to snow around here since the atmosphere has to do major acrobats to just get us people west of the cascades a chance with the cold air. Oh well, life goes on.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted

It's a age thing.. I used to freak out when we didn't get snow back in the day. Now I don't care to much. If it happens it happens...

I'm 40...and I think Jim is older than I am...I don't think its an age thing. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
Posted

12z Euro says flurry storm for PDX on Saturday night/Sunday! Definitely worth keeping an eye on though, especially with the GEM on board for another 2-3" of snowfall.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Goducks09 Newbie

Goducks09

Posted
Posted

12z Euro says flurry storm for PDX on Saturday night/Sunday! Definitely worth keeping an eye on though, especially with the GEM on board for another 2-3" of snowfall.

 

Definitely going to try and enjoy the scenery around town the next few days!  Nothing is guaranteed and it sounds like it may wash away next week.  Hopefully the mets are wrong about the quick transition next week (although Mark is extremely confident about it being quick).

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted

I used to get so mad at the weather it was stupid.. When i was 30 i smashed a computer. When i was 21 i called steve pool and called him a idiot! so stupid like he had control over the weather!! lol..

WOW! I have never smashed a computer or called any on air mets...worse thing I have ever done is get whiny on the weather forum

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted

I will say once I get property somewhere in Eastern Wa I will be a lot less antsy....I think that is one of the reasons why Mr. Snowmizer is a lot more chill about it. Don't forget to take selfies of the pine cone eating! :) 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
Posted

Definitely going to try and enjoy the scenery around town the next few days!  Nothing is guaranteed and it sounds like it may wash away next week.  Hopefully the mets are wrong about the quick transition next week (although Mark is extremely confident about it being quick).

 

Yeah, hard not to feel incredibly lucky to have all this snow around for the next 4-5 days and some very chilly nights coming up.

  • Like 1

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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MR.SNOWMIZER Grand Master

MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted
Posted

I will say once I get property somewhere in Eastern Wa I will be a lot less antsy....I think that is one of the reasons why Mr. Snowmizer is a lot more chill about it. Don't forget to take selfies of the pine cone eating! :)

I do what I say. I will video me trying to smoke a ******* pine cone.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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BLI snowman Grand Master

BLI snowman

Posted
Posted

Definitely going to try and enjoy the scenery around town the next few days!  Nothing is guaranteed and it sounds like it may wash away next week.  Hopefully the mets are wrong about the quick transition next week (although Mark is extremely confident about it being quick).

 

I actually think we could struggle to hit 45 in the next 7-10 days. Just depends on if any strong lows can develop to mix things up over us. As it stands now any offshore or dead gradient situation is going to lead to pretty cold temps, especially with the mountains of snow now throughout the Columbia Basin.

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted

I do what I say. I will video me trying to smoke a ******* pine cone.

All of us on the forum need to get together someday...I have a feeling it would be a fun time!

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

The pattern shown on the models would lead to a very quick transition. It does happen sometimes. December 1998 is a good example of that

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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luvssnow_spokane Community Regular

luvssnow_spokane

Posted
Posted

All of us on the forum need to get together someday...I have a feeling it would be a fun time!

We can all smoke pine cones together, make fake snow, drive up and down all the hills in Seattle that don't exist, and reminisce about when it used to snow here.

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My Weather Station

https://tempestwx.com/station/61434

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

The weenism is out of control today. Now I see how ridiculous I look sometimes. Yikes my apologies

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

On Weatherbell, both Joe's said the pattern favors western troughing for the next few weeks. The -QBO is favoring a SE ridge. So, hopefully more goodies to come!

As Flatiron noted, we're in a +QBO, which statistically favors a more -EPO/-WPO in a Niña (on a seasonal resolution) as well as a sharper SE ridge response (as opposed to the -QBO which favors a +EPO/Plains ridge, again, on a seasonal resolution).

