January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am getting the feeling areas north of Seattle are going to score big time next week. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The persistence of the Fraser Valley outflow modeled over the coming week is pretty impressive. It will certainly make things interesting now that we have some precipitation in play.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

13 in shelton.

[MossMan]

I am getting the feeling areas north of Seattle are going to score big time next week.

Next week will be very interesting up this way...looking forward to seeing how it pans out! Currently 17 after a low of 15.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

After all the clamorings of bust, myself included, lows will probably end up around where we envisioned them for this event...Highs won't, but still...18 at PDX is nothing to sneeze at in January. 

[Deweydog]

Reset???

[Jesse]

PDX hit at least 18. Wow.

 

I believe they hit 18 in January 2007 as well. I will double check later.

I think they only hit 19 in January 2007.

 

18 would be their coldest January temp since 2004 off the top of my head.

[Jesse]

Pretty amazing how fast PDX plummeted in the late night and early morning hours. When I saw they were still 30 at 2am I figured they would be lucky to get below 27.

[χιόνι (chióni)]

Low of 21 this morning.

[Skagit Weather]

Could not get the wind to die here. Usually pretty sheltered and can get the temperature to drop (18F yesterday, 2F in 2008), but not last night. Low of 22F with wind gusts all night of about 5 mph.

[Deweydog]

Pretty amazing how fast PDX plummeted in the late night and early morning hours. When I saw they were still 30 at 2am I figured they would be lucky to get below 27.

It appears they decoupled with a very dry air mass.

[Jesse]

It appears they decoupled with a very dry air mass.

 

Which only takes an act of god in January!

 

The funny thing is the last time they were this cold in January it was with an overrunning situation I believe.

[Deweydog]

Which only takes an act of god in January!

 

The funny thing is the last time they were this cold in January it was with an overrunning situation I believe.

Yeah, you have to go back a long way to find a clear night below 19 degrees in January. We were due! Might be another 20 years before it happens again. Either that or tonight.

[Jesse]

Yeah, you have to go back a long way to find a clear night below 19 degrees in January. We were due! Might be another 20 years before it happens again. Either that or tonight.

 

This is a total game changer.

[Deweydog]

Troutdale should have a shot at staying below freezing.

[Jesse]

Troutdale should have a shot at staying below freezing.

 

Strange to see it so windy there. It is calm and 18 here and we aren't THAT far away.

[Deweydog]

This is a total game changer.

1-5-17 will be known as the Sarah Palin of our climate history.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My place is great for hold onto cold air on clear days with little mixing. Really doubt I make it much above 25 today.

[Deweydog]

Strange to see it so windy there. It is calm and 18 here and we aren't THAT far away.

Weak gap wind. Should be more of a refrigerant now.

[Kayla]

PDX hit at least 18. Wow. 

 

I believe they hit 18 in January 2007 as well. I will double check later. 

 

Should be even colder tonight.

[Jesse]

1-5-17 will be known as the Sarah Palin of our climate history.

 

I can't decide if the EXTREME low is better or how grumpy you are about it.

 

Being wrong isn't the end of the world.

[Jesse]

Weak gap wind. Should be more of a refrigerant now.

 

Sure would be nice if PDX could somehow pull off a sub-freezing high today, but likely not in the cards.

[TT-SEA]

It is going to warm up...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/slp.81.0000.gif

[Kayla]

Made it down to 15º here on a very exposed hill top so you know the air aloft is still quite chilly.

 

Currently 18º dp 6º.

[Deweydog]

I can't decide if the EXTREME low is better or how grumpy you are about it.

 

Being wrong isn't the end of the world.

I don't mind being wrong. If they kept the wind mid 20's was the best they were gonna do. It was nice to see everyone clear out and calm down. Eugene really did it right.

[Kayla]

Sure would be nice if PDX could somehow pull off a sub-freezing high today, but likely not in the cards.

 

Saturday looks like a good bet.

 

Hey did you see?? Monthly mean down to freezing!

[Deweydog]

Sure would be nice if PDX could somehow pull off a sub-freezing high today, but likely not in the cards.

33-35, depending on whether the winds kicks in.

[Jesse]

Saturday looks like a good bet.

 

Hey did you see?? Monthly mean down to freezing!

 

Not bad. Today will help lower it even more.

[Kayla]

It is going to warm up...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/slp.81.0000.gif

 

Meh, not the lower levels and then just crashes back down anyway.

[Deweydog]

It is going to warm up...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/slp.81.0000.gif

BREAKING NEWS!!!!!

[TT-SEA]

Meh, not the lower levels.

 

 

When I see yellow... I know it will be a fairly effective warm up even at the surface.   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Meh, not the lower levels and then just crashes back down anyway.

That model is a P.O.S when it comes to low level air mass and the speed it warms up.

[Jesse]

When I see yellow... I know it will be a fairly effective warm up even at the surface.   

 

Don't eat yellow warmth.

[TT-SEA]

That model is a P.O.S when it comes to low level air mass and the speed it warms up.

 

 

Yes... to a point.   But its pretty emphatic with the warm up this time.    Back it off a little and its still a big warm up... maybe temporary though.

[liquidsnow]

Yes... to a point. But its pretty emphatic with the warm up this time. Back it off a little and its still a big warm up... maybe temporary though.

How warm do we get? 50 degrees?!

[Kayla]

Looks like the 12z GEM and to a lessor extent the GFS continue to hint at the idea of a snow to big ZR event back to snow Saturday to Monday. 

 

[Deweydog]

How warm do we get? 50 degrees?!

Warm enough to evaporate liquidsnow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Yes... to a point.   But its pretty emphatic with the warm up this time.    Back it off a little and its still a big warm up... maybe temporary though.

The west side yes, but the east side to warm up that fast looks impossible.

[liquidsnow]

Didn't you know 50 is the new 40?

And 40 degree rain is the 33 degree rain?

[Kayla]

Yes... to a point.   But its pretty emphatic with the warm up this time.    Back it off a little and its still a big warm up... maybe temporary though.

 

 Not realistic, especially down here.