January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Well perhaps February will be better for western Wa in terms of snowfall accumulations...with all the nearly constant cold weather we have had over the last month its quite surprising that I only have a total of 4" to show for it...usually its quite easy for my area to score big amounts when cold enough. Oregon takes the trophy once again this year! Can't wait until I move over to the other side of the mountains some day.  

[Jesse]

Really? SLE is reporting 38F and moderate rain with a decent south wind.

 

South and West Salem is at a relatively higher elevation. Many 500'+ spots.

 

Although I am pretty interested to see what form of precip the next band moving in will be up here. Still sitting at 34, DP 30 with a light ESE wind.

[Jesse]

The snow from this morning...all 1/4" by the time it was done...

 

Some of the biggest flakes I've ever seen though.  You can clearly see where they landed in the photos.

 

Temp dropped to 33 during the shower, now 37.  Typical  cold onshore flow stuff, something we haven't seen the last two winters.

 

Heavier snow and more accumulation than at any time on Saturday.

 

It was the same down here this morning. About 1/4" but some of the biggest flakes I have seen in a long time. You could see the big white puffs from where individual snowflakes hit the cars and ground. 

 

The cold surface left over from the last several days has definitely given a boost to the typical cold onshore flow. Upper airmass only supports sticking snow above 1,500 right now.

[Kayla]

when exactly does most of the precip fall?

 

Heaviest stuff is from about 10pm Tuesday to 10am Wednesday but lighter amounts continue into the afternoon.

[Kayla]

South and West Salem is at a relatively higher elevation. Many 500'+ spots.

 

Although I am pretty interested to see what form of precip the next band moving in will be up here. Still sitting at 34, DP 30 with a light ESE wind.

 

Pretty impressive that PDX still has a dew point of only 29º.

[Perturbed Member]

South and West Salem is at a relatively higher elevation. Many 500'+ spots.

 

Although I am pretty interested to see what form of precip the next band moving in will be up here. Still sitting at 34, DP 30 with a light ESE wind.

 

That makes sense.

 

Steady south winds have completely taken over by me so I'm quite likely screwed. 38F and a dp of 35. Snow mixing in for me at best.

 

PDX is still 33F though and in theory 925 and 850 temps are 0c or lower. That nice band of moderate stuff should be interesting there.

[Jesse]

Pretty impressive that PDX still has a dew point of only 29º.

 

Yeah, doesn't look like the Gorge will scour out at all today and tomorrow.

[jakeinthevalley]

Really? SLE is reporting 38F and moderate rain with a decent south wind.

West High School is around 600'. Daughter reported snowing hard. The tripcheck cams in south are around 400' and they showed heavy snow showers. I live at 400' in west and wife said it started there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm in Keizer 180' and it's dumping snow

[Deweydog]

Weird Winter Weather Advisory.

[jakeinthevalley]

I'm in Keizer 180' and it's dumping snow

Snow mixed in with the last batch that moved through McMinnville

[Kayla]

Yeah, doesn't look like the Gorge will scour out at all today and tomorrow.

 

Going to be quite the below 40's streak after this week.

[Perturbed Member]

I'm in Keizer 180' and it's dumping snow

 

Is it just the high precip rates? 

[FroYoBro]

All the way up to 38 here. This band looks like it may actually give some sticking snow to Clark County and the eastside of Portland. Pretty strong stuff. 

[Deweydog]

Is it just the high precip rates?

Strong Arctic front moving up from the south.

[Kayla]

Weird Winter Weather Advisory.

 

I feel like the NWS is running on fumes at this point... Kind of feel bad for them.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Is it just the high precip rates?

Obviously

[Deweydog]

All the way up to 38 here. This band looks like it may actually give some sticking snow to Clark County and the eastside of Portland. Pretty strong stuff.

Pretty iffy. It's up to 36 here.

[jakeinthevalley]

Strong Arctic front moving up from the south.

You mean Antarctic front.

[Deweydog]

You mean Antarctic front.