 

However, the +QBO also favors a strong early/mid winter PV, which can hurt w/ NAM/NAO in some years, and can also assist in other years when feedbacks to wave interactions w/ PV align right to produce properly oriented cross polar flow/MPHP.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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luvssnow_spokane Community Regular

luvssnow_spokane

Posted
Posted

As Flatiron noted, we're in a +QBO, which statistically favors a more -EPO/-WPO in a Niña (on a seasonal resolution) as well as a sharper SE ridge response (as opposed to the -QBO which favors a +EPO/Plains ridge, again, on a seasonal resolution).

 

However, the +QBO also favors a strong early/mid winter PV, which can hurt w/ NAM/NAO in some years, and can also assist in other years when feedbacks to wave interactions w/ PV align right to produce properly oriented cross polar flow/MPHP.

thanks for clarifying I was really wondering about all of that.  :huh:  :wacko:

My Weather Station

https://tempestwx.com/station/61434

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

I used to get so mad at the weather it was stupid.. When i was 30 i smashed a computer. When i was 21 i called steve pool and called him a idiot! so stupid like he had control over the weather!! lol..

Wow lol. The only time I really recall losing my s**t was Boxing Day 2010.

 

Actually coming up on the 6yr anniversary of that one, and I'm still sore about it, as if it were yesterday. Horrible.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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CTA Newbie

CTA

Posted
Posted

As Flatiron noted, we're in a +QBO, which statistically favors a more -EPO/-WPO in a Niña (on a seasonal resolution) as well as a sharper SE ridge response (as opposed to the -QBO which favors a +EPO/Plains ridge, again, on a seasonal resolution).

 

However, the +QBO also favors a strong early/mid winter PV, which can hurt w/ NAM/NAO in some years, and can also assist in other years when feedbacks to wave interactions w/ PV align right to produce properly oriented cross polar flow/MPHP.

My bad.  He said Westerly QBO.

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

We all forgive you Andy. :wub:

Andy?!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

From 4AM Friday to 4AM Sunday.

Glorious

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

Posted
Posted

Temp holding steady at 30 here.

 

BLI is 26 at noon, racking up a pretty impressive stretch of cold now.

Yup. PDX holding at 31 as of noon. I bet they bump up to 33 or so today but tomorrow and Saturday could be good for 32 or lower highs there. Maybe a 19 thrown in one of those mornings if things work out.

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BLI snowman Grand Master

BLI snowman

Posted
Posted

Yup. PDX holding at 31 as of noon. I bet they bump up to 33 or so today but tomorrow and Saturday could be good for 32 or lower highs there. Maybe a 19 thrown in one of those mornings if things work out.

 

Saturday is probably the best bet at this point. Wouldn't be surprised to see us stay under 30 in spots around here, timing of the cloudcover looks pretty ideal.

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Winterdog Veteran

Winterdog

Posted
Posted

Temp holding steady at 30 here.

 

BLI is 26 at noon, racking up a pretty impressive stretch of cold now. 

I just love being perched here between the arctic air and the snow.  34 and climbing here after a nice blanket of insulating clouds all night.  They may hang around and help keep us cozy tonight as well.  Bye bye from Neverland where sometimes the puddles freeze.

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PV=nRT Newbie

PV=nRT

Posted
Posted

My daughter just forwarded this too me, Special Weather Statement for Madison, WI. Now this is a Winter Weather Statement.  Madison averages 45-50 inches of snow annually, about the same I believe as Spokane.  Prior to Madison she lived in Burlington, VT (85" snow annually).  If your looking for a place to live that has interesting weather virtually the entire year this is the place.  The wind does blow a lot however as downtown Madison, where she lives is wedged between two lakes.  UW is about a half mile from her condo.  Madison has a very good road cam setup and it is easy to monitor the weather in situations like this.  She told me she would normally be excited for this but really wants to come home for a few days.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1017 AM CST THU DEC 15 2016

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED.

A LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL FROM LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT CREATING
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
2O TO 35 BELOW ZERO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.


1017 AM CST THU DEC 15 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CST
SATURDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM
FRIDAY TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.


* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...7 TO 11 INCHES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
IMPACT THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.


&&

Location: 10 miles south of downtown Portland between Gladstone and Milwaukie

 

Elevation: 335'

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