Tom Posted December 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 A little more pressing from the HP on the 12z Euro run through 12z Fri...system a tad slower to eject also it seems... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121212/ecmwf_T850_us_5.png Yesterday's 12z... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121112/ecmwf_T850_us_6.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Not sure what the EURO shows for waa snows but looks like it might get squashed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 12z Euro...a touch south?? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121212/ecmwf_T850_us_6.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 That secondary wave hanging back may be a surprise snow for folks farther south who don't get the WAA snows... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121212/ecmwf_mslpa_us_6.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121212/ecmwf_z500a_us_6.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 12z Euro...a touch south?? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121212/ecmwf_T850_us_6.pngFor sure... Should be another good battle between the 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 For sure... Should be another good battle between the 2If it can turn the corner there and strengthen, could be pretty interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 For sure... Should be another good battle between the That secondary wave hanging back may be a surprise snow for folks farther south who don't get the WAA snows... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121212/ecmwf_mslpa_us_6.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121212/ecmwf_z500a_us_6.pngI might like this solution. As long as the secondary wave doesn't go to far south. We will see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 If it can turn the corner there and strengthen, could be pretty interesting.As model the high to the north probably overwhelms it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 It's a good time to throw the towel in for southern ia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 For sure... Should be another good battle between the 2 It would be interesting what the snowfall map looks like with the low in this location. Does it race northeastward or get squashed as gosaints mentioned? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 As always, if someone can post the euro snowfall map it is much appreciated. Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Looks like it gets squashed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Its no Bueno! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 It's a good time to throw the towel in for southern iaLol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Chicago does fairly well in the euro. This is another 1-2 punch type system. About .15" in the first batch of overrunning snows then .35" as the low passes to the south. Cold temps during that .35" too could pile up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Through hr 156 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 As always, if someone can post the euro snowfall map it is much appreciated. ThanksI don't have a map yet but .12" for Holdredge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 EURO a no go around this way. Nice for the Lakes again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 I don't have a map yet but .12" for HoldredgeThanks for the information. Hoping for a little more. With the low in that location we usually do really well unless it really gets pushed south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Euro, stronger HP and colder. Not used to that out of the Euro. Normally warms as it goes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Looks like the low tracks from Colorado Springs to Kansas City to western Illinois on the GFS. Just a little farther south and I think we get something (not a lot, but at this point a few inches would be appreciated.) Would you have a surf map of that? thx Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 I would take it Count me in on the action! Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 I wonder if Jim is going to start adjusting his seasonal outlook of 40" for Omaha yet. Last week he said he was staying put for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 12z GEPS... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121200/gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_21.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121200/gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_23.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121200/gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_25.png Seems to dig this storm a little more than the GEFS.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121200/gem-ens_mslpa_us_23.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 I wonder if Jim is going to start adjusting his seasonal outlook of 40" for Omaha yet. Last week he said he was staying put for now.I was just thinking the same thing watching models come in this morning, definitely still real early in the season, but I think he was banking on us getting in on the last couple storms that went to the north. Then again it was just last Friday that he did that video that he was holding his ground. I haven't heard him talk about any 30 day cycles that he has always been big about? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 50's in Central NE with single digits in SW MN,,,,, that should say enough with the snow pack in effect. Areas S of I-90 are screwed for snow with the late week system I hate to say it... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 50's in Central NE with single digits in SW MN,,,,, that should say enough with the snow pack in effect. Areas S of I-90 are screwed for snow with the late week system I hate to say it...i hear ya, what a December to forget!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 I was just thinking the same thing watching models come in this morning, definitely still real early in the season, but I think he was banking on us getting in on the last couple storms that went to the north. Then again it was just last Friday that he did that video that he was holding his ground. I haven't heard him talk about any 30 day cycles that he has always been big about?I know he was really banking on a big December I believe, and then I think he said a slower middle of the season followed by a strong finish for snowfall. I don't believe he has really mentioned the cycles yet this year though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Euro GGEM and GFS with all 8+ here and all have dif solutions for the most part Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Jim is now retired (I think) from his TV meteorologist job in Omaha and has a job at Bass Pro Shops in Council Bluffs. He still posts videos (less frequently when he was on TV) and maps, charts etc. on his facebook page. Still a really funny guy, usually sings a song about the weather. He has not mentioned yearly snowfall amounts recently, but I do believe that with several of these snow "misses" that we have had it will take a very strong Feb., March, and April to even remotely come close to 40 inches. We don't usually get much in January around here unless it is northeast Nebraska and a clipper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 50's in Central NE with single digits in SW MN,,,,, that should say enough with the snow pack in effect. Areas S of I-90 are screwed for snow with the late week system I hate to say it...Right now sitting at 46 degrees and sunny skies. The little bit of snow from last week is gone. Brown grass is all we see. So far a December to forget around this area. i hear ya, what a December to forget!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Even people I know that hate winter and snow, say they wish we could get something before Christmas. I try to explain some of the reasons we have been missed, and I told a couple people at lunch today that maybe Friday night or Saturday holds hope for a little bit but don't get your hopes up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 12z EPS...its looking unlikely that we will see a wound up solution but more of a strong wave of energy along the very tight thermal boundary which has been the recent pattern of late. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016121212/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_5.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016121212/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_6.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Well, well well.....so, whats next I see here. Snowstorm#2 for us Lakes people to track???!!! December is turning out to be a good, snowy month. A lot of posters on here will do good, since this storm seems to be larger in size. Only question is...how far south does it go? By Wednesday, models should have a better idea. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Yeah it does look to be similar areas as this past storm except I get my winds this time CPC really lovin' on mby with today's maps..red dot is mby. GRR suddenly "bullish" on system snow as well in their AFD (they do have one Met who's into winter ) (if i controlled the wx, I'd gladly share with you NE & KS peeps!) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 except I get my winds this time CPC really lovin' on mby with today's maps..red dot is mby. GRR suddenly "bullish" on system snow as well in their AFD (they do have one Met who's into winter ) (if i controlled the wx, I'd gladly share with you NE & KS peeps!) 20161212 CPC 3-7day Hazards GLs.JPG Jaster, I get dizzy reading this map. Does it show heavy snow and wind for me? BTW...ECMWF shows an all snowevent with no mixing issues and we get buried. GFS and GEFS are a tad warmer and have the low ova MI, but, still get significant accumulations. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 12z JMA kinda similar to the 12z Euro... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016121212/jma_T850_us_5.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016121212/jma_T850_us_6.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Hold the fort! 18z GFS may be spreading the love... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 I am on my phone tom. I think you are right. Will look closer in a few. Did it come a little farther south? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 14-18 inches of snow from Chicago up into southern wi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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