Good point.

[Perturbed Member]

Strong Arctic front moving up from the south.

 

Impressive that it made it all the way from Antarctica and across the equator. 

[TT-SEA]

Watching precip to my south and east... the remnants of the band that came through Portland this morning.     Just won't get here.    

 

Can I get some prayers for a little snow here this morning??      

[Kayla]

You mean Antarctic front.

 

Does it come with penguins??

[FroYoBro]

Pretty iffy. It's up to 36 here.

 

Ah. I thought it was still around 34 in those parts. 

[Jesse]

Ah. I thought it was still around 34 in those parts.

Lots of microclimates. I am a lot closer to the river and still 34.

 

PDX is 33.

[Timmy Supercell]

Starting to flurry. 31 degrees.

 

And looks like our garbage is being taken out now finally. We were backed up for a week.

[Bryant]

Well, on a note for the few Washington posters that are actually here and alive, the 12z ECMWF has taken away the widespread snow shown on the 00z and has (surprise!!) replaced it with a southern-favored event! In conjunction with the 12z NAM doing the same, the word 'snow' should be out of the vocabulary for anyone North of Pierce County for both Tuesday and beyond.

 

At least Oregon gets something... it's not like they haven't been deprived or anything.

Yup, pretty common theme this winter.

[jakeinthevalley]

Does it come with penguins??

They can't fly, so no

[Perturbed Member]

NWS AFD

 

The next low quickly follows, and will approach from the WSW. THe
models have been finicky on the track of this low, and where it will
make landfall adding to the already challenging forecast. This is not
too surprising since the track of the second low is dependent on the
behavior of the first low. Therefore expect the model guidance as
well as the NWS forecast to make frequent changes to the weather
forecast for Tuesday night through Thursday.

East winds will develop as the low moves towards the coast Tuesday
night and Wednesday providing the opportunity for surface
temperatures to drop below freezing before or just after
precipitation with this low arrives. There is potential for another
low elevation snow event Tuesday night or Wednesday, but the forecast
confidence on the location and amount of snow is very low at this
point.

It does look like the models are trending more towards a southern
track with having the low move onshore along the South Oregon Coast
which may favor the Central and SOuthern Willamette Valley than the
north.I suspect that the east winds will slow the northern push of
the warm front and a stalled baroclinic zone may set up. Or the other
possibility is that the drier easterly flow will limit the moisture
for the northern valley. Please be patient with us as we work through
the details of this storm the next couple of forecast periods.

 

 

 

Not sure why they say it is trending south?

[BLI snowman]

All the way up to 38 here. This band looks like it may actually give some sticking snow to Clark County and the eastside of Portland. Pretty strong stuff. 

 

It's warmed up fairly significantly, up to 37-38 in a lot of places. Probably a wet trace for most.

[HighlandExperience]

Well, on a note for the few Washington posters that are actually here and alive, the 12z ECMWF has taken away the widespread snow shown on the 00z and has (surprise!!) replaced it with a southern-favored event! In conjunction with the 12z NAM doing the same, the word 'snow' should be out of the vocabulary for anyone North of Pierce County for both Tuesday and beyond.

 

At least Oregon gets something... it's not like they haven't been deprived or anything.

I think Washington posters have given up on any snowfall this winter. It's been a good run for the past month. Maybe next winter. The 12z was a real heart breaker.

 

The proverbial carrot has teased us for 4 weeks now. Just let the westerlies punch thru.

[FroYoBro]

NWS AFD

 

The next low quickly follows, and will approach from the WSW. THe

models have been finicky on the track of this low, and where it will

make landfall adding to the already challenging forecast. This is not

too surprising since the track of the second low is dependent on the

behavior of the first low. Therefore expect the model guidance as

well as the NWS forecast to make frequent changes to the weather

forecast for Tuesday night through Thursday.

 

East winds will develop as the low moves towards the coast Tuesday

night and Wednesday providing the opportunity for surface

temperatures to drop below freezing before or just after

precipitation with this low arrives. There is potential for another

low elevation snow event Tuesday night or Wednesday, but the forecast

confidence on the location and amount of snow is very low at this

point.

 

It does look like the models are trending more towards a southern

track with having the low move onshore along the South Oregon Coast

which may favor the Central and SOuthern Willamette Valley than the

north.I suspect that the east winds will slow the northern push of

the warm front and a stalled baroclinic zone may set up. Or the other

possibility is that the drier easterly flow will limit the moisture

for the northern valley. Please be patient with us as we work through

the details of this storm the next couple of forecast periods.

 

 

 

Not sure why they say it is trending south?

 

This is from yesterday. They haven't updated the discussion yet. 

[Jesse]

I think Washington posters have given up on any snowfall this winter. It's been a good run for the past month. Maybe next winter. The 12z was a real heart breaker.

 

The proverbial carrot has teased us for 4 weeks now. Just let the westerlies punch thru.

 

SEA still has PDX beat as far as recorded snowfall this winter.

[Deweydog]

SEA still has PDX beat as far as recorded snowfall this winter.

Washington adopted PDX a few years ago.

[Kayla]

NWS AFD

 

The next low quickly follows, and will approach from the WSW. THe

models have been finicky on the track of this low, and where it will

make landfall adding to the already challenging forecast. This is not

too surprising since the track of the second low is dependent on the

behavior of the first low. Therefore expect the model guidance as

well as the NWS forecast to make frequent changes to the weather

forecast for Tuesday night through Thursday.

 

East winds will develop as the low moves towards the coast Tuesday

night and Wednesday providing the opportunity for surface

temperatures to drop below freezing before or just after

precipitation with this low arrives. There is potential for another

low elevation snow event Tuesday night or Wednesday, but the forecast

confidence on the location and amount of snow is very low at this

point.

 

It does look like the models are trending more towards a southern

track with having the low move onshore along the South Oregon Coast

which may favor the Central and SOuthern Willamette Valley than the

north.I suspect that the east winds will slow the northern push of

the warm front and a stalled baroclinic zone may set up. Or the other

possibility is that the drier easterly flow will limit the moisture

for the northern valley. Please be patient with us as we work through

the details of this storm the next couple of forecast periods.

 

 

 

Not sure why they say it is trending south?

 

Copy and paste special from yesterday.

[Perturbed Member]

This is from yesterday. They haven't updated the discussion yet. 

 

More copy and pasting huh?

[Perturbed Member]

Copy and paste special from yesterday.

 

I can understand copy and paste if nothing has changed, but it makes little sense to do it if it is factually incorrect now...

[Jesse]

I would be curious to see a map of recorded snowfall this winter for the I-5 corridor in Washington State. I feel like many areas have done pretty well aside from a relatively small piece of real estate from which we happen to have a handful of active posters (SW King county through northern Pierce County).

[HighlandExperience]

I would be curious to see a map of recorded snowfall this winter for the I-5 corridor in Washington State. I feel like many areas have done pretty well aside from a relatively small piece of real estate from which we happen to have a handful of active posters (SW King county through northern Pierce County).

Most of King County and Pierce has not done very great along the i-5 corridor. In issaquah (east of Seattle) we picked up maybe an inch or two this entire winter.

 

Places farther east along the foothills have done pretty good. SeaTac obviously had a good localized dump. And there have been periods of brief snow, but nothing special considering how long we have been in this pattern.

 

We've had multiple good snowfalls advertised in the models at various times, but nothing has panned out. Of course much better than the past several years!

[HighlandExperience]

Truth be told I shouldn't be complaining too much because I have had snow on the ground over the past week, albeit it being only about an inch. I guess my issue is with the models continuously showing Washington getting snow in the 5-10 day period only to have everything shift South as the 'event' draws near.

 

Certainly puts a spin on the "I hate how things trend North!" issue we've had for the past few years.

You live in Carnation right? I think they have done better than most spots